1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "volatile and bullish" [2] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the complex and changeable geopolitical situation in the Middle East, international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. This week, the domestic methanol port inventory has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly from March to April. Some olefin plants at ports downstream have resumed operation. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - On Monday night, the futures price of the main contract 2605 of methanol dropped by 47 yuan to 3347 yuan/ton, while the spot price of methanol in the mainstream area of East China rose by 155 yuan to 3515 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions increased by 3411 lots to 443,000 lots, and short positions increased by 3024 lots to 425,000 lots [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Supply**: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.7%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 48.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9% [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of methanol ports in China is 115.55 tons, a decrease of 10.62 tons compared with the previous data. Among them, the inventory in East China decreased by 8.47 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 2.15 tons. The inventory of sample methanol production enterprises in China is 43.50 tons, a decrease of 5.04 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 10.39% [2] - **Demand**: The signed orders of methanol enterprises in the northwest are 4.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.74 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 28.39 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.64%. The olefin operating rate is 86.8%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 81.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 45.6%, a month - on - month increase of 3.1%; the MBTE operating rate is 69.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3% [2] - **Import Data**: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the average import price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. Among them, the import volume from Saudi Arabia was the largest, reaching 604,400 tons, and the average import price was 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - **Oil Price**: The situation in Iran shows no sign of easing, and the Houthi armed forces have taken military actions against Israel, so the supply risk continues, and international oil prices have risen. The NYMEX crude oil futures 05 contract rose 3.24 US dollars/barrel to 102.88 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 3.25%; the ICE Brent crude oil futures 05 contract rose 0.21 US dollars/barrel to 112.78 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.19%. The Chinese INE crude oil futures 2605 contract rose 22.5 to 763 yuan/barrel, and dropped 3.1 to 759.9 yuan/barrel at night [2] 3.3 Market Logic - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is complex and changeable, and international crude oil fluctuates sharply at a high level. This week, the domestic methanol port inventory has decreased, and the import volume is expected to decline significantly from March to April. Some olefin plants at ports downstream have resumed operation. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Hold the long positions at low levels [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The short - term methanol price shows a high - level oscillating trend due to factors such as the high inventory of domestic methanol ports, the suspension of multiple olefin plants with uncertain recovery time, and the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the production and transportation of Iranian methanol. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously or partially take profits, with risks related to the development of geopolitical events [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the 2605 main contract dropped by 81 yuan to 2497 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream areas of East China fell by 40 yuan to 2465 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 64,765 lots to 458,000 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 64,195 lots to 577,000 lots [2] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 92.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.06%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 50.6%, a month - on - month increase of 4.3% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1.4435 million tons, a decrease of 3,200 tons from the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 24,200 tons, while that in South China decreased by 27,400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 552,400 tons, an increase of 17,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.19% [2] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 101,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 80,100 tons. The orders to be delivered of sample enterprises are 205,800 tons, a decrease of 109,300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 34.69%. The olefin operating rate is 85.3%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02%; the methane chloride operating rate is 82.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2%; the acetic acid operating rate is 84.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.4%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 14.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.6%; the MTBE operating rate is 67.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% [2] - Import: In December 2025, China's methanol import volume was 1.734 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24.56%, and the import average price was 240.61 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 7.23%. The largest import volume was from Saudi Arabia, which was 604,400 tons, with an import average price of 238.74 US dollars/ton. