Group 1: US Macroeconomic Data - The US government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, due to the failure to pass a temporary funding bill, leading to heightened US-China trade tensions [1] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October recorded at 55, slightly above the expected 54 but below the previous value of 55.1 [1] - The one-year inflation expectation for October is at 4.6, slightly lower than the expected 4.7 and the previous 4.7, while the five-year inflation expectation remains stable at 3.7 [1] Group 2: Major Index Performance - For the week of October 6-10, the S&P Oil & Gas Index fell by 6.94%, the Nasdaq 100 Index decreased by 2.27%, and the S&P 500 Index dropped by 2.43%, with only two of the eleven sectors showing gains [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Investment Direction - The threat of tariffs from Trump has triggered risk-averse trading, leading to declines in US stocks and a rise in gold prices [3] - The impact of the tariffs on US-China trade and economy is considered less significant compared to April, with market reactions being more desensitized [3] - There are ongoing discussions within the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rate paths, indicating a divergence of opinions [3]

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：博时基金） 一、美国宏观经济数据 美国7月PCE未超预期，但仍维持高位，服务价格上涨拉升核心通胀。美国7月PCE同比上涨2.6%，与预 期值和前值一致；美国7月PCE环比上涨0.2%，与预期持平，低于前值0.3%。美国7月核心PCE同比上涨 2.9%，与预期持平，高于前值2.8%；美国7月核心PCE环比上涨0.3%。与预期、前值一致。 美国7月耐用品订单继续减少，但核心耐用品订单强力反弹，二者差异源于飞机订单的波动。美国7月耐 用品订单环比下降2.8%，跌幅小于预期值-3.8%和前值-9.4%；美国7月扣除运输类耐用品订单环比上升 1.1%，高于预期值0.2%和前值0.3%；美国7月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品订单环比上升1.1%，高于预期 值0.2%和前值-0.6%。 美国7月新屋需求较前月大幅回落。美国7月新屋销售环比减少0.6%，不及预期0.5%和前值4.1%；美国7 月新屋销售共65.2万户，好于预期63万户，不及前值65.6万户。 二、主要指数相关情况 1、 一周指数表现 上周（8月25日-29日），标普油气指数整周上涨3.37%，纳斯达克100指数整周下跌0.35%，标普5 ...