证券研究报告·公司点评报告·保险Ⅱ [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 2025 年 08 月 27 日 证券分析师 孙婷 执业证书：S0600524120001 sunt@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 曹锟 中国平安（601318） 2025 年中报点评：银保扩张推动 NBV 快速 增长，显著增配股票投资 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 913789 | 1028925 | 1060775 | 1124317 | 1200770 | | 同比（%） | 3.8% | 12.6% | 3.1% | 6.0% | 6.8% | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 85665 | 126607 | 129672 | 142693 | 163810 | | 同比（%） | -22.8% | 47.8% | 2.4% | 10.0% | 14.8% | | 每股 EV（元/股 ...

机构：国泰海通证券 研究员：刘欣琦/李嘉木 本报告导读： 公司25H1 营运利润同比6%，中期派息同比10%，NBV 及EV 稳健增长，CSM 稳健释放，预计股东回报 持续改善，维持"增持"。 风险提示：客户需求不及预期；权益市场波动；长端利率下行。 （0.89，-25.2%）/0.71（0.98，-27.4%）美元，预计全年NBV 稳健增长，给予2025 年P/EV 为1.7 倍（按 照1 港元=0.13 元美元换算），维持目标价89.80 港元/股。 NBV 稳定增长，香港地区是主要驱动力。公司25 年上半年NBV 同比增长14%，其中年化新保费同比 8%，价值率同比提升3.4pt 至57.7%。分区域看，1）中国香港地区NBV 同比24%，其中代理人渠道NBV 同比35%，主要得益于活跃代理人增长9%以及产能提升30%推动，伙伴分销渠道NBV 同比10%，预计 得益东亚银行等合作关系持续深化。2）中国内地NBV 同比-4%，若不考虑经济假设变动影响NBV 同比 10%。产品回报率下调及银保报行合一影响下年化保费同比-7%，而价值率同比+1.9pt 至58.6%。公司25 年已于安徽、山东、重庆、浙江开展 ...

机构：中信建投证券 研究员：赵然/沃昕宇 核心观点 受益于中国香港业务和泰国业务的快速增长，上半年公司NBV 同比+14%（固定汇率），其中年化新保 费和NBVM 均有增长。 公司于2025 年3 月和4 月成功在安徽、山东、重庆和浙江开展业务，在2019 年及之后新开拓的地区已建 立一支合计超1,7 0 0 名新代理的代理队伍，区域布局的持续扩张将进一步扩大潜在客群数量并为未来 NBV 增长带来强劲动能，公司提出2025-203 0 年期间新地区NBV 复合增速40%的目标。在高质量保单 持续积累的基础上，公司中期股息每股+10%，并且今年3 月公布的新一轮1 6亿美元股份回购已于7 月 14 日完成。我们认为公司长期经营能力稳健，高增速和高股东回报并存事件 上半年公司CSM 摊销和非金融风险调整释放及其他分别同比+9%、+176%至30.43 亿美元、2.43 亿美 元，并且营运差异同比+255%至2.31 亿美元，体现公司对业务质量的强大把控能力。以上因素共同驱动 上半年保险服务业绩同比+19%至35.17 亿美元，并带动税后营运利润同比+6%至36.09 亿美元，每股增 长12%。高质量新单增长带动C ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the insurance industry, focusing on the profitability models of insurance companies, particularly life insurance firms, and the impact of regulatory changes on their financial reporting and valuation metrics [1][2][12]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Profitability Model**: Insurance companies rely on three key components for profitability: interest spread (利差), mortality difference (死差), and expense difference (费差). These reflect investment capability, actuarial accuracy, and operational efficiency respectively [1][2][3]. 2. **Regulatory Impact**: The introduction of IFRS 17 and IFRS 9 standards has significantly altered how insurance companies recognize revenue and classify financial assets, leading to increased volatility in financial statements [12][13][16]. 3. **Valuation Metrics**: The core valuation framework for life insurance companies is embedded value (EV), which combines current net assets with the value of in-force policies. New business value (NBV) is calculated based on new premium income and is influenced by product type, sales channels, and coverage duration [18][19]. 4. **Interest Rates**: The 10-year government bond yield is a critical factor affecting insurance company valuations, with a significant positive correlation to price-to-embedded value (PEV) ratios. A decline in bond yields can hinder the ability of insurance companies to meet actuarial assumptions, negatively impacting EV valuations [21][22][23]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: The insurance industry has shifted from a supply-driven to a demand-driven model, necessitating a focus on changes in overall demand and the quality of high-level agents [24][26]. Additional Important Content 1. **Cash Flow Management**: Insurance companies face cash flow mismatches due to the differing timelines of premium income and future payouts, which can lead to recognition issues in profit reporting [10][11]. 2. **Expense Management**: The ability to manage operational costs effectively is crucial for maintaining expense differences, with higher operational efficiency leading to better profitability [27]. 3. **Recent Regulatory Changes**: Recent regulatory adjustments have lowered pricing interest rates from 2.5% to 1.99%, reducing the attractiveness of new policies and increasing the difficulty of growing liabilities [28]. 4. **Investment Opportunities**: Current market focus is on investment returns rather than liability growth, with a particular interest in the narrowing of trading interest spread risks and potential recovery in 10-year government bond yields [29]. This summary encapsulates the essential insights and developments discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the insurance industry's current landscape and future outlook.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution and significance of the bancassurance channel in China's insurance market, highlighting its past dominance and current trends in premium contributions, particularly focusing on the growth of regular premium products in recent years [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Development and Current Trends - Bancassurance products have been primarily single premium since their inception in 1996, with new premium income surpassing all other channels by 2007 [1]. - From 2013 to 2016, bancassurance premiums accounted for half of the total life insurance premiums, but this has decreased to around 30% in recent years [1]. - In the last three years, regular premium income from bancassurance has increasingly matched that of individual insurance channels, indicating its growing importance [1]. Group 2: Product Analysis and Risks - The article analyzes the "incremental whole life insurance" product, particularly its return risks before and after the "reporting and banking integration" policy [2]. - After the integration, the new business value (NBV) of bancassurance products significantly increased, even in a declining interest rate environment [2]. - Various scenarios are presented to illustrate the NBV under different investment yield assumptions, emphasizing the impact of pricing and cost structures on product viability [4][6]. Group 3: Product Comparisons and Financial Metrics - Four hypothetical incremental whole life insurance products are constructed with varying cost rates, showcasing their financial metrics such as NBV and cash value at different time frames [4][6]. - Product D exhibits a notable risk of policy lapses after seven years, with potential accounting losses if a high percentage of customers choose to surrender their policies [6][7]. - The article highlights that aggressive companies may offer products with low additional cost rates, which can lead to significant financial risks if investment yields do not meet expectations [6][7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Economic Context - The article predicts that in a low-interest-rate environment, incremental whole life insurance products will attract middle to high-end customers due to their potential for long-term returns that exceed future inflation rates [10]. - It is anticipated that the inflation rate in China will remain below 2% over the next 20 years, with a potential drop to around 1% as the economy matures, making these insurance products appealing for retirement and wealth transfer [10]. - The article also discusses the expected decline in NBV as interest rates continue to fall, with projections indicating a decrease in the NBV rate for products priced at lower interest rates [14][22].

