SC价差走强突破前高，库存骤降支撑油价震荡反弹 一、日度市场总结 原油期货市场数据变动分析 主力合约与基差：2025年8月21日，SC原油主力合约大幅上涨1.68%至490.9 元/桶，突破近日震荡区间，WTI与Brent主力合约价格维持62.84美元/桶和 67.04美元/桶不变。SC与其他基准原油价差显著走强，SC-Brent价差从前 一日的0.21美元/桶扩大至1.35美元/桶（涨幅542.86%），SC-WTI价差亦从 4.41美元/桶攀升至5.55美元/桶，反映中国原油期货短期强势；Brent-WTI 价差则稳定于4.2美元/桶。SC近月与连3合约价差收窄，由-4.2元/桶修复 至-2.0元/桶，显示月间结构压力有所缓解。 产业链供需及库存变化分析 供给端：美国原油出口回升至8-9月400万桶/日以上（年初以来最高），主 因国内炼厂提前进入维护期导致轻质原油过剩，叠加亚洲市场对美国原油 偏好增强（WTI较中东原油贴水）。此外，OPEC+加速解除220万桶/日自愿 减产的潜在风险仍压制市场情绪，需警惕供应放量压力。地缘方面，英国 对伊朗商业实体制裁或加剧伊朗原油出口受限风险，但对实际贸易流影响 有限。 ...

原油日报 | 2025-08-21 印度表示将继续进口俄油，友谊管道输油恢复 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨86美分，收于每桶63.21美元，涨幅为1.38%；10月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.05美元，收于每桶66.84美元，涨幅为1.60%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.95%，报487元/ 桶。 2、 俄罗斯驻印副贸易代表Evgeny Griva表示，即使印度可能面临更高的美国关税，俄罗斯仍预计印度会继续购买 其石油。Griva周三表示，印度对俄油的进口可能会维持在当前水平。这一表态正值美印关税紧张局势升级之际。 特朗普已对印度商品加征25%关税，并威胁将在8月27日把关税提高至50%，其中一半的处罚针对印度购买俄油， 美国认为这帮助资助了普京在乌克兰的战争。印度则为其从最便宜来源采购的权利进行辩护，称关税"不合理"。 Griva表示，俄罗斯向印度出售石油的价格约有5%的折扣，使印度几乎没有替代选择。截至2025年年中，印度从俄 罗斯进口的石油约为每日170万桶，占该国海外采购总量的近37%。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、 俄罗斯石油的折扣幅度加大，印度国 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 2. Report's Core View - The core view is to provide the latest price changes of international crude oil futures and relevant news, and give an investment suggestion of short - term observation and holding long - short spreads for crude oil [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs International Crude Oil - WTI9 crude oil futures closed down $1.07 per barrel, a 1.69% decline, at $62.35 per barrel; Brent October crude oil futures closed down $0.81 per barrel, a 1.21% decline, at $65.79 per barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures closed down 4.20 yuan per barrel, a 0.87% decline, at 480.90 yuan per barrel [1] Trend Strength - The trend strength of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral view. The value range of trend strength is [- 2,2] [2][3] API Inventory Data - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 15 was - 2417000 barrels, expected - 1587000 barrels, and the previous value was 1519000 barrels. There are also data on API Cushing crude oil inventory, gasoline inventory, refined oil inventory, heating oil inventory, crude oil imports, and refined oil imports [2] International News - Trump is arranging a meeting between Putin and Zelensky. Macron suggests the meeting be held in Geneva, Switzerland. Trump and Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán discussed Ukraine's EU accession negotiations and Budapest as a possible meeting place. The EU Commission spokesperson said to continue pressuring Russia, and NATO and EU accession issues should be decided by Ukraine. Trump believes all indicators show that interest rates need to be significantly lowered. Indian Prime Minister Modi met with Wang Yi and said that India and China are partners rather than rivals [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short - term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current market is less operable, with a wait - and - see approach recommended [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is still sensitive to upside risks caused by geopolitical factors, and it is recommended to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the - money options [2] - The fuel oil market has abundant arrivals, and the supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil is marginally relieved, with different performance in variety spreads [3] - The supply and demand of asphalt are expected to tighten marginally, with the price range - bound and the crack spread expected to gradually recover [4] - The overseas LPG market is stable, while the domestic market is under pressure, and the market is in a low - level shock [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, the crude oil futures fluctuated, and the SC09 contract fell 0.71% due to the impact of position transfer. The risk of Russian oil sanctions is trending to ease, but short - term uncertainties remain. The market is sensitive to upside risks from geopolitical factors, and it is advisable to continue holding the double - buy strategy of out - of - the money options [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The arrival of fuel oil in the Asian market is abundant, with weak ship - bunkering and power - generation demands. The inventories in Singapore and Fujairah are high, and the diesel crack spread in Singapore continues to decline. The approval of the quota for converting low - sulfur fuel oil to refined oil by main refineries marginally relieves the supply pressure, and LU is boosted. FU is weaker than LU but stronger than SC, and the FU crack spread strengthens [3] Asphalt - The supply and demand of asphalt have tightened slightly as expected. The diversion effect of Venezuelan oil imports by the US on North Asian resources may gradually appear, and the cumulative output of asphalt by Sinopec is declining year - on - year. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, the road demand is expected to rise. The August shipment volume of sample refineries increased 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive. The BU price follows SC but shows certain resistance to decline. The price of the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate narrowly between 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton, and the crack spread is expected to gradually recover [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market is stable, with increased exports but supported by East Asian procurement demand. The domestic imports and refinery out - put are rising, and domestic gas is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is continuously weakening, and the sustainability of the high operating rate needs attention. The market is waiting for the implementation of bearish expectations, with strong pressure at the top due to high warehouse receipts, and the high - basis pattern can continue, mainly in low - level shock [5]

