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美股观察|美联储仍有望在9月开启降息,宽松环境或能延续
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-09-02 11:14
Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US July PCE did not exceed expectations but remains at a high level, with service prices driving core inflation. The July PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and previous values; month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, matching expectations but lower than the previous 0.3% [1] - In July, US durable goods orders continued to decline, but core durable goods orders rebounded strongly, with the difference attributed to fluctuations in aircraft orders. Durable goods orders fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8% and previous decline of 9.4%; excluding transportation, orders rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and previous 0.3% [1] - New home sales in the US saw a significant drop compared to the previous month. July new home sales decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.5% and previous 4.1%; total sales reached 652,000 units, better than the expected 630,000 units but lower than the previous 656,000 units [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of August 25-29, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.37%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.35%, and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.10%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains, with energy leading at 2.46% and utilities lagging at -2.10% [2] Group 3: Investment Direction - The US Q2 GDP revision was upwardly adjusted due to strong business investment, indicating economic resilience. The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts, catalyzing a recovery trade. Concerns arose regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve following Trump's dismissal of a board member, leading to a decline in the dollar and US Treasury yields, while gold prices increased [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly increased compared to the previous week, with a current probability of 86.6% for a rate cut starting in September. Recent inflation data shows a relatively mild impact from tariffs, with the burden primarily on net exporters, and CPI pressure expected to concentrate in Q4 [4]