（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，9月22日，新型烟草概念震荡走高，国光电器、盈趣科技涨停，聚辰股份、博硕科技、弘 信电子、格林精密等涨幅居前。 ...

新型烟草概念震荡走高，国光电器、盈趣科技涨停，聚辰股份、博硕科技、弘信电子、格林精密等涨幅 居前。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is actively preparing for the launch of its first experimental satellite, expected by the end of 2025, although the exact date may vary due to external factors such as approvals and launch site scheduling [1] Company Overview - Shunhao Co., Ltd. is a high-tech enterprise engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of environmentally friendly packaging materials [1] - The company operates in four main business areas: research, production, and sales of specialty eco-friendly paper; research, production, and sales of printed products; deep processing of industrial hemp and application scenario development; and research, production, and sales of new tobacco products [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company is leveraging its R&D advantages to launch HNB products, aiming to capitalize on new industry trends and recover from previous regulatory challenges [1] Company Overview - Smoore International possesses strong R&D capabilities, particularly in ceramic core technology, and has established deep partnerships with major global tobacco companies [1] - The company is transitioning its business model from a device supplier to a tobacco business, opening new growth avenues with the launch of HNB products in collaboration with British American Tobacco [1][2] Industry Insights - The HNB segment is expected to accelerate its development, with a low penetration rate of approximately 6% in 2024, indicating significant growth potential [2] - The global traditional tobacco sales are declining, making new tobacco products a viable solution for market recovery, with 2025 anticipated as a pivotal year for major international tobacco companies [2] Market Dynamics - The HNB market is currently in a phase where supply is creating demand, with potential for increased penetration in large markets like the U.S. and China [2] - If HNB penetration in the U.S. reaches 15%, it could correspond to an incremental market size of $19.9 billion and a sales volume of 49.7 billion sticks [2] Product Development - The collaboration between Smoore and British American Tobacco on the Glo Hilo product combines their strengths, with Glo Hilo expected to compete effectively against Philip Morris's IQOS [2] - The latest Glo Hilo product features a quick preheating time of 3-5 seconds and high flavor fidelity, significantly enhancing consumer experience [2] Financial Projections - Revenue sharing for Glo Hilo is projected to be in the single to double-digit percentage range, with expected earnings per stick ranging from 0.04 to 0.11 RMB [2] - If HNB penetration increases to 12% and Glo Hilo market share reaches 25%, Smoore's annual profits from HNB could reach 6 to 7 billion RMB [2] Traditional Business Outlook - The U.S. vaping market is expected to grow from $19.81 billion in 2021 to $27.03 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 11% [3] - Positive changes in the industry include FDA approvals for new flavors and increased enforcement against illegal products, which may benefit Smoore's vaping business [3] Long-term Strategy - The company is diversifying into medical and beauty vaping, along with special-purpose vaping, to build a sustainable future [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - Smoore International is the largest electronic vaporizer supplier globally, with growth potential unlocked by its technology positioning in HNB (Heated Not Burn) products [3][6] - The company's core business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory shifts in the industry and increasing market share among major clients [3][6] - The HNB business is expected to see significant growth, with a projected annual growth rate in the double digits and a current global penetration rate of less than 6% [3][7] Summary by Sections Introduction - Smoore International leverages its R&D advantages to launch HNB products, marking a new phase in the industry [6][17] - The company has transitioned from a pure equipment supplier to a tobacco business model, opening new growth avenues [6][17] Core Business - The HNB segment is poised for accelerated development, with a low penetration rate and high barriers to entry, indicating substantial growth potential [7][28] - The collaboration with British American Tobacco to launch Glo Hilo combines both companies' strengths, enhancing market competitiveness [7][28] Performance Outlook - The revenue-sharing model for Glo Hilo is expected to yield significant profits, with projections estimating annual profits for Smoore's HNB business to reach 6-7 billion RMB if market penetration increases [8][9] - The U.S. market presents a significant opportunity, with potential market size increases if HNB penetration rises to 15% [8][37] Traditional Business - The U.S. vaping market is expected to grow from $19.81 billion in 2021 to $27.03 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 11% [9][20] - Regulatory changes in the U.S. are becoming more favorable, allowing for a recovery in the vaporizer business [9][20] Long-term Strategic Direction - The company is diversifying into medical and beauty vaporization, aiming for long-term growth across multiple sectors [10][19]

