证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 25 日 投资要点： | 市场数据 指数名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 4,147.23 | 0.72% | 3.08% | | 创业板指 | 3,354.82 | 1.41% | 1.83% | | 沪深 300 | 4,735.89 | 0.60% | 0.38% | | 中证 1000 | 8,426.33 | 1.52% | 8.67% | | 科创 50 | 1,473.28 | 0.54% | 4.98% | | 北证 50 | 1,547.20 | 0.77% | 5.51% | 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2026年02月25日 华源晨会精粹 20260225 固定收益 25Q4 保险公司资金运用有何变化？根据国家金融监督管理总局数据，截 至 25Q4，保险公司资金运用余额共计 38.48 万亿元，较 25Q3 增长 2.71%。截至 25Q4 险资（财产险及人身险公司，下同）债券投资余额同比增长 17.43%，其中 25Q4 单季 ...

摩根大通近期发布研报称，首次覆盖富卫集团予"增持"评级，目标价50港元，相当于预测2027财年内含 价值1.1倍。小摩预测2027财年新业务价值将达11亿美元，与友邦保险2012年12亿美元的新业务价值水 平相若。该股目前股价较其呈报内含价值存在折让，该行认为此估值属便宜。 香港联交所最新资料显示，2月20日，富卫集团(01828)股东将股票存入香港上海汇丰银行，存仓市值 27.31亿港元，占比5.64%。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，2月20日，富卫集团(01828)股东将股票存入香港上海汇 丰银行，存仓市值27.31亿港元，占比5.64%。 摩根大通近期发布研报称，首次覆盖富卫集团予"增持"评级，目标价50港元，相当于预测2027财年内含 价值1.1倍。小摩预测2027财年新业务价值将达11亿美元，与友邦保险2012年12亿美元的新业务价值水 平相若。该股目前股价较其呈报内含价值存在折让，该行认为此估值属便宜。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports is that strong improvements in free surplus and free cash flow generation are expected to rebuild market confidence in the intrinsic value of AIA Group (01299) and Prudential (02378) [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on both AIA and Prudential, citing attractive capital returns and free cash flow yield as potential drivers for stock price revaluation against intrinsic value multiples [1] - The stock prices of Prudential and AIA surged approximately 70% to 80% last year, attributed to the recovery of Asian stock markets and improved cash generation capabilities [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts significant growth in new business sales for Hong Kong life insurance in 2025, but expects normalization this year based on benchmark predictions for AIA and Prudential [2] - The firm believes there is upside risk to its assumptions, as the sales and product environment remains attractive, particularly for mainland visitors to Hong Kong [2] - Scenario analysis indicates that if Hong Kong sales maintain strong momentum (doubling the firm's benchmark growth rate), AIA and Prudential could see net earnings yield potential of 2.5% to 3.5% by 2028, along with an IFRS operating profit upside potential of 2.5% to 3% [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports is that strong improvements in free surplus and free cash flow generation are expected to rebuild market confidence in the intrinsic value of AIA Group (01299) and Prudential (02378) [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains an "overweight" rating on both AIA and Prudential, citing attractive capital returns and free cash flow yield as potential drivers for stock price revaluation against intrinsic value multiples [1] - The stock prices of Prudential and AIA surged approximately 70% to 80% last year, attributed to the recovery of Asian stock markets and improved cash generation capabilities [1] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley forecasts significant growth in new business sales for Hong Kong life insurance in 2025, but expects normalization this year based on baseline predictions for AIA and Prudential [2] - The firm believes there is upside risk to its assumptions, as the sales and product environment remains attractive, particularly for mainland visitors to Hong Kong [2] - Scenario analysis indicates that if Hong Kong sales maintain strong momentum (doubling the baseline growth rate), AIA and Prudential could see net earnings yield potential of 2.5% to 3.5% by 2028, along with an IFRS operating profit upside of 2.5% to 3% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the strong improvement in free surplus and free cash flow generation is expected to rebuild market confidence in the embedded value of AIA and Prudential [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The report highlights that the free cash flow yield and attractive capital returns may drive a revaluation of the stock prices against embedded value multiples, with strong growth momentum in Hong Kong presenting upside risks [1] - Prudential and AIA's stock prices surged approximately 70% to 80% last year, attributed to the recovery of Asian stock markets and improved cash generation capabilities [1] Group 2: Business Strategy - Both companies are focusing on optimizing their product portfolios to shorten the payback period for new business, such as increasing the proportion of health and protection products [1] - The P/EV multiples have rebounded from previous lows, with AIA at approximately 1.3 times the forecasted embedded value for 2026 and Prudential at about 0.9 times [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - New business profits drive free cash flow, which is utilized for capital returns and further growth, suggesting potential for P/EV revaluation for both stocks [1]

