专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 美国联合健康集团于本周二发布 2026 年调整后利润预期，该数值略高于分析师此前的预估。这一信号 表明，公司首席执行官斯蒂芬・赫姆斯利推行的医疗成本管控措施已开始显现成效。 赫姆斯利于去年 5 月重返首席执行官岗位，肩负着重塑投资者与消费者对这家医疗健康巨头信任的重 任。此前，联合健康集团深陷多事之秋，不仅遭遇高管遇刺事件、医疗成本飙升、联邦政府调查等多重 危机，还因保险行业的相关操作引发美国民众的不满。赫姆斯利上任后，正致力于带领公司走出这一困 境。 联合健康集团原本计划在 2026 年实现业绩回升，但公司同时表示，面向美国低收入群体的医疗补助 （Medicaid）业务复苏之路充满挑战，根源在于医疗服务的报销标准与实际成本不匹配。此外，公司还 缩减了面向老年人的联邦医疗保险优势计划（Medicare Advantage）相关产品的供给。 责任编辑：郭明煜 专题：聚焦美股2025年第四季度财报 美国联邦政府于本周一公布提案，计划明年将私营保险公司运营的联邦医疗保险优势计划的报销比例平 均上调 0.09%，这一增幅远低于华尔街的预期。 受此消息影响，哈门那、西维斯健康、联合 ...

Core Points - The U.S. federal government has shut down for the first time in nearly seven years, affecting approximately 750,000 federal employees who will be forced to take unpaid leave [1][5] - The shutdown is expected to delay the release of significant economic data, including the September non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), complicating decision-making for the Federal Reserve [1][11][13] - The economic impact of the shutdown is projected to be around $7 billion in GDP loss per week, with potential long-term effects on investor and consumer confidence [1][16] Federal Employee Impact - Approximately 750,000 federal employees will be on unpaid leave, costing about $400 million in daily wages [1] - Essential services will continue to operate, but non-essential government projects, such as national parks, may face closures [1][5] - The financial strain on federal employees could lead to severe economic difficulties, as seen during the previous shutdown from 2018 to 2019 [5][11] Political Dynamics - The shutdown reflects ongoing political battles between the two parties, primarily centered around healthcare funding and the Affordable Care Act [9][10] - Both parties are using the shutdown as leverage to force concessions from each other, with Democrats seeking to restore nearly $1 trillion in Medicaid funding [9][10] - The political landscape has shifted, with both parties believing that a shutdown may be more beneficial to their interests compared to previous instances [9][10] Economic Data Release - The Labor Department has indicated that all operations will pause during the shutdown, leading to the postponement of various economic reports [11][12] - Key reports, including the September non-farm payroll and CPI, are scheduled for release but may be delayed due to the shutdown [12][13] Market Reactions - Historical data suggests that the stock market may experience short-term pressure during the shutdown, but typically rebounds in the months following the reopening [18] - U.S. Treasury yields are expected to rise during the shutdown, as investor concerns about fiscal stability increase [20] - Gold prices tend to increase with the duration of the shutdown, reflecting heightened uncertainty in the market [23]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses various aspects of public economics, focusing on unemployment insurance, disability insurance, Medicaid, inheritance motives, and healthcare reforms, highlighting disparities and impacts on different demographics and systems [2][3][4][5][6]. Unemployment Insurance - There is significant racial inequality in unemployment insurance benefits in the U.S., with Black individuals being 30% less likely to receive benefits and receiving 46% less in benefits compared to White individuals. This gap is partly explained by lower pre-unemployment earnings and a higher tendency for Black individuals to live in the South [9][10]. - The withdrawal of expanded unemployment insurance benefits led to an increase in job-finding, particularly among financially constrained individuals, but also resulted in higher demand for other government services and increased credit defaults [13][14]. Disability Insurance - A policy change from a "cash cliff" mechanism to a "benefit offset ramp" did not significantly affect the income or benefit amounts of disability insurance beneficiaries, indicating limited impact due to administrative burdens and systemic barriers [16][17]. Medicaid - Outsourcing Medicaid services to private insurers initially reduced fiscal costs but led to continuous increases in Medicaid spending over subsequent years, with costs in mandated counties rising by 9.8% four years post-mandate [18][19]. - The implementation of Medicaid managed care improved healthcare quality and access for beneficiaries, with positive spillover effects observed in non-Medicaid privately insured individuals, particularly in low-income areas [27][28]. Inheritance Motives - The distribution of inheritances among married couples after the death of one spouse resembles that of single individuals, with no evidence supporting altruistic or dynastic models. Different asset types exhibit varying distribution patterns, with life insurance and housing often being distributed unequally [20][21][22]. Healthcare Reforms - A healthcare reform that standardized procedures for specific diseases resulted in a 4.4% average decrease in mortality rates for those diseases, indicating improved healthcare outcomes without resource shifts explaining the effect [24][25].