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加热不燃烧烟草制品(HNB)
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华安证券:HNB美国市场有望得到快速发展 英美烟草重视Glo Hilo推广
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 09:19
Core Viewpoint - China is the largest traditional tobacco market globally, while the US leads in the new tobacco market, with Japan and South Korea also holding significant shares in the new tobacco sector [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional tobacco market is gradually shrinking, while the new tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth. In 2020, the market size of heated not-burn (HNB) products surpassed that of electronic cigarettes, establishing itself as the new leader in the new tobacco sector [2] - The US market currently leads in vaporized electronic cigarettes but has a significant gap in the HNB market. The resolution between PMI and BAT is expected to accelerate the development of the HNB market [3] - The regulatory environment in Europe is tightening for vaporized products while remaining stable for HNB, which may allow HNB to gradually capture a larger market share [3] Group 2: Product Landscape - The transition from traditional cigarettes to new tobacco products is driven by a dual focus on flavor and health, with new tobacco products offering significant harm reduction advantages and more diverse taste options [2] - Major multinational tobacco companies are actively investing in new tobacco products, which is likely to increase the penetration rate of these products in the market [2] Group 3: Compliance and Regulation - The structure of tobacco products and their acceptance in different countries is largely determined by national policies and regulations. Taxation influences the differing policy attitudes towards traditional and new tobacco products, while health concerns shape the regulatory stance on various new tobacco products [4] - Strict regulations and weak enforcement may lead to unintended consequences, such as the growth of the illegal electronic cigarette market [4] Group 4: Brand Landscape - The traditional tobacco market is highly concentrated, dominated by brands like Marlboro, Winston, and Camel. In the new tobacco sector, PMI and BAT hold leading market shares, but changes in policy and company strategies may alter the brand landscape [5] Group 5: Industry Chain - The tobacco supply chain includes essential materials for both cigarette and electronic cigarette production, such as cigarette labels, rolling paper, and electronic cigarette components like lithium batteries and control chips. Key listed companies in this supply chain include Jinjia Co., Dongfeng Co., and others [8]