Core Insights - The long-term investment return assumption is a crucial parameter affecting the intrinsic value of life insurance companies, reflecting their expectations regarding capital market conditions and investment strategies. In 2024, most life insurance companies have lowered their long-term investment return assumption from 4.5% to 4.0% [9][11]. Investment Returns Analysis - From 2010 to 2024, listed life insurance companies had a total investment return that exceeded the long-term investment return assumption in only 5 out of 15 years, with the remaining 10 years showing negative deviations. The cumulative total investment return deviation for the industry is -0.38% [3][6][37]. - As of the first three quarters of 2025, the total investment return for the year is approximately 3.5%, slightly below the long-term investment return assumption of 4.0%. A strong performance in the fourth quarter could make 2025 the first year since 2020 to exceed the long-term investment return assumption [3][13]. Company-Specific Performance - In 2024, China Life's total investment return was 4.02%, while its comprehensive investment return was 5.94%, both exceeding the long-term investment return assumption of 4.0% [17][18]. - Ping An Life's total investment return for 2024 was 3.32%, with a comprehensive investment return of 7.25%, also above the long-term assumption [19][21]. - For 2024, Taikang Life's total investment return was 3.03%, while its comprehensive investment return was 7.33%, surpassing the long-term assumption [22][23]. - New China Life reported a total investment return of 3.56% and a comprehensive investment return of 6.84% for 2024, both exceeding the long-term assumption [24][25]. - PICC Life's total investment return was 3.70%, with a comprehensive investment return of 14.1%, significantly above the long-term assumption [28][29]. - AIA's estimated long-term investment return assumption for 2024 is 3.4%, which is below the 4.0% threshold, indicating a cautious outlook [30][33]. Summary of Deviations - The average deviation of total investment returns from long-term assumptions for the industry is -0.38%, while the average deviation for comprehensive investment returns is 0.66%. Companies like PICC Life and AIA show better performance with positive deviations [37][38].

Core Viewpoint - UBS estimates that AIA Group (01299) will see a 10% half-on-half increase in embedded value (EV) in the second half of 2025, compared to a 2.6% increase in the first half [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - UBS maintains the target price for AIA at HKD 88 and retains a "Buy" rating [1] - AIA is expected to report a year-on-year increase in new business value (VNB) of 18% and 17% on an actual exchange rate (AER) and constant exchange rate (CER) basis, respectively, for the third quarter, accelerating from 16% and 14% growth in the first half [1] - The strong growth is primarily driven by a robust rebound in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Market Insights - Despite the introduction of interest rate cap guidelines on July 1, AIA's new business value growth in Hong Kong remains strong, supported by the momentum from mainland visitors in the agency channel [1] - AIA's new business value in China is predicted to rebound by 20% year-on-year in the third quarter, contrasting with a 4% decline in the first half [1] - In Thailand, UBS anticipates a high single-digit year-on-year growth in new business value for AIA [1] - In Singapore, due to product mix adjustments in April, the year-on-year growth rate for new business value in the third quarter is expected to slow compared to the first half [1] - In Malaysia, new business value is expected to recover moderately as headwinds in the agency channel gradually dissipate [1] - Other markets, particularly India and Vietnam, are projected to support double-digit growth in AIA's new business value [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the analysis of the embedded value changes of listed life insurance companies for the first half of 2025, highlighting a 7.7% growth in embedded value, driven by various factors including expected returns and new business value creation [2][14]. Summary by Sections Embedded Value Changes - The embedded value of listed life insurance companies increased by 7.7% in the first half of 2025, with the expected return on the initial embedded value contributing 2.8%, new business value creation contributing 2.6%, investment return differences contributing 1.4%, and operational experience deviations contributing 0.83% [14][26]. ROEV Analysis - The overall Return on Embedded Value (ROEV) for listed life insurance companies was 6.3%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points year-on-year. Companies like China Life, Ping An Life, and Taiping Life saw a decline in ROEV, while New China Life, AIA, and Sunshine Life experienced improvements [29][30]. Factors Influencing Embedded Value - The factors influencing the embedded value changes are ranked as follows: expected return on embedded value, new business value creation, investment return differences, operational experience deviations, and changes in assumptions and models [16][18]. Detailed Breakdown of Influencing Factors - **Expected Return on Embedded Value**: Averaged 2.8%, down 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with most companies (except AIA) showing a decline [18]. - **New Business Value Creation**: Contributed 2.56%, down 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, with some companies like Ping An Life and New China Life showing improvements while others declined [18]. - **Operational Experience Deviations**: Averaged 0.83%, up 0.1 percentage points year-on-year, indicating positive impacts from actual operational experiences [23]. - **Investment Return Differences**: Averaged 1.4%, up 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, with most companies reporting positive deviations [26]. Company-Specific Insights - Sunshine Life reported the highest ROEV at 11.1%, followed by AIA at 8.6% and Ping An Life at 7.5% [30].

Group 1 - The core idea of the article revolves around Warren Buffett's principle of "never losing money," emphasizing that it refers to preserving intrinsic value rather than avoiding market fluctuations [2][3]. - The article argues that understanding "money" in the context of investing is crucial, as market value and net worth can fluctuate, making it impossible to avoid losses entirely [2][3]. - It highlights that buying stocks at a reasonable price, regardless of short-term price drops, does not equate to losing money if the intrinsic value remains intact [3][6]. Group 2 - The term "old Deng stock" is introduced to describe traditional companies with stable returns but declining stock prices, reflecting investor sentiment towards these stocks [5]. - Despite the negative perception, "old Deng stocks" can still represent sound investments if their fundamentals are strong and prices are reasonable, aligning with Buffett's principle [5][6]. - The article concludes that understanding the distinction between intrinsic value and market price fluctuations is essential for investors to grasp Buffett's investment philosophy [6].