2025年上半年，在日本的传统大型企业中，通过集团内企业重组来提高资本效率的行动接连 不断。丰田等决定以约4.7万亿日元的价格对旗下丰田自动织机进行TOB（公开要约收购）， NTT则以2万亿日元的规模将上市子公司NTT DATA集团收为完全子公司。 上市企业不断增加的日本市场的新陈代谢出现停滞。大公司控制上市子公司，或为了维持业 务往来而在集团内互持股份。积极投资者加强施压，要求企业改变母子公司都上市的情况和 解除互相持股，以有效利用经营资源。 参与NTT DATA项目的大和证券的社长荻野明彦指出，"欧美的上市公司数量比峰值减少4成 左右。在日本，着眼于企业估值的提高，MBO（管理层参加的收购）等或将增加"。 日本企业成为买方的并购在1~6月达到历史最高。金额达到2148亿美元，增至上年同期的3.6倍。旨在提 高资本效率的集团内重组和赴海外追求增长的动向正在加强…… 日本企业成为买方的并购在2025年1~6月达到历史最高。金额达到2148亿美元，增至上年同 期的3.6倍，按半年数据来看，创出有可比数据的1980年以来的新高。在全球所占份额自日 本泡沫经济期起的34年半以来再次超过1成。旨在提高资本效率的集团内 ...

新消费行业目前处于高景气、高成长阶段，尽管前段时间经历了一些股价调整， 但我们仍然坚定看好当前时点的机会。特别是信息烟草、潮玩和个护这三个方 向，调整实际上提供了较好的入场机会。烟草和潮玩的竞争格局较好，龙头公 司的业绩增速也非常优秀，是可以持续看好的方向。 传统轻工行业的投资逻辑是什么？ 传统轻工行业可以分为三个方向：稳健增长及高分红、成长性以及周期性。稳 健增长及高分红方面，包括包装和家居板块，今年有可能逐步进入稳增长、高 分红的投资逻辑。典型标的如裕同科技和永新股份，它们在包装领域能够实现 中高个位数甚至双位数增长，同时具有非常高的分红率且估值较低。此外，家 居板块逐步起稳，从二季度开始可能看到利润同比正增长趋势，这使得该板块 具有高分红、高股息特征。 成长性方面，出口链上的优秀公司表现良好，如匠 家具板块逐步走向高分红投资逻辑，二季度利润企稳，高股息、低估值 和稳增长是主要特征，可能吸引险资等红利资金配置。关注业绩企稳后 的估值修复机会。 出口板块自下而上选股，匠心家居等公司在美国市场仍有增长空间，长 期看具备全球市场潜力。关注嘉益、永益等其他出口型企业的发展。 摘要 传统轻工行业投资逻辑多元，可分为 ...

今 年 ， 港 股 融 资 市 场 极 为 火 热 。 Wind 数 据 显 示 ， 今 年 以 来 ， 港 股 市 场 股 权 融 资 规 模 已 逼 近 3000 亿 港 元 ， 达 到 2879.82 亿 港 元 ， 同 比 大 增 350.56%。 总体来看，今年港股市场无论是IPO还是再融资规模都呈爆发式增长，尤其是IPO表现更为抢眼。港股上半年共完成42宗IPO，合计集资额超过1070亿港元，较去年 全年多约22%，暂列全球第一。 融资规模持续创新高 在2023年和2024年，港股市场无论是IPO还是再融资都较为疲软，IPO方面这两年分别融资463.34亿港元和881.47亿港元，均不超过千亿港元；再融资方面，主要 以配售为主，这两年分别融资661.61亿港元和545.99亿港元，同样不超过千亿港元。 但自2024年下半年以来，港股市场在多项重磅政策带动下再次活跃，而在2025年上半年，整个市场更是不断复苏。 Wind数据显示，2025年以来，港股市场股权融资规模已达到2879.82亿港元，远高于2023年和2024年全年的1424.39亿港元和1756.60亿港元，甚至也已经高于 2022年全年 ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market has seen a significant surge in equity financing this year, with total financing reaching 2879.82 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 350.56% [1][2] - The IPO market has been particularly strong, with 42 IPOs completed in the first half of the year, raising over 1070 billion HKD, which is approximately 22% more than the total for the previous year, making it the largest globally [1][2] Financing Scale - In 2023 and 2024, the Hong Kong market experienced relatively weak financing, with IPOs raising 463.34 billion HKD and 881.47 billion HKD respectively, both under 1 billion HKD [2] - Since the second half of 2024, the market has become active again due to several key policies, with 2025 seeing a total equity financing of 2879.82 billion HKD, surpassing the total for 2023 and 2024 combined [2] - The rapid growth in financing is attributed to a significant increase in placement issuance, which has reached 1569.85 billion HKD in 2025, exceeding the combined total of 1206 billion HKD from 2023 and 2024 [2] Leading Companies Driving Growth - Major companies have played a crucial role in boosting the equity financing scale, with three companies in the top 10 IPO projects raising over 100 billion HKD each, including Ningde Times at 410 billion HKD [3] - The top 10 fundraising projects include seven A-share companies, indicating strong participation from A+H companies in the IPO market [3] - In the top 10 refinancing projects, BYD and Xiaomi have raised over 400 billion HKD each, accounting for more than 50% of the total refinancing amount in 2025 [3][4] Industry Trends - A notable trend in the Hong Kong financing landscape is the urgent need for capital in thriving industries, particularly in technology hardware, capital goods, and automotive sectors [5] - The financing activities are heavily driven by emerging sectors such as new energy, artificial intelligence, and biomedicine, reflecting a dual focus on technology and consumer markets [5][6] - These industries are facing intense competition and pressures to expand internationally, prompting a strategic move to accumulate more capital through the market [6]