每经AI快讯，8月15日，WTI原油期货主力合约日内涨逾2%，现报63.92美元/桶。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

每经AI快讯，布伦特原油期货涨幅扩大至1%，报67.122美元/桶。WTI原油期货涨幅扩大至1%，报 64.571美元/桶。 ...

Group 1 - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange saw a rise in the main crude oil futures contract, with the main contract 2507 closing at 462.8 yuan, an increase of 0.37% or 1.7 yuan [1] - Trading volume for the day reached 111,464 lots, while open interest increased by 554 lots to a total of 30,835 lots [1] - On May 17, WTI June crude oil futures rose by $0.87, or 1.41%, closing at $62.49 per barrel [1]

（责任编辑：康博） WTI 9月原油期货收跌1.04美元，跌幅超过1.54%，66.29美元/桶。布伦特10月原油期货收跌0.91美 元，跌幅超过1.30%，68.76美元/桶。中东Abu Dhabi Murban原油期货目前跌1.31%，北京时间02:32暂报 71.04美元/桶。NYMEX 9月天然气期货收跌将近4.90%，报2.9320美元/百万英热单位。NYMEX 9月汽油 期货收报2.1022美元/加仑，NYMEX 9月取暖油期货收报2.3176美元/加仑。周一（8月4日）欧市尾盘， ICE英国天然气期货涨0.86%，TTF基准荷兰天然气期货涨1.11%，ICE欧盟碳排放交易许可（期货价 格）跌1%。 ...

2025 年 8 月 7 日 研 究 所 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan021151@gtjas.com 【国际原油】 WTI9 原油期货收跌 0.81 美元/桶，跌幅 1.24%，报 64.35 美元/桶；布伦特 10 月原油期货收跌 0.75 美元/桶，跌幅 1.11%，报 66.89 美元/桶；SC2509 原油期货收跌 6.20 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 498.00 元/桶。 4. 白宫官员：对俄罗斯的二级制裁预计将于周五实施。 7. 美国至 8 月 1 日当周 EIA 俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存 45.3 万桶，前值 69 万桶。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 原油：多单加空远月保护，关注美对俄能源制 （以上资讯来源于金十数据） 【趋势强度】 原油趋势强度：0 裁 商 品 研 究 1. 美国总统特朗普：汽油价格将低于每加仑 2 美元。与泽连斯基和普京举行峰会的可能性较大， 目前尚未确定具体地点。 2. 白宫：俄罗斯曾表示希望与特朗普会面；特朗普愿意与普京和泽连斯基会面。 3. 阿联酋国家石油公司（ADNOC）将 9 月份穆尔班原油官方售价定为每桶 7 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term outlook: Hold off on new positions and maintain existing long positions in crude oil [1] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil futures prices declined on August 4, 2025. WTI9 crude oil futures fell by $1.93 per barrel (2.79%) to $67.33 per barrel, Brent October crude oil futures dropped by $2.03 per barrel (2.83%) to $69.67 per barrel, and SC2509 crude oil futures decreased by 15.10 yuan per barrel (2.86%) to 513.00 yuan per barrel [1] - The trend strength of crude oil is 1, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Supply and Production - Considering compensation measures, OPEC+ actual oil production may increase by 528,000 barrels per day in September. Eight OPEC+ member countries will raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and will hold their next meeting on September 7 [2] - The total number of US oil rigs as of the week ending August 1 was 410, down from 415 in the previous week [2] Geopolitical and Trade - Russia accounts for about 10% of the global oil supply. Despite US sanctions and warnings from Trump, Indian refineries continue to buy Russian oil. If the global market stops receiving Russia's daily supply of 9.5 million barrels of oil, oil prices could rise to $135 - $140 per barrel [2] - After the US imposed new sanctions, at least two ships carrying Russian oil originally destined for Indian refineries have diverted to other destinations. Trump has urged countries to stop buying Russian oil and threatened to impose a 100% tariff on countries that purchase Russian oil unless Russia reaches a major peace agreement with Ukraine [2] Economic Data - The US seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in July were 73,000, lower than the previous value of 147,000 and the expected 110,000 [2] - The preliminary annual CPI rate in the Eurozone in July was 2%, in line with the previous value and higher than the expected 1.90% [2] Market Dynamics - As Middle East oil prices rise, Asia is increasing imports of US WTI crude oil [2]