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美国诺贝尔奖获得者表示:关税战,美国一定会输
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-03 17:54
Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade war between the U.S. and China is revealing significant structural differences in their economies, with China appearing more prepared and strategic in its responses compared to the U.S. [3][9] Group 1: Market Reactions - Chicago agricultural futures experienced a sharp decline as China sought new partnerships in South America for agricultural products, indicating a swift shift in market dynamics [1] - U.S. agricultural exports to China have seen a continuous decline over two quarters, contrasting with the stability of Chinese exports to the U.S. [5] Group 2: Economic Structure and Strategy - A Nobel laureate has stated that the U.S. is likely to lose the trade war due to the substitutability of U.S. agricultural products compared to the irreplaceable manufacturing goods exported from China [3] - China's responses to U.S. tariffs have been precise and calculated, while U.S. actions appear reactive and disorganized, highlighting a difference in strategic planning [3][9] Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The rebuilding of supply chains is complex and cannot be achieved quickly, as it relies on decades of global collaboration [5] - China's investments in sectors like semiconductors and renewable energy have been consistent, indicating a long-term strategy for supply chain independence [3][5] Group 4: Political and Economic Implications - U.S. internal dissent is growing, particularly among farmers and manufacturing workers who feel let down by unfulfilled promises [7] - The trade war reflects a broader systemic clash between China's coordinated approach and the U.S.'s market-driven model, with implications for long-term resilience [9][12]