（编辑 姚尧） 证券日报网1月7日讯 ，顺灏股份在接受调研者提问时表示，公司坚持"环保低碳新材料+生物大健康"双 翼发展的战略布局，围绕特种环保纸的研发、生产及销售，印刷品的研发、生产及销售，工业大麻精深 加工及应用场景研发，新型烟草的研发、生产与销售等四大业务展开。2025年6月公司通过对外投资参 股了北京轨道辰光科技有限公司（以下简称"轨道辰光"），该公司核心业务包括"天数天算"和"地数天 算"。公司是国内较早从事特种防伪环保纸研发、生产和销售的企业，特种防伪环保纸业务是公司上市 时的主营业务，主要包含真空镀铝纸、激光防伪等环保纸质材料，主要应用于特定客户终端消费品、社 会消费品等行业。印刷品业务主要生产及销售模式主要在下游企业广泛实施的招投标项目中，通过参与 招投标获取订单，并按照客户的订单要求组织生产和销售。公司印刷产品与终端客户的黏性较高，可按 照客户要求提供个性化定制服务，较其他印刷包装产品具有高稳定性、大批量、多批次、高精度、高防 伪和环保性强等特点。上述两块业务近年来营收和利润水平较稳定。公司2011年上市后，积极寻找第二 成长曲线，先后布局了新型烟草业务和工业大麻业务。工业大麻业务，在国内， ...

编号：2026-001 | 投资者关系活动类别 | □特定对象调研 □分析师会议 □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | --- | --- | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | ☑ | 其他 国金证券商业航天专题会议 | | | 国金证券孙恺祈；博时基金蔡宗延、万冠宇；万家基金张希晨、冯 | | 参与单位名称与姓名 | 哲、崔逸凡；南方基金万朝辉；申万菱信卜忠林、付娟、张贇；新 | | | 华基金李业彬；北京磐泽资管庄启臣；大成基金孔祥；蜂巢基金徐 | | | 嶒；上海南土资管李辻；上海胤胜资管谭佩佩；翀云投资俞海海； | | | 博道基金郭晓萱；上海森锦资管季亮；上海趣时资管沈成宇；光大 | | | 保德信基金王艺伟；中银资管林博程、张丽新；银叶资管寇晨飞； | | | 陆家嘴国泰人寿保险何蓉；鑫元基金张汉毅；湘财基金张海波；兴 | | | 业基金蒲延杰；上海混沌投资王菁；上海胤胜资管李美泽；大成基 | | | 金吴天齐；招商基金陈西中；湖南长心私募基金徐行余；金鹰基金 | | | 金达莱；友邦人寿保险赵一路、丁戈；国寿安保基金肖佳琪；上海 | | | 浦泓资管彭聪；中银资管陆莎 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jincheng Pharmaceutical (300233.SZ) is facing multiple challenges, including tax payment issues, stock manipulation by its actual controller Zhao Yeqing, and declining financial performance, raising concerns about the company's future stability and management effectiveness [2][9]. Group 1: Tax Issues - Jincheng Jinsu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. and its subsidiary Guangdong Landu Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. were required to pay a total of 21.5968 million yuan in back taxes and penalties due to tax issues from 2017 to 2018 [3]. - The tax payments have been completed as of the announcement date, and a supplementary agreement was signed to revise tax liability clauses related to the tax recovery [5]. Group 2: Stock Manipulation - Zhao Yeqing, the actual controller of Jincheng Pharmaceutical, was involved in stock manipulation from August 2017 to February 2020, using 104 accounts to trade the company's stock, which led to a fine and a four-year market ban [7][8]. - The manipulation involved significant trading activity, with 1.19 billion shares bought and 1.07 billion shares sold, resulting in a loss of 7.392 million yuan for the involved accounts [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - Jincheng Pharmaceutical's financial performance has been declining, with a revenue of 35.38 billion yuan in 2023, a growth rate of only 0.93%, and a net profit decrease of 36.09% to 1.75 billion yuan [9]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 19.32 billion yuan, down 23.19%, and a net profit of 31.5771 million yuan, down 79.1% [9]. - The company experienced a significant decline in its gross margin to 36.23%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points, and a net margin of 1.74%, down 4.71 percentage points compared to the previous year [9].

