神火股份 20250730 摘要 神火股份是河南省重点支持的煤炭及铝加工企业集团，拥有煤炭、电解 铝及铝箔等业务，受益于焦煤价格上涨，电解铝和煤炭业务是核心产品， 2024 年电解铝营收占比达 68%，煤炭营收占比约 18%。 公司通过在新疆和云南建设电解铝生产集群，截至 2024 年底，拥有 170 万吨电解铝产能，其中 80 万吨位于新疆，90 万吨位于云南，具备 40 万吨预备阳极原材料自足能力，产业链上下游配套完整性以及一体化 布局是其显著优势。 公司期间费用率处于中低位水平，三费水平总体呈下降趋势，截至 2024 年底降至 3.3%，但对比同行业仍处中高位水平，主要由于较高短 期借款及长期借款导致，未来资产负债率仍有较大下降空间。 公司高度重视投资者回报，2024 年总分红金额达 18 亿元，占比 42% 左右，上市至今累计分红 94.3 亿元，占比 33%，随着未来盈利持续向 好，预计分红比例将进一步提升。 新疆地区的低煤价使得公司电解铝生产成本显著低于其他地区，单吨电 解铝电力成本较云南低约 1,300 元，较山东低近 4,000 元，云南水电铝 项目享有低碳溢价，每吨可节省 11.2 吨碳排放 ...

Group 1 - The company holds a 49% stake in Shangqiu Xinfang, which is a joint venture, and there are no other relationships that could lead to conflicts of interest [10][11] - Shangqiu Xinfang is not listed as a dishonest entity in the national credit information system [11] - The business scope of Shangqiu Xinfang includes the development and production of non-ferrous metal composite materials, as well as related sales and services [11] Group 2 - Before the transaction, the equity structure of Shenhuo New Materials is outlined, and after the transaction, it will change accordingly [10][12] - Shenhuo New Materials has clear property rights and is not involved in any litigation or judicial measures that would hinder ownership transfer [14] - The total amount of guarantees provided by Shenhuo New Materials is 489 million RMB [15] Group 3 - The financial statements of Shenhuo New Materials have been audited by Ernst & Young, with a report issued as of December 31, 2024 [16] - The valuation of Shenhuo New Materials' total equity is assessed at 2,031 million RMB using the income approach, which is lower than the market approach by 167 million RMB, reflecting a 7.60% difference [8][11] - The valuation conclusion indicates an increase in value of 2.39 million RMB, with a growth rate of 1.19% compared to the audited book value [11] Group 4 - The transfer of 14.6869% equity in Shenhuo New Materials is publicly listed for sale, with a base price of approximately 298.29 million RMB [13] - The transaction is set to take place from July 7, 2025, to August 4, 2025, with specific conditions for potential buyers [13][14] - The payment for the transaction is required to be made in a lump sum [14] Group 5 - If the acquisition of Shenhuo New Materials is completed, it will become a wholly-owned subsidiary, enhancing the company's market position in the aluminum foil industry [16] - The transaction will not change the scope of the company's consolidated financial statements and will not introduce new operational risks [16] - The funding for the acquisition will come from the company's own resources, ensuring that existing operations remain unaffected [16]

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to acquire a 14.6869% stake in Shenhuo New Materials for 298 million yuan, aiming to strengthen its market position in the aluminum foil industry and enhance its core competitiveness [1]. Group 1 - The company will use its own funds to acquire the stake through a public bidding process [1]. - The transaction is expected to make Shenhuo New Materials a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company upon completion [1]. - The acquisition is not anticipated to affect the normal operations of the company's existing business [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 24.02 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 26.01%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 301.09 million yuan, a decrease of 43.70% year-on-year [8] - The report anticipates that the profitability of various products will stabilize in 2025, with a forecasted net profit of 500.99 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 66.39% year-on-year [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable profitability levels across its product lines, particularly in battery foil and packaging foil, with specific projections for sales volumes and profit margins [8] Financial Projections - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 19.064 billion yuan - 2024: 24.022 billion yuan - 2025: 25.461 billion yuan - 2026: 27.500 billion yuan - 2027: 29.823 billion yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at: - 2024: 26.01% - 2025: 5.99% - 2026: 8.01% - 2027: 8.45% [1][9] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted as follows: - 2023: 534.83 million yuan - 2024: 301.09 million yuan - 2025: 500.99 million yuan - 2026: 602.11 million yuan - 2027: 755.27 million yuan - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at: - 2024: -43.70% - 2025: 66.39% - 2026: 20.18% - 2027: 25.44% [1][9] Valuation Metrics - The report estimates the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the company as follows: - 2024: 24.95 - 2025: 15.00 - 2026: 12.48 - 2027: 9.95 - The target price for the stock is set at 10.8 yuan, based on a valuation of 20 times the earnings for 2025 [8][9]