Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Warren Buffett's principle of "never losing money," emphasizing that it refers to preserving intrinsic value rather than avoiding market fluctuations [2][3]. - The article argues that understanding "money" in the context of investing is crucial, as market value and net worth can fluctuate, making it impossible to avoid losses entirely [2][3]. - It highlights that buying stocks at a reasonable price, regardless of short-term price drops, does not equate to losing money if the intrinsic value remains intact [3][6]. Group 2 - The term "old Deng stock" is introduced to describe traditional companies with stable returns but declining stock prices, reflecting investor sentiment towards these stocks [5]. - Despite the negative perception, "old Deng stocks" can still represent sound investments if their fundamentals are strong and prices are reasonable, aligning with Buffett's principle [5][6]. - The article concludes that understanding the distinction between intrinsic value and market price fluctuations is essential for investors to grasp Buffett's investment philosophy [6].

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance (02628) maintains its position as the leader in the life insurance sector with a broad customer base, and the company is recommended for "overweight" by the brokerage firm [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Life achieved operating revenue of RMB 239.24 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders rose by 6.9% to RMB 40.93 billion during the same period [1] - The weighted average return on equity was 7.83%, an increase of 0.04 percentage points compared to the previous year [1] Group 2: Premium Income - Total premium income for the first half of 2025 reached RMB 525.09 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.3% [2] - First-year regular premium amounted to RMB 81.25 billion, with ten-year and above first-year regular premium accounting for 37.3% of the total [1] - Individual insurance channel premiums totaled RMB 400.45 billion, a 2.6% increase year-on-year, with renewal premiums growing by 10.4% to RMB 326.56 billion [2] Group 3: Sales and New Business Value - The company’s total sales force stood at 641,000 as of the first half of 2025, with individual insurance sales personnel remaining stable at 592,000 [2] - New business value for the first half of 2025 was RMB 285.46 billion, a growth of 20.3% compared to the same period in 2024 [2] Group 4: Investment and Solvency - As of June 30, 2025, total investment assets reached RMB 7.1 trillion, a 7.8% increase from the end of 2024 [2] - Total investment income for the first half of 2025 was RMB 127.51 billion, with an investment return rate of 3.29% [2] - Net investment income was RMB 96.07 billion, yielding a net investment return rate of 2.78% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The overall performance of A-share listed insurance companies in the first half of 2025 is stable, with revenue growth across the board, but varying business development trends among companies, with New China Life Insurance showing higher growth than its peers [1][3] Revenue Performance - China Ping An leads the industry with a revenue of 500.76 billion yuan, but its year-on-year growth is only 1% - China People's Insurance Company (CPIC) reported a revenue of 324.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate exceeding 10% - New China Life Insurance's revenue is approximately 70 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 26% [1][3] Profitability Analysis - Except for China Ping An, all listed insurance companies experienced varying degrees of profit growth, with New China Life Insurance's net profit and net profit excluding non-recurring items both exceeding 33% - China Ping An's net profit declined by 8.8%, and net profit excluding non-recurring items slightly decreased by 0.9% due to capital market fluctuations and a one-time impact from the consolidation of Ping An Good Doctor [3][5] Embedded Value Growth - All listed insurance companies saw growth in embedded value in the first half of the year, with China Ping An and New China Life Insurance showing faster growth rates of 8.20% and 8.10%, respectively [7][8] New Business Value - New business value for the listed insurance companies grew significantly, with CPIC's new business value increasing by over 70% on a comparable basis - The silver insurance channel has positively contributed to the growth of new business value, with CPIC's new business value from this channel increasing by 168.6% [8][9] Dividend Insurance Transformation - The transformation towards dividend insurance has begun to show results, with CPIC's premium income from dividend insurance growing by 40.94% year-on-year, accounting for 12.79% of total life and health insurance premiums [10][12] Single Premium Growth - The growth in new single premiums in the first half of the year was better than the same period last year, with New China Life Insurance leading with a growth rate of 100.5%, while China Ping An saw a decline of 6.1% [12][15] Cost Ratio Improvement - The comprehensive cost ratio, a key indicator of property insurance companies' operational efficiency, improved for CPIC, China Ping An, and China Taiping, indicating enhanced underwriting profitability [17][19] Non-Car Insurance Performance - Non-car insurance profitability is gradually improving, with CPIC's comprehensive cost ratio at 97.0%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, while health insurance achieved a turnaround to profitability [20][21]

