申银万国期货研究所 陆甲明 （从业编号F3079531 交易咨询号Z0015919） 免 责 声 明 本公司具有中国证监会核准的期货交易咨询业务资格 （核准文号 证监许可[2011]1284号） 研究局限性和风险提示 报告中依据和结论存在范围局限性，对未来预测存在不及预期，以及宏观环境和产业链影响因素存在不确定性变化等风险。 分析师声明 作者具有期货交易咨询执业资格，保证报告所采用的数据均来自合规渠道，分析逻辑基于作者的职业理解，本报告清晰准确地 反映了作者的研究观点，力求独立、客观和公正，结论不受任何第三方的授意或影响，作者及利益相关方不曾因也将不会因本 报告中的具体推荐意见或观点而直接或间接获取任何形式的不当利益。 免责声明 本报告的信息均来源于第三方信息提供商或其他已公开信息，本公司对这些信息的准确性、完整性、时效性或可靠性不作任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但文中 的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述品种的买卖出价，投资者据此做出的任何投资决策与本公司 无关。 本报告所涵括的信息仅供交流研讨，投资者应合 ...

Group 1: Market News and Key Data - The price of light crude oil futures for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 18 cents, closing at $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for January delivery fell 19 cents, closing at $64.20 per barrel, a decrease of 0.3%. The main SC crude oil contract rose 0.24%, closing at 462 yuan per barrel [1] - Ukraine's General Staff claimed to have attacked the Novogubyshevsk Refinery of Rosneft in the Samara region of Russia, the latest in a series of attacks on Russia's fuel production industry in the country's deep - seated areas [1] - Serbian President Vucic said on October 16 that the government was willing to repurchase the controlling stake held by Gazprom at a premium to help NIS, the country's only refinery, get out of the US sanctions dilemma [1] - The Prime Minister of Iraq told the former CEO of Lukoil that Iraq remained committed to stabilizing the global oil market, and Lukoil's West Qurna oil field continued to produce about 480,000 barrels of oil per day [1] - The analysis of the US Treasury Department's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) pointed out that sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil could have a long - term negative impact on Russia's oil sales volume, cutting Russia's oil revenue and driving Russian crude oil prices to multi - year lows [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Media reported that the loading operations at the Sheskharis Oil Terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, had resumed after last week's attack. However, satellite images showed that the loading of Urals crude oil was still interrupted, and two berths at the Sheskharis Port were not operating normally. The loading speed of the Sheskharis Oil Terminal, especially for Urals crude oil, was still below normal levels. The port used to export about 500,000 barrels per day of Russian crude oil [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term oil prices are expected to fluctuate, and a medium - term short position is recommended (shorting the monthly spread, Brent, or WTI) [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include tighter supply of sanctioned oil (from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela) and large - scale supply disruptions due to conflicts in the Middle East [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run weakly, with a short - term outlook of being weak, a medium - term outlook of being volatile, and an intraday view of being weak [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Movement and Outlook - The short - term view of crude oil 2601 is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is also weak, with an overall expectation of weak operation [1]. - It is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract may maintain a weak trend on Friday [5]. Driving Logic - The latest quarterly report of OPEC changed the global oil market in the third quarter from "supply shortage" to "a daily surplus of 500,000 barrels", amplifying the expectation of loose supply [5]. - The US EIA simultaneously lowered the price forecasts of US crude oil and Brent crude oil for this year and next year, and the latest weekly inventory continued to decline, but the decline was weaker than expected [5]. - There is a lack of new demand drivers at the macro level, coupled with a slight strengthening of the US dollar. Speculative funds reduced their positions, and the WTI far - month contract showed a contango structure, intensifying short - term selling pressure [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The crude oil 2601 contract is expected to run strongly, with a short - term weak trend, a medium - term oscillating trend, and a strong intraday trend [1][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Information Price and Trend - On the night of Monday this week, the domestic crude oil futures 2601 contract maintained an oscillating and stable trend, with the futures price slightly rising 0.06% to 462.9 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Tuesday, the contract may maintain a strong trend [5] Driving Logic - The US Senate has reached an agreement to end the federal government shutdown, warming market sentiment and boosting investors' risk appetite. As geopolitical sentiment is digested, the crude oil futures market returns to a supply - demand fundamental - driven market [5]