每周一景： 云南兰坪澜沧江山谷河流村庄风光 点击右上角菜单，收听朗读版 【轻工】 菲莫国际海外IQOS爆款大单品复盘 投资建议： 复盘IQOS成功路径，核心逻辑在于品牌以产品力为基，营销与渠道合力营造"体验生活方式"的品牌价值主张，确立用户心智护城河。当前全球HNB产 业进入新一轮的产品生命周期，随各大品牌积极下场进行市场培育，产业规模亦有望加速扩张。推荐具备产品技术及供应链竞争力的相关标的。 日本市场：高渗透率，竞争饱和。 日本政府自八十年代末以来通过上调卷烟价格及烟草税率，以加强控烟、稳定卷烟利润水平、增加烟草税收。另一方面，监管对 HNB产品相对友好，纳入烟草体系监管，综合税率更低，同时不受2019年发布的"最强禁烟令"影响。而雾化产品计入药物监管，不批准销售。得益税收优势，HNB 产品定价灵活性更强，IQOS烟弹定价对标中端卷烟，一方面体现更低的消费税率，另一面为未来税收潜在调整以及重新定价提供空间。随卷烟市场规模收缩，HNB 市场快速扩张，2024年日本地区HNB产品渗透率已超过40%，同时在东京等多个核心城市的渗透率超过50%。 战略复盘：多位一体，确定明显领先优势。 1）产品：多技术平台布局，最 ...

帝国品牌(IMBBY.US)同样获得"买入"评级。报告指出，自2020年管理改革以来，其可燃烟草业务在关 键市场份额稳步提升，无烟产品战略开始显现成效，特别是在美国现代口腔产品领域取得突破。尽管公 司资产负债表稳健且现金回报丰厚，当前股价仍处于烟草行业估值洼地。 日本烟草(JAPAY.US)获"持有"评级。Jefferies认为，该公司对新兴市场的战略布局颇具吸引力，全球销 量份额增长印证其核心可燃烟草业务健康状况。旗下全球旗舰品牌在关键发达市场(DM)持续扩大份 额，近期收购的美国折扣品牌市场表现亦优于行业整体水平。 值得关注的是，英美烟草(BTI.US)被明确列为Jefferies烟草行业首选标的。从量化分析维度看，菲利普 莫里斯国际同时斩获Seeking Alpha平台最高量化评分，进一步印证其市场认可度。 智通财经APP获悉，Jefferies周三发布烟草行业研究报告，首次覆盖多家行业龙头并给出评级，其中包 含三个"买入"评级、一个"持有"评级及一个"跑输大盘"评级。由分析师安德烈·安东-伊奥尼塔领衔的团 队指出，烟草行业凭借稳定的增长潜力、防御性资产属性、强劲的现金回报能力及当前仍具吸引力的估 值水 ...

7月9日，华富基金旗下华富中证A500指数基金开启发售。该基金为被动指数型股票基金，拟任基金经 理张娅、李孝华。 华富中证人工智能产业ETF为张娅、李孝华目前共同管理的规模较大的产品。截至7月8日数据（下 同），该基金今年以来净值上涨6.96%，小幅跑赢业绩比较基准。 年费率0.5% 7月4日，华富基金旗下华富中证A500指数基金发布发售公告。该基金运作方式为契约型开放式，于 2025年7月9日至2025年9月30日公开发售，基金最低募集份额总额为2亿份。 基金投资标的为中证A500指数及其未来可能发生的变更。中证A500指数从各行业选取市值较大、流动 性较好的500只证券作为指数样本，以反映各行业最具代表性上市公司证券的整体表现。基金力争将日 均跟踪偏离度的绝对值控制在0.35%以内，年化跟踪误差控制在4%以内。 拟任基金经理张娅、李孝华 基金拟任基金经理为张娅、李孝华。 公开资料显示，张娅于2017年4月加入华富基金管理有限公司，曾先后任职于华泰柏瑞基金管理有限公 司指数投资部总监兼基金经理、上海同安投资管理有限公司副总经理兼宏观量化中心总经理。 李孝华于2019年10月加入公司，曾先后任职于金瑞期货研究 ...