Core Insights - China Taiping (00966.HK) reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of HKD 6.764 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 12.2% primarily due to improved performance in the insurance services sector [1] Financial Performance - The profit from life insurance business reached HKD 8.278 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.5% [1] - The profit from domestic property insurance business was HKD 686 million, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 84.9% due to enhanced insurance service performance [1] - The profit from reinsurance business amounted to HKD 872 million, up 74.8% year-on-year, driven by better insurance service performance and net investment results [1] Asset and Value Metrics - Total assets stood at HKD 187.41 billion, an increase of 8.1% compared to the end of the previous year, mainly due to a rise in total financial investments [1] - The contract service margin was HKD 213.2 billion, up 2.6% from the end of the previous year, influenced by newly recognized contracts and changes in the RMB exchange rate [1] - The total embedded value per share for shareholders was HKD 53.03, a 9.2% increase from HKD 48.57 at the end of the previous year, with Taiping Life's embedded value growing by 8.1% [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Life Insurance reported a 6.9% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for 1H25, reaching 40.9 billion yuan, slightly better than expectations, primarily due to losses from contracts caused by declining interest rates [1][3] Financial Performance - The pre-tax profit for 1H25 decreased by 11.5% year-on-year, aligning with expectations [1] - The new business value (NBV) showed a mixed performance with a comparable basis NBV increasing by 20.3% while the actual disclosed NBV decreased by 11.5% [2] - The interim dividend increased by 19% to 0.238 yuan per share [1] Business Trends - The new business value exceeded expectations, with a comparable basis NBV growth of 20.3% and a decline of 11.5% on an actual basis [2] - Individual insurance new premiums fell by 21.6%, but the comparable basis NBV rose by 9.5%, indicating a shift towards dividend insurance [2] - The sales force for individual insurance stood at 592,000, a slight decrease of 0.7% from Q1 but a year-on-year increase of 27.6% [2] - Bancassurance new premiums surged by 111%, attributed to strategic expansion, with the proportion of periodic premium income decreasing by 27 percentage points to 47.5% [2] - Policy quality indicators improved, with 14-month and 26-month policy persistency rates increasing by 0.6 percentage points to 92.1% and 4.2 percentage points to 88.6%, respectively [2] Marginal Contract Services and Embedded Value - The Contractual Service Margin (CSM) increased by 1.6% to 754.7 billion yuan, driven by new business inflows and interest rate changes [3] - New business CSM decreased by 31% to 26.2 billion yuan, impacted by interest rate assessments and declines [3] - The embedded value (EV) increased by 5.5% from the beginning of the year, indicating stable growth [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - China Life A/H shares are currently trading at 0.7x/0.4x 2025e P/EV [4] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2026 and its outperform rating, with the A-share target price unchanged at 38.60 yuan, corresponding to 0.7x/0.6x 2025e and 2026e P/EV [4] - The H-share target price has been raised by 24.1% to 24.33 HKD, reflecting improved liquidity and a potential upside of 1.9% from the current share price [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sunshine Insurance reported a year-on-year increase of 7.8% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025, reaching 3.39 billion yuan, with life insurance and property insurance net profits growing by 5.6% and 2.6% respectively [1][2] Group 1: Performance Summary - The net business value (NBV) of life insurance increased by 47.3% year-on-year to 4.01 billion yuan, with individual insurance and bank insurance channels growing by 23.5% and 53% respectively [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (CoR) for property insurance improved by 0.3 percentage points to 98.8%, with claims and expense ratios showing mixed trends [2] - Sunshine Insurance's total insurance premium income rose by 2.5% year-on-year to 25.27 billion yuan, with a notable increase in non-auto insurance premiums [2] Group 2: Investment and Valuation - The internal value