数据来源：Wind 配置方向 宏观经济方面，美国9月PCE物价指数在预期内维持高位，但个人消费支出环比增幅边际回落。美国9月 PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%持平预期，高于前值2.7%；美国9月PCE物价指数环比上涨0.3%，持平预期 和前值。美国9月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，持平预期，低于前值2.9%；美国9月核心PCE物价指 数环比上涨0.2%，持平预期和前值。美国9月个人消费支出环比上涨0.3%，持平预期值，低于前值 0.5%；美国9月实际个人消费支出环比0%，低于预期值0.1%和前值0.2%。 美国11月制造业继续收缩，服务业则加速扩张。美国11月ISM制造业指数录得48.2%，低于预期值49% 和前值48.7%美国11月ISM服务业指数录得52.6%，高于预期值52%和前值52.4%。美国11月ADP就业大 幅低于预期，专业服务、信息和制造业等多行业就业继续负增，企业招聘需求放缓。 美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，不及预期值1万人和前值4.2万人。美国12月消费者信心明显改善， 通胀预期有所回落。 美国12月密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值录得52.3%，好于预期值52%和前值51%。美 ...

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to heightened US-China trade tensions [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The one-year inflation expectation for October is at 4.6, slightly lower than the expected 4.7 and the previous 4.7, while the five-year inflation expectation remains stable at 3.7 [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of October 6-10, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of the eleven sectors showing gains [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Direction - The threat of tariffs from Trump has triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in US stocks and a rise in gold prices [3] - The impact of the tariffs on US-China trade and economy is considered less significant compared to April, with market reactions being more desensitized [3] - There are ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, indicating a divergence of opinions [3]

Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US July PCE did not exceed expectations but remains at a high level, with service prices driving core inflation. The July PCE increased by 2.6% year-on-year, consistent with expectations and previous values; month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, matching expectations but lower than the previous 0.3% [1] - In July, US durable goods orders continued to decline, but core durable goods orders rebounded strongly, with the difference attributed to fluctuations in aircraft orders. Durable goods orders fell by 2.8% month-on-month, better than the expected decline of 3.8% and previous decline of 9.4%; excluding transportation, orders rose by 1.1%, exceeding expectations of 0.2% and previous 0.3% [1] - New home sales in the US saw a significant drop compared to the previous month. July new home sales decreased by 0.6% month-on-month, falling short of the expected 0.5% and previous 4.1%; total sales reached 652,000 units, better than the expected 630,000 units but lower than the previous 656,000 units [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of August 25-29, the S&P Oil & Gas Index rose by 3.37%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell by 0.35%, and the S&P 500 Index decreased by 0.10%. Among the 11 sectors covered by the S&P 500, 3 sectors saw gains, with energy leading at 2.46% and utilities lagging at -2.10% [2] Group 3: Investment Direction - The US Q2 GDP revision was upwardly adjusted due to strong business investment, indicating economic resilience. The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate interest rate cuts, catalyzing a recovery trade. Concerns arose regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve following Trump's dismissal of a board member, leading to a decline in the dollar and US Treasury yields, while gold prices increased [4] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts have slightly increased compared to the previous week, with a current probability of 86.6% for a rate cut starting in September. Recent inflation data shows a relatively mild impact from tariffs, with the burden primarily on net exporters, and CPI pressure expected to concentrate in Q4 [4]