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the domestic HNB (Heated Not Burned) industry is on the verge of significant growth, driven by international tobacco giants shifting towards new tobacco products [5]. Core Insights - The global cigarette market is experiencing an irreversible decline, with smoking rates dropping from 30.75% in 2005 to 21.74% in 2022, and cigarette market size decreasing from 53,908 billion sticks in 2018 to an estimated 51,561 billion sticks in 2024, reflecting a CAGR of -0.74% [1][13]. - Major tobacco companies, including Philip Morris International (PMI), are focusing on new tobacco products as a core growth driver, with PMI planning for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030 [1][20]. - The Japanese market serves as a reference point, showing that the rapid penetration of heated tobacco products has not negatively impacted tax revenues, with the market size growing from 37.28 billion sticks in 2019 to 64.50 billion sticks in 2024, a CAGR of 11.59% [2][51]. Summary by Sections Section 1: HNB as a Core Development Category - International tobacco giants are increasingly focusing on new tobacco products as a long-term performance core, with significant contributions to profitability [1.1]. - The global market for heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes is projected to grow, with sales expected to reach $38.85 billion and $23.04 billion respectively by 2024, reflecting growth rates of 12.7% and 9.5% [1.1][13]. Section 2: Domestic Tobacco Industry Challenges - The traditional cigarette market in China is under pressure, with production increasing from 23,642 billion sticks in 2019 to 24,655 billion sticks in 2024, but at a slowing growth rate [3][55]. - The inventory levels in the tobacco industry have risen significantly, from 150 billion yuan in 2010 to approximately 4,394 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a high stock level [3][56]. Section 3: Regulatory Framework for HNB - The regulatory landscape for heated tobacco products is becoming clearer globally, with established frameworks in the US, Japan, and Europe, providing a roadmap for compliance [4][62]. - The US has implemented a structured regulatory process for HNB products, which includes pre-market tobacco application (PMTA) requirements, ensuring a predictable compliance environment [4][66]. Section 4: Domestic Product Development and Market Readiness - Chinese tobacco companies have made significant strides in developing HNB products, with several companies launching domestic HNB devices and achieving a substantial number of patents in the field [4][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product innovation and international expansion for the high-quality development of the domestic tobacco industry [3][5]. Section 5: Company Analysis - Companies like Huabao International and Smoore International are highlighted for their strong technical reserves and potential for growth in the HNB sector, with Huabao expected to benefit from its leading position in the flavoring segment [5][5.1][5.2].

智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，参照海外烟草行业发展经验，新型烟草发展已是大势所趋， 后续若国内HNB开启，有望支撑中烟体系进一步延续高质量发展，建议积极关注目前在加热烟草领域 已有技术&产品储备的供应链企业，后续有望充分享受全球HNB发展大势。 国金证券主要观点如下： 国际烟草巨头全面转向新型烟草，HNB已是头部烟草企业重要增长驱动力 全球范围内卷烟市场萎缩已是不可逆转的趋势，全球吸烟率从2005年的30.75%持续下降至2022年的 21.74%，卷烟市场规模自2018年的53908亿支缓慢下滑至2024年的51561亿支，CAGR为-0.74%。有鉴于 此，包括菲莫国际等在内的国际烟草巨头均将新型烟草作为保障公司长期发展的核心动力，在雾化电子 烟、加热烟草和口含烟等领域加速布局。如菲莫国际计划到2030年营收的三分之二以上将来自新型烟 草，英美烟草计划在2035年新型烟草的收入占比达到50%，各烟草巨头加速从传统烟草巨头向新型烟草 的转型进程。其中HNB是新型烟草的核心品类，2024年菲莫的无烟产品（以HNB产品IQOS为主）营收 占比为39%，加热烟草已成为推动公司业绩增长的核心引擎。 参照日 ...

12 月11 日，公司公告称，为推进股权激励计划，公司于12 月11日购买814 万股股份，每股均价为12.26 港元，总花费为9977 万港元，公司单日大额回购充分展现后续发展信心。 经营分析 Hilo 产品力逐渐得到验证，英美烟草促销力度持续加大。据BAT2025 年业绩预告，日本市场上BAT 积 极推进线上线下营销活动，产品品牌和性能引起消费者的强烈共鸣，来自传统卷烟和加热烟草消费者的 留存率约为50%。高留存率直接验证hilo 优秀的产品力，为后续烟弹起量奠定坚实基础。据BAT 官网， 近期hilo 于波兰市场上大幅提高优惠力度，Hilo 器具加两包烟弹仅售1 兹罗提，Hilo Plus 器具加两包烟 弹仅售79 兹罗提。依托BAT 完备的销售网络和足够的营销资源，后续Hilo 烟弹销售有望持续放量，为 思摩尔贡献核心盈利增量。 机构：国金证券 研究员：张杨桓/赵中平 事件简评 核心雾化业务持续修复，有望持续受益于欧美市场扩容。2024 年以来，美国监管部门持续加大对非法 电子烟的打击力度，非法产品的生存空间受到严重挤压。且FDA 官方表态谨慎支持扩大调味烟范围， 合规市场有望持续扩容。英法等国已全面 ...