of Sunshine Group grew by 11.0% to 128.49 billion yuan, while net assets decreased by 10.1% to 55.84 billion yuan due to the impact of interest rate declines [2] - The company is currently trading at 0.38x and 0.33x P/EV for 2025 and 2026 estimates, with a target price of 4.60 HKD and a potential upside of 2.7% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC maintains the profit forecast for Sunshine Insurance for 2025-2026, with a target price of HKD 4.60, indicating a potential upside of 2.7% based on the current trading multiples of 0.38x/0.33x P/EV for 2025e and 2026e [1] Group 1: Life Insurance Performance - Sunshine Life's new business value (NBV) increased by 47.3% year-on-year to CNY 4.01 billion in 1H25, with individual insurance and bank insurance channels growing by 23.5% and 53% respectively [2] - The contract service margin (CSM) balance for Sunshine Life reached CNY 56.08 billion, reflecting a 10.3% increase from the end of the previous year [2] - The product structure has improved significantly, with over 50% of individual insurance channel products being floating income and protection-type products [2] Group 2: Property Insurance Performance - Sunshine Property's original insurance premium grew by 2.5% year-on-year to CNY 25.27 billion in 1H25, with non-auto insurance premiums increasing by 12.5% [3] - The combined ratio (CoR) improved by 0.3 percentage points to 98.8%, with the loss ratio and expense ratio changing by +2.5 percentage points and -2.8 percentage points respectively [3] - The combined ratio for auto insurance decreased by 1.6 percentage points to 98.1%, with the proportion of household vehicle premiums increasing by 3 percentage points [3] Group 3: Investment Performance - The net and total investment yields for Sunshine were 3.8% and 4.0% respectively in 1H25, showing stable performance despite a high base effect from bond investments in 1H24 [4] - The asset allocation saw an increase in stock proportion by 1.8 percentage points compared to the end of the previous year, along with an increase in long-duration interest rate bonds to optimize the duration structure and cost-revenue matching [4] Group 4: Group Value Growth - The intrinsic value of Sunshine Group reached CNY 128.49 billion in 1H25, marking an 11.0% increase from the end of the previous year [5] - The net assets amounted to CNY 55.84 billion, primarily due to the use of a 60-day moving average of government bond yield curves for discounting traditional insurance reserves [5]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a 14% year-on-year increase in New Business Value (NBV) for H1 2025, reaching USD 2.838 billion, indicating strong growth driven by both volume and pricing factors [1][2] Financial Performance - The embedded value equity reached USD 73.7 billion, with a 5% increase per share [1] - After-tax operating profit was USD 3.609 billion, reflecting a 12% increase per share [1] - Basic free surplus generated was USD 3.569 billion, up 10% per share [1] - Interim dividend per share was HKD 0.49, a 10% increase year-on-year [1] Business Segments - The shift towards participating insurance has shown significant results, with NBV maintaining steady growth [1] - Traditional insurance accounted for 37% of the product mix (down 1 percentage point), while participating insurance rose to 43% (up 11 percentage points) [1] - Investment-linked insurance remained stable at 9% [1] Channel Performance - Agency channel NBV increased by 17% to USD 2.22 billion, contributing 78% of total NBV, with a margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 72% [2] - Partner distribution NBV grew by 8% to USD 0.804 billion, with bank assurance channels up 10% [2] - The Thai market showed outstanding profitability, with NBV margin exceeding 100% [2][3] Regional Insights - AIA China experienced a slight decrease in NBV, down 4% to USD 0.743 billion, impacted by policy adjustments [2] - AIA Hong Kong saw strong new business growth, with NBV up 24% to USD 1.063 billion, contributing 37.5% to the group [3] - Southeast Asian markets showed varied performance, with Thailand leading at a 35% increase in NBV [3] Investment Performance - The net investment return rate was 4.2%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Total investment assets increased by 7.1% to USD 309.256 billion [4] - The investment allocation remained stable, with 54% in funds and convertible bonds, 25% in equities, and 18% in bonds [4] Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued growth in NBV, particularly in the Hong Kong and Thai markets [5] - Adjustments to EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 were made, now projected at USD 0.60, 0.71, and 0.84 respectively [5] - The estimated target price for 2025 is HKD 85.9, maintaining a P/EV valuation of 1.5x [5]