Core Insights - The global oral tobacco market is projected to reach $11.232 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 57.57%, and is expected to grow to $25.148 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.32% from 2024 to 2028 [1][2] - The North American and European markets are experiencing high growth rates, while the Asian and African markets are in early stages, indicating significant potential for rapid development in emerging markets [1][2] - The FDA's approval of flavored oral tobacco products is anticipated to act as a catalyst for market growth, potentially increasing the overall market ceiling [1][4] Market Overview - The retail market for oral tobacco is highly concentrated, with Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group holding market shares of 41.1%, 24.6%, and 13.8% respectively, totaling 79.5% of the market [2] - In 2024, the North American oral tobacco market is expected to reach $8.775 billion, growing by 58.30% year-on-year, while the European market is projected to reach $2.415 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 56.12% [1][2] Company Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN nicotine pouch sales are projected to be 644 million boxes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.93%, with U.S. sales accounting for 581 million boxes, up 51.49% [2] - British American Tobacco's oral tobacco sales, including brands like Velo and Grizzly, are expected to reach 8.3 billion pouches in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 55%, with U.S. sales surging by 234% [2] Regulatory Developments - The FDA has authorized the sale of 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, which are deemed to have lower harmful components compared to traditional cigarettes and most smokeless tobacco products, aligning with public health standards [4] - The approval of flavored products is expected to enhance market growth and expand the market's potential [4] Industry Opportunities - Jin Cheng Pharmaceutical is increasing its production capacity to 200 tons per year, focusing on high-purity nicotine for new tobacco products, which positions the company to benefit from the expanding oral tobacco market [5][6] - The company has received various certifications, including FDA PMTA approval, which enhances its competitive edge in the market [6] Investment Recommendations - Companies to watch in the oral tobacco supply chain include Jin Cheng Pharmaceutical (300233.SZ) and Run Du Co., Ltd. (002923.SZ) [7]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The global oral tobacco market is experiencing rapid growth, with a projected market size of USD 11.232 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 57.57%, and expected to reach USD 25.148 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.32% from 2024 to 2028 [1] - The North American market is expected to reach USD 8.775 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 58.30%, and projected to grow to USD 19.449 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 22.01% [1] - The European market is projected to reach USD 2.415 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 56.12%, and expected to grow to USD 5.608 billion by 2028, with a CAGR of 23.45% [1] - The top three companies in the oral tobacco retail market in 2024 are Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, and Altria Group, holding market shares of 41.1%, 24.6%, and 13.8% respectively, totaling 79.5% of the market [1] Summary by Sections Market Growth - The oral tobacco market is expected to see significant growth in both established and emerging markets, with North America and Europe leading in growth rates [1] - Emerging markets in Asia and Africa are in the early stages but are anticipated to realize their market potential rapidly as the oral tobacco market develops [1] Company Performance - Philip Morris International's ZYN nicotine pouch sales are projected to reach 644 million boxes in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.93%, with U.S. sales at 581 million boxes, up 51.49% [2] - British American Tobacco's oral tobacco sales are expected to reach 8.3 billion pouches in 2024, with U.S. sales significantly increasing by 234% [2] Regulatory Developments - The FDA has authorized the sale of 20 ZYN nicotine pouch products, which are expected to catalyze market growth due to their lower harmful component levels compared to traditional tobacco products [3] - The approval of flavored products by the FDA is anticipated to further enhance market growth and expand the overall market potential [3] Industry Supply Chain - Jincheng Pharmaceutical is positioned as a key supplier in the nicotine market, with an increase in production capacity to 200 tons per year, which is expected to positively impact sales and market positioning [4] - The report suggests focusing on companies within the oral tobacco supply chain, including Jincheng Pharmaceutical and others in the vaping and tobacco supply sectors [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively monitoring the new tobacco sector and is adapting to market and regulatory changes to enhance its product offerings and services [1] Group 1 - The company is focusing on the new tobacco field and is tracking overseas product forms based on market and policy regulations [1] - The company aims to leverage its industrial advantages to provide more high-quality products and services to customers [1] - The company is looking to further expand its market space for products [1]

Core Viewpoint - 中烟香港's stock price dropped over 7% following the release of its interim results, despite reporting an increase in revenue and profit [1] Financial Performance - 中烟香港 reported a revenue of 10.316 billion HKD, an increase of 18.52% year-on-year [1] - The profit attributable to shareholders was 706 million HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.79% [1] - The company proposed an interim dividend of 0.19 HKD per share [1] Business Segments - The increase in revenue was driven by a significant rise in the unit price of tobacco leaf imports and cigarette exports, although new tobacco export volumes and revenues declined due to regulatory changes and supply chain disruptions in key overseas markets [1] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first half were 9.17% and 7.00%, respectively, showing a decline of 1.91 and 0.81 percentage points year-on-year [1] Cost Structure - The decline in overall gross margin was primarily due to changes in the business structure, with the revenue share of the lower-margin tobacco leaf import business increasing by 3.26 percentage points to 81.41% [1] - The cost of tobacco leaves procured from CBT increased at a rate greater than the rise in unit prices, leading to a decrease in the gross margin for tobacco leaf imports [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expanding its self-operated channels in cigarette exports and continuously introducing new products to enhance average transaction value, which has contributed to a faster increase in gross margin [1] - There remains a strong certainty regarding the improvement of profitability in the company's core business, with expectations for further external growth opportunities [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055) experienced a decline of over 7% post-earnings announcement, with a current drop of 6.11% to HKD 35.62, and a trading volume of HKD 208 million [1] Financial Performance - The company reported a mid-year revenue of HKD 10.316 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.52% [1] - Shareholder profit attributable to the company was HKD 706 million, up 9.79% year-on-year [1] - A mid-term dividend of HKD 0.19 per share is proposed [1] Business Segments - The increase in revenue is attributed to a significant rise in the unit price of tobacco leaf imports and cigarette exports, although the new tobacco export business faced a notable decline in volume and revenue due to regulatory changes and supply chain disruptions in key overseas markets [1] - The gross profit margin and net profit margin for the first half of the year were 9.17% and 7.00%, respectively, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.91 and 0.81 percentage points [1] Cost Structure - The decline in overall gross profit margin is primarily due to changes in business structure, with the revenue share of the lower-margin tobacco leaf import business increasing by 3.26 percentage points to 81.41% [1] - The cost of tobacco leaves procured from CBT has risen more than the increase in unit prices, leading to a decrease in the gross profit margin for tobacco leaf imports [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company continues to expand self-operated channels in cigarette exports and is introducing new products to enhance average transaction value, resulting in a faster increase in gross profit margin [1] - There remains a strong certainty regarding the improvement of the profitability of the company's internal business operations, with expectations for significant external growth opportunities [1]