中国的银行保险从1 9 9 6年开始起步。银保产品一直以趸交为主，到2 0 0 7年银保渠道的 新单保费已经超过了所有其他渠道新单保费之和。从2013年到2016年，银保总保费占 寿险行业总规模保费的一半，近几年降到30%左右。最近三年，银保期交保费也逐步赶 上了个险渠道，越发显示出其重要性。 在第一部分，首先回顾了银保业务发展的六个阶段，从2024年开始，进入"报行合一"的 全新阶段。我们汇总了全行业银保新单保费和期交保费数据，另外我们将寿险公司分为 六组，也汇总了每组的保费数据。 在第二部分，我们展示了7 6家寿险公司过去十五年的新单保费和40家大中型公司的行业 排名。我们用亿元做单位，数字0表示保费小于0.5亿元。 这篇文章《银保渠道的过去和未来》是我最近写的研究报告，主要内容分为三个部分在 这里连载。2 0 2 2年初在研究银保渠道时，我选了15家以银保为主并且规模较大的公司， 分为两组，分别称为银保七雄和八大金刚，并且将所有做银保的寿险公司分为六大类， 这种分类对分析银保保费的变化和趋势有很大帮助。 二、2005到2012年 正常增长的时代 根据不完全统计，2005年银保渠道的总保费为9 5 2亿， ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's value rate in life and health insurance business significantly improved in Q1, driving NBV growth of 34.9% year-on-year, with strong performance from bancassurance and community financial service channels [1][9] - The quality of the property insurance business improved significantly, with the combined cost ratio decreasing by 3.0 percentage points to 96.6%, leading to substantial growth in underwriting profit [1][5] - On the asset side, the company increased its allocation to high-dividend stocks, and the performance of OCI stocks in Q1 was impressive, contributing to an improvement in overall investment return rates year-on-year [1][6] Financial Performance - The company reported a 2.4% year-on-year increase in operating profit to 37.91 billion yuan in Q1, with life and health insurance business operating profit up 5.0% to 26.86 billion yuan [2][3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 26.4% year-on-year to 27.02 billion yuan, primarily due to a fair value loss of 21.8 billion yuan in Q1, compared to a fair value gain of 34.49 billion yuan in the same period last year [3] Life and Health Insurance - The NBV for life and health insurance increased by 34.9% year-on-year to 12.89 billion yuan, driven by an improvement in the NBVM by 10.4 percentage points to 32.0% [3][4] - The first-year premium used to calculate NBV decreased by 19.5% year-on-year to 45.59 billion yuan [3] Multi-Channel Development - The company has effectively built a multi-channel professional sales capability, with significant results from various channels [4] - The agent channel saw a 14.0% year-on-year increase in per capita NBV, despite a high base from the previous year [4] - The bancassurance channel experienced a remarkable 170.8% year-on-year increase in NBV [4] Property Insurance - The underwriting profit for the property insurance business increased by 755.5% year-on-year to 2.76 billion yuan, driven by a 3.0 percentage point decrease in the combined cost ratio to 96.6% [5] - Insurance service revenue for the property insurance business increased by 0.7% year-on-year to 81.15 billion yuan, with original insurance premium income rising by 7.7% to 85.14 billion yuan [5] Asset Management - The overall investment return rate improved year-on-year, primarily driven by OCI stocks [6][7] - The company's investment portfolio reached over 5.92 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.3% from the beginning of the year [7] - The allocation to high-dividend stocks was increased, with the scale of other equity instruments growing rapidly [7] Other Business Segments - The banking business reported a 5.6% year-on-year decrease in net profit to 8.17 billion yuan, mainly due to a 13.1% decline in operating income [8] - The asset management business saw a 19.2% year-on-year increase in net profit to 1.09 billion yuan [8] - The financial empowerment business reported a net loss of 2.87 billion yuan, with a significant impact from one-time gains and losses related to the consolidation of Ping An Health [8] Investment Recommendation - The company is viewed positively for its long-term investment value, with a current valuation at a low level and sufficient margin of safety [9] - The estimated growth rates for NBV in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 23.0%, 14.1%, and 13.9%, respectively [9]