盘前市场动向 1. 7月9日(周三)美股盘前，美股三大股指期货齐涨。截至发稿，道指期货涨0.29%，标普500指数期货涨 0.22%，纳指期货涨0.20%。 2. 截至发稿，德国DAX指数涨1.18%，英国富时100指数涨0.24%，法国CAC40指数涨1.24%，欧洲斯托 克50指数涨1.09%。 3. 截至发稿，WTI原油涨0.20%，报68.47美元/桶。布伦特原油涨0.16%，报70.26美元/桶。 市场消息 美银：企业韧性是底气，标普500目标看高至6600点。在美国企业界展现惊人韧性的背景下，美国银行 策略师团队大幅上调了对美股的前景预测。该行指出，尽管面临特朗普混乱贸易政策的冲击，美国企业 仍能维持盈利指引水平。包括Savita Subramanian和Jill Carey Hall在内的策略师团队将标普500指数年终 目标位从5600点上调至6300点，并设定6600点的12个月目标价。他们补充道，虽然美国经济表现平平， 但美国企业却独树一帜，企业盈利预测保持稳定，这为股票投资者提供了重要参考依据。策略师在一份 报告中写道："尽管暂定贸易协定、《大而美》法案的出台以及衰退风险消退，但政策不确定 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the food and beverage industry [5] Core Insights - The food and beverage sector in A-shares has underperformed compared to major indices, with a decline of 0.27% over the past two weeks, lagging behind the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.62 percentage points [2][13] - The approval of D-Tagatose by the National Health Commission presents a new opportunity in the sugar substitute market, as it is a natural sweetener with lower calories compared to sucrose [4][62] - The dairy industry is showing signs of stabilization, with efforts to alleviate challenges and improve quality [4][62] Summary by Sections Market Review - The A-share food and beverage industry fell by 0.27% from June 23 to July 4, underperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.62 percentage points and the Shenzhen Component Index by 5.30 percentage points [2][13] - Within the sector, baking products (+3.67%), health products (+3.50%), and meat products (+1.54%) saw the highest gains, while soft drinks (-2.21%), beer (-2.10%), and snacks (-1.84%) experienced the largest declines [2][13] Key Data Tracking - As of July 4, the price of Feitian Moutai was 1,955 RMB for original boxes and 1,865 RMB for bulk, showing a decrease of 35 RMB and 65 RMB respectively from two weeks prior [3][29] - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.04 RMB/kg, down 7.0% year-on-year [40][43] Key Events Tracking - The approval of D-Tagatose as a new food ingredient opens up opportunities in the sugar substitute market, with its sweetness being about 70% that of sucrose but with only 10% of the calories [4][62] - The Ministry of Agriculture emphasized the need to support the dairy industry, indicating a positive trend towards recovery [4][62] Investment Recommendations - In the white liquor segment, it is advised to focus on high-end brands with strong market positions such as Kweichow Moutai and Wuliangye, as well as regional leaders with favorable competitive dynamics [9][64] - For consumer goods, there is a growing interest in yellow wine, and beer consumption is entering its peak season, with high demand in snack foods and energy drinks [9][64]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing a new high for the year, driven by strong performance in the consumption sector, particularly the Consumption ETF (159928) which has seen significant inflows and positive stock performance among its constituent companies [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is close to reaching 3500 points, marking a new high for the year [1]. - The Consumption ETF (159928) recorded a 0.5% increase with a total trading volume of 239 million yuan, and it has seen a net subscription of 82 million units over two consecutive days, bringing its total size to over 11.9 billion yuan [1][3]. Group 2: Company Performance - Yanjing Beer reported a strong first-half earnings forecast, projecting a net profit of 1.062 to 1.137 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 40% to 50% [3]. - In the second quarter of 2025, Yanjing Beer expects a net profit of 896 million to 972 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 37% to 48% [3]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - The "618" shopping festival demonstrated significant growth in domestic consumption, with platforms like JD and Tmall leading in various categories, indicating a robust recovery in consumer spending [4]. - The promotion of "old-for-new" policies in the home appliance and 3C sectors has driven increased foot traffic in stores, with a year-on-year increase of 105% [4]. Group 4: Industry Insights - The new consumption trend is expected to continue despite short-term adjustments, with a focus on low-valuation stocks that have potential catalysts [7]. - The food and beverage sector is highlighted as a key area for investment, with ongoing structural adjustments providing opportunities for growth [8].