国金证券主要观点如下： 事件简评 12月11日，公司公告称，为推进股权激励计划，公司于12月11日购买814万股股份，每股均价为12.26港 元，总花费为9977万港元，公司单日大额回购充分展现后续发展信心。 Hilo产品力逐渐得到验证，英美烟草促销力度持续加大 据BAT2025年业绩预告，日本市场上BAT积极推进线上线下（300959）营销活动，产品品牌和性能引起 消费者的强烈共鸣，来自传统卷烟和加热烟草消费者的留存率约为50%。高留存率直接验证hilo优秀的 产品力，为后续烟弹起量奠定坚实基础。据BAT官网，近期hilo于波兰市场上大幅提高优惠力度，Hilo 器具加两包烟弹仅售1兹罗提，Hilo Plus器具加两包烟弹仅售79兹罗提。依托BAT完备的销售网络和足 够的营销资源，后续Hilo烟弹销售有望持续放量，为思摩尔贡献核心盈利增量。 国金证券发布研报称，思摩尔国际(06969)作为头部烟草巨头核心供应商，且自营的开放式产品持续贡 献业绩增量，有望充分受益于欧美合规雾化市场扩容。海外新型烟草渗透率提升的长期趋势确定，公司 依托自身技术实力、量产能力深度绑定大烟草集团享受产业发展大趋势的优势地位突出。公司 ...

据BAT2025年业绩预告，日本市场上BAT积极推进线上线下营销活动，产品品牌和性能引起消费者的强 烈共鸣，来自传统卷烟和加热烟草消费者的留存率约为50%。高留存率直接验证hilo优秀的产品力，为 后续烟弹起量奠定坚实基础。据BAT官网，近期hilo于波兰市场上大幅提高优惠力度，Hilo器具加两包 烟弹仅售1兹罗提，Hilo Plus器具加两包烟弹仅售79兹罗提。依托BAT完备的销售网络和足够的营销资 源，后续Hilo烟弹销售有望持续放量，为思摩尔贡献核心盈利增量。 核心雾化业务持续修复，有望持续受益于欧美市场扩容 智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，思摩尔国际(06969)作为头部烟草巨头核心供应商，且自营的 开放式产品持续贡献业绩增量，有望充分受益于欧美合规雾化市场扩容。海外新型烟草渗透率提升的长 期趋势确定，公司依托自身技术实力、量产能力深度绑定大烟草集团享受产业发展大趋势的优势地位突 出。公司雾化、HNB业务向上的趋势没有变化，各项业务积极信号正不断涌现，建议积极关注，维 持"买入"评级。 国金证券主要观点如下： 事件简评 12月11日，公司公告称，为推进股权激励计划，公司于12月11日购买814 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [5]. Core Views - The company demonstrates confidence in its future development by repurchasing 8.14 million shares at an average price of 12.26 HKD, totaling 99.77 million HKD [2]. - The Hilo product line is gaining traction, with strong promotional efforts from British American Tobacco (BAT) leading to a 50% retention rate among traditional and heated tobacco consumers, which supports future sales growth [3]. - The core vaping business is recovering, benefiting from regulatory crackdowns on illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. and a shift in European markets towards compliant products. BAT expects revenue recovery in the U.S. market by the second half of 2025, with a projected market share increase [4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the expanding compliant vaping market in Europe and the U.S., with a focus on accelerating the global promotion of Hilo products by 2026 [4]. Financial Summary - The company’s projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are 0.22, 0.37, and 0.59 CNY, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 53, 31, and 20 [5]. - Revenue is expected to grow from 11,168 million CNY in 2023 to 20,462 million CNY by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20.48% [10]. - The net profit is projected to recover from 1,303 million CNY in 2024 to 3,656 million CNY by 2027, indicating a significant growth trajectory [10].

2025全年收入增长平稳，受竞争活动及资源重新分配影响。Glo品牌在全球主要市场的销量份 额-1.2pct，主要受日本竞争影响，同时公司逐步淘汰传统设备线。高端新品Glo Hilo日本达份额1%(高端 市场2%)，波兰及意大利市场份额获取更快。2026年Glo品牌目标整体份额降幅收窄、企稳回升，主要 由Glo Hilo驱动。 雾化电子烟继续受益市场环境优化，新型口含烟高增延续 美国市场改善推动2025 H2收入表现提升(2025H1同比-13%)。Vuse品牌在主要市场价值份额+0.1pct，其 中美国+0.7pct，部分市场增长被加拿大非法电子烟影响。与此同时，高端新产品Vuse Ultra在加拿大、 德国和法国市场试水表现优异，预计2026年加速全球推广。新型口含烟方面，2025全年Velo Plus驱动美 国地区业务实现三位数增长，推动美国地区市场率+9.2pct至15.6%，在全球主要市场份额+5.9pct至 31.8%。同时，Velo Plus启动进入欧洲市场，预计初期采取类似美国的促销策略。新品方面，2025年9月 以来Velo shift在瑞典市场反馈积极。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报 ...