证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工业金属 鼎胜新材（603876） 2025 年业绩预告点评：电池箔盈利水平明显 提升，Q4 业绩超预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 19,064 | 24,022 | 26,582 | 30,163 | 33,019 | | 同比（%） | (11.76) | 26.01 | 10.66 | 13.47 | 9.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 534.83 | 301.09 | 522.25 | 904.18 | 1,102.78 | | 同比（%） | (61.29) | (43.70) | 73.45 | 73.13 | 21.96 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.58 | 0.32 | 0.56 | 0.97 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 27.21 | 48.33 | 27.86 | 16.09 | 13.20 | ...

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·工业金属 鼎胜新材（603876） 2025 年业绩预告点评：电池箔盈利水平明显 提升，Q4 业绩超预期 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 19,064 | 24,022 | 26,582 | 30,163 | 33,019 | | 同比（%） | (11.76) | 26.01 | 10.66 | 13.47 | 9.47 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 534.83 | 301.09 | 522.25 | 904.18 | 1,102.78 | | 同比（%） | (61.29) | (43.70) | 73.45 | 73.13 | 21.96 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.58 | 0.32 | 0.56 | 0.97 | 1.19 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 27.21 | 48.33 | 27.86 | 16.09 | 13.20 | ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights significant growth in the shipment of coated carbon foil and anticipates an improvement in the profitability of battery foil [1] - The company has experienced a substantial increase in sales volume for battery foil and coated carbon foil, with the latter seeing a nearly 50% year-on-year increase due to strong demand in energy storage [7] - The report projects that the company's revenue will grow from 19,064 million RMB in 2023 to 29,823 million RMB by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 8.45% [1][8] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from a decline in 2024 to 754.80 million RMB by 2027, indicating a growth rate of 25.45% [1][8] - The report estimates that the company will achieve a diluted EPS of 0.81 RMB by 2027, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 30.96 in 2024 to 12.35 in 2027 [1][8] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 13.31 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%, and a net profit of 190 million RMB, up 2.3% year-on-year [7] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 8.8%, slightly down by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [7] - The company plans to expand its production capacity for light foil at an annual rate of 5-10% and for coated carbon foil at an annual rate of 20-30% [7] - The report anticipates that the company's operating cash flow will improve, with a significant increase of 49.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [7] - Capital expenditures have decreased by 39.6% in the first half of 2025, indicating a more cautious investment approach [7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.02 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 301.09 million yuan, a decrease of 43.70% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates that the profitability of various products will stabilize in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 500.99 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 66.39% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability levels across its product lines, particularly in battery foil and packaging foil, with specific projections for sales volumes and profit margins [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 19.064 billion yuan - 2024: 24.022 billion yuan - 2025: 25.461 billion yuan - 2026: 27.500 billion yuan - 2027: 29.823 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2024: 26.01% - 2025: 5.99% - 2026: 8.01% - 2027: 8.45% [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 534.83 million yuan - 2024: 301.09 million yuan - 2025: 500.99 million yuan - 2026: 602.11 million yuan - 2027: 755.27 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2024: -43.70% - 2025: 66.39% - 2026: 20.18% - 2027: 25.44% [1][9] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the company as follows: - 2024: 24.95 - 2025: 15.00 - 2026: 12.48 - 2027: 9.95 - The target price for the stock is set at 10.8 yuan, based on a valuation of 20 times the earnings for 2025 [8][9]