（责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 每经AI快讯，11月7日，Nymex美原油期货主力刚刚突破60.00美元/桶关口，最新报60.05美元/桶， 日内涨1.04%；布伦特原油期货主力刚刚触及64.00美元/桶关口，最新报64.00美元/桶，日内涨0.91%。 每日经济新闻 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report's Core View - The crude oil 2512 contract is expected to run weakly, with short - term and medium - term trends being oscillatory and oscillatory - weak respectively, and the intraday trend also being oscillatory - weak [1][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period Views - **Short - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory trend [1] - **Medium - term**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1] - **Intraday**: The crude oil 2512 contract shows an oscillatory - weak trend [1][5] 3.2 Price and Driving Logic - After the meeting between the leaders of China and the US, the overall results were slightly lower than market expectations. As the macro - bullish sentiment was digested, the driving force of macro factors weakened, and there was a profit - taking phenomenon. The escalation of the South American geopolitical conflict due to the US troop increase in the Caribbean Sea last weekend boosted the international crude oil premium, which hedged geopolitical risks to some extent. On Wednesday night, the domestic crude oil futures 2512 contract maintained an oscillatory - weak trend, with the futures price slightly down 0.95% to 457.7 yuan/barrel. It is expected that on Thursday, the contract will maintain an oscillatory - weak trend [5]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic synthetic rubber futures market is experiencing a "weak reality, weak expectation" trend due to multiple factors, with prices under pressure from weak cost factors and increasing supply pressure, while demand struggles to absorb the excess supply [1][5]. Supply Side - By 2025, domestic butadiene production capacity is expected to increase by 980,000 tons, reaching a total capacity of 7.677 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.6%, which exacerbates the oversupply pressure in the industry [3]. - Despite some companies reducing output or undergoing maintenance due to long-term losses, the overall market supply has not effectively contracted due to new production facilities coming online [3]. - As of mid-October, social inventory of polybutadiene rubber has risen to 32,800 tons, continuing to grow month-on-month, while factory inventories remain at historically high levels [3]. Demand Side - The recovery in the tire industry, the main downstream application for synthetic rubber, has not met expectations, with production capacity utilization rates showing a year-on-year decline despite a month-on-month increase [4]. - As of October 24, the capacity utilization rate for domestic semi-steel tire manufacturers was 72.84%, up 1.77 percentage points month-on-month but down 6.84 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The inventory turnover days for domestic tire companies are increasing, indicating poor terminal sales and significant destocking pressure, with procurement strategies focusing on just-in-time purchasing [4]. External Environment - Increasing uncertainty in the external environment is further suppressing the release of export orders, contributing to the overall challenges faced by the domestic synthetic rubber market [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report Core View - Polyolefin futures declined slightly. Spot prices of linear LL and拉丝PP from Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. Fundamentally, polyolefins have gradually stopped falling. With the easing of the external environment, crude oil has stopped falling and rebounded, and polyolefins have followed the crude oil trend. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily released. Currently, the supply - demand pressure of polyolefins is temporarily limited, and the market may maintain a short - term oscillating rebound trend [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - **Prices**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7024, 7090, and 7119 respectively, up 55, 69, and 69 from the day before, with increases of 0.79%, 0.98%, and 0.98%. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6699, 6768, and 6770 respectively, up 37, 49, and 42, with increases of 0.56%, 0.73%, and 0.62% [2] - **Trading Volume**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 241446, 30216, and 144 respectively. For PP, they were 262100, 37290, and 1332 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interests of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 523862, 66492, and 1155 respectively, with changes of - 5325, 3904, and 19. For PP, they were 608347, 130837, and 6741, with changes of 247, 3976, and 600 [2] - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 66, - 29, and 95 respectively, compared to previous values of - 52, - 29, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 69, - 2, and 71, compared to previous values of - 57, - 9, and 66 [2] Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 2274 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 537 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6480 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2271 yuan/ton, 6025 yuan/ton, 542 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6500 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2] - **Mid - stream Spot**: For LL, the current prices in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7000 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7150 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7500 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, they were 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, 6500 - 6600 yuan/ton, and 6500 - 6650 yuan/ton [2] Market News - On Monday (October 27), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $61.31 per barrel, down $0.19 or 0.31% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $60.67 - $62.17. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.62 per barrel, down $0.32 or 0.49% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.06 - $66.64 [2]

隔夜，WTI 原油期货收跌1.66%，报61.51美元/桶。 中国经济网北京10月10日讯 今日，上海国际能源交易中心日间盘原油期货主力合约震荡收跌，成交放 大，持仓增加。主力2511合约收报461.9元，跌1.45%或6.8元;成交量为67796手;持仓为28500手，日盘持 仓增加2282手。 （责任编辑：张海蛟） ...

原油日报 | 2025-09-26 策略 伊土原油管道出口将恢复 市场要闻与重要数据 1.\t纽约商品交易所11月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌1美分，收于每桶64.98美元，跌幅为0.02%；11月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格上涨11美分，收于每桶69.42美元，涨幅为0.16%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.45%，报491元/桶。 2. \t俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克周四表示，俄罗斯将在年底前对柴油出口实施部分禁令，并延长目前对汽油出口的禁令。 在乌克兰加强了对众多炼油厂的无人机袭击之后，俄罗斯几个地区正面临某些等级燃料的短缺。报道引述诺瓦克 的话说，石油产品有少量短缺，但库存已被用来补缺。柴油禁令适用于转售者，而不适用于生产商。汽油禁令既 涉及生产商，也包括转售商，但不影响俄罗斯与蒙古等其他一些国家之间的政府间协议。诺瓦克表示："我们将很 快将汽油出口禁令延长至今年年底，对非生产商的柴油出口禁令也将延长至今年年底。"(来源：Bloomberg） 3.\t伊拉克总理宣布，已达成协议，将通过伊拉克-土耳其管道出口库尔德油田的石油。（来源：Bloomberg） 4.\t印度官员再次向特朗普政府表明，若要该国炼油商大幅削减俄 ...