Core Viewpoint - The company benefited from rapid growth in its Hong Kong and Thailand operations, with a 14% year-on-year increase in NBV for the first half of the year, alongside growth in annualized new premiums and NBVM [1][2][4] Group 1: NBV Performance - The company's NBV for the first half of the year reached $2.838 billion, a 14% increase year-on-year, with annualized new premiums up 8% and NBVM increasing by 3.4 percentage points to 57.7% [2][3] - Growth in NBV was primarily driven by the Hong Kong and Thailand markets, while the mainland China business saw a decline due to adjustments in economic assumptions [2][3] - In Hong Kong, NBV increased by 24% to $1.063 billion, with both local customers and mainland visitors contributing to double-digit growth [2][3] - Thailand's NBV rose by 35% to $522 million, driven by a one-time sales boost before new co-payment regulations took effect in March 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Mainland China Business - The mainland China business experienced a 4% decline in NBV to $743 million, primarily due to changes in economic assumptions; however, excluding this impact, NBV grew by 10% [3] - New regions established since 2019 showed strong growth, with a 36% increase in NBV for these areas in the first half of the year [3] - The company aims for a compound annual growth rate of 40% in NBV for new regions from 2025 to 2030, with plans to open 1-2 new regions each year [3] Group 3: Operating Profit - The company reported a 6% year-on-year increase in after-tax operating profit to $3.609 billion, with earnings per share growing by 12% [4] - Strong business quality was reflected in the increase of CSM amortization and positive operating variances, which contributed to a 19% rise in insurance service performance [4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 23.5% to $2.534 billion, primarily due to a 51.5% increase in financial expenses related to insurance contracts [4] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company declared an interim dividend of 49.00 Hong Kong cents per share, a 10% increase year-on-year, and completed a $1.6 billion share buyback on July 14 [5][6] - The free surplus generated in the first half of the year was $2.430 billion, reflecting a 13% year-on-year increase [5][6] - Since 2022, the company has returned $22.3 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reducing the number of shares outstanding by 13% [6] Group 5: Future Growth Potential - The company maintains a high level of shareholder returns while anticipating future growth, with projected NBV of $5.449 billion, $5.941 billion, and $6.493 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6] - The company has set a target valuation of 1.55x PEV for 2025E, corresponding to a reasonable target price of HKD 85.3, maintaining a "buy" rating [6]

Core Viewpoint - AIA Group reported a strong performance for the first half of 2025, with notable increases in new business value (NBV) and annualized new premiums, despite a decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - NBV reached $2.84 billion, up 14% year-on-year, with Q2 showing an 18.9% increase [1] - Annualized new premiums totaled $4.94 billion, reflecting an 8% year-on-year growth [1] - After-tax operating profit was $3.6 billion, a 6% increase year-on-year, with earnings per share up 12% [1] - Net profit decreased to $2.53 billion, down 24% year-on-year [1] - Embedded value stood at $70.9 billion, unchanged from the beginning of the year, with embedded value operating profit at $5.9 billion, up 9% [1] Regional Contributions - Hong Kong remained the largest contributor to the group's NBV, accounting for 35% of the total, with a 24% increase to $1.06 billion [2] - Mainland China saw a 10% increase in NBV, with Q2 showing a 15% rise; new branches contributed to a 36% increase in NBV [2] - Thailand's NBV increased by 35% to $520 million, while Singapore's rose by 16% to $260 million; Malaysia's NBV decreased by 3% due to changes in the health insurance market [2] Product Structure and Value Margin - Overall NBV margin improved by 3.8 percentage points to 57.7% [3] - Mainland China's NBV margin increased by 2 percentage points to 58.6%, driven by policy changes and product repricing [3] - Thailand's NBV margin significantly increased to 115.7% due to one-time sales in personal medical insurance [3] Distribution Channels - Agent channel NBV grew by 17%, accounting for 73.4% of total NBV, with a margin increase of 4.4 percentage points to 72% [3] - Partner channel NBV increased by 8%, with bank assurance channel NBV up 10% [3] Investment Strategy - The company reduced fixed income allocation while maintaining stable equity asset proportions [4] - The annualized net investment return was 1.9%, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company expects continued growth driven by new branches in Mainland China and strong performance in Hong Kong [4] - The embedded value forecast for 2025-2027 is $73 billion, $77.6 billion, and $82.8 billion, with corresponding growth rates of 5.8%, 6.3%, and 6.7% [4] - Current price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios are 1.37x, 1.29x, and 1.21x for the respective years, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]