晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-05-16 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 地缘溢价回吐，原油震荡偏弱 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：中美经贸会谈达成实质性成果，宏观因子转向乐观。OPEC+产油国加快产能释放未让油价 跌破前低。北半球原油消费旺季到来，炼厂开工率回升，商业库存步入去化周期。国际资金有望增 加油市净多头寸。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic crude oil futures 2507 contract is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and oscillating trend [1][5] - Crude oil is supported by bullish factors and will run strongly [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Time - cycle Views - Short - term (within a week): The trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillating [1] - Medium - term (two weeks to one month): The trend of crude oil 2507 is oscillating, and the medium - term view of crude oil (SC) is also oscillating [1][5] - Intraday: The intraday view of crude oil 2507 is slightly bullish and oscillating, and the intraday view of crude oil (SC) is the same [1][5] Core Logic - Sino - US economic and trade talks have achieved substantial results, and macro factors have turned optimistic [5] - OPEC+ oil - producing countries have accelerated capacity release without causing oil prices to fall below previous lows [5] - The peak crude oil consumption season in the Northern Hemisphere has arrived, refinery operating rates have rebounded, and commercial inventories have entered a destocking cycle [5] - International funds are expected to increase net long positions in the oil market [5] Price Performance - On Wednesday night, the price of domestic crude oil futures showed an oscillating and stabilizing trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.02% to 478.4 yuan per barrel [5]