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative methanol import volume was 14.4054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.75% [2] - Oil Price: The international oil price stabilized after oscillation. The NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract rose by 0.10 US dollars/barrel to 74.66 US dollars/barrel, a month - on - month increase of 0.13%; the ICE Brent oil futures 05 contract was flat at 81.40 US dollars/barrel compared with the previous working day. The China INE crude oil futures 2604 contract rose by 61.6 to 624 yuan/barrel, and rose by 56.1 to 680.1 yuan/barrel at night [2] Market Logic - Over the weekend, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East escalated severely, and the domestic crude oil soared. The domestic methanol port inventory remains at a high level around 1.44 million tons. Although the import volume decreased from February to March, multiple olefin plants were shut down, and the recovery time is uncertain. Geopolitical conflicts have affected the production and transportation of Iranian methanol, and the restart of multiple Iranian methanol plants has been delayed [2] Trading Strategy - Hold long positions cautiously or partially take profits, with risks related to the development of geopolitical events [2]

Group 1 - US stock market opened higher but fluctuated, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly turning negative before recovering, closing with a gain of 0.42%, while the Nasdaq rose by 1% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.56% [1] - Technology stocks saw a broad rebound, with Micron Technology and SanDisk rising over 4%, Tesla and Amazon increasing nearly 3%, and Nvidia gaining over 1% [1][2] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 0.83%, with notable gains from Zai Lab and CenturyLink, both up over 4%, and Pony.ai increasing by more than 3% [4] Group 2 - International gold prices increased by over 1%, while both New York and Brent crude oil futures declined [4] - The US dollar index retreated, falling below the 99 mark, amid announcements from US Treasury Secretary that a series of announcements would be made to support oil transport in the Persian Gulf [6] - Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid noted that the current market is in a phase of closely monitoring news headlines, with conflicting messages affecting market sentiment and no signs of de-escalation in tensions [8]

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow falling 100 points, while oil prices showed slight fluctuations [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 100 points, equivalent to a 0.2% drop [1] - The S&P 500 index remained flat, showing no significant change [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index increased by 0.3%, indicating some resilience in tech stocks [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.1%, settling at $74.50 per barrel after reaching a low of $73.28 [1] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.4%, reaching $81.70 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI and Brent crude oil prices have shown significant increases in February, indicating a positive trend in the oil market [1] Group 1: Crude Oil Prices - WTI April crude oil futures rose by $1.81, a 2.78% increase, closing at $67.02 per barrel, with a weekly gain of over 0.81% and a monthly increase of 3.52% [1] - Brent April crude oil futures increased by $1.73, a 2.45% rise, closing at $72.48 per barrel, with a cumulative increase of 5.64% in February [1] - Abu Dhabi Murban crude oil futures surged by 4.26%, reaching $74.39 per barrel, with a weekly increase of 3.32% and a monthly rise of 6.71% [1] Group 2: Natural Gas and Other Fuels - NYMEX April natural gas futures settled at $2.8590 per million British thermal units, experiencing a cumulative decline of 29% in February [1] - NYMEX March gasoline futures closed at $2.0779 per gallon [1] - NYMEX March heating oil futures ended at $2.6709 per gallon [1]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the decline in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures dropping by 0.35% to $66.08 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures decreasing by 0.06% to $71.07 per barrel [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - The main focus of the article is the increase in oil prices, with both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude oil experiencing significant gains on February 19, 2023 [1] Group 1: Oil Price Movements - WTI crude oil's main contract rose by 2.49%, closing at $66.67 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil's main contract increased by 2.25%, ending at $71.93 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports an increase in oil prices, with West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rising by 1.34% to $63.73 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 1.24% to $68.59 per barrel on February 16 [1] Group 1 - WTI crude oil price closed at $63.73 per barrel after a 1.34% increase [1] - Brent crude oil price closed at $68.59 per barrel after a 1.24% increase [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2604 is volatile, the medium - term view is volatile, and the intraday view is weak. It is expected to run weakly. The core logic is that risk appetite has cooled, and crude oil is oscillating weakly [1]. - The intraday view of crude oil (SC) is weak, and the medium - term view is volatile. It is expected to run weakly. The recent marginal improvement in supply - demand fundamentals provides solid support. OPEC+ major producers will continue to suspend production increases in March 2026, and US winter storms have affected production with significant inventory drawdown. However, due to the expected US - Iran negotiation, geopolitical risk appetite has cooled, leading to a sharp decline in domestic crude oil futures on Thursday night. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures may maintain a weakly oscillating pattern on Friday [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Time - Cycle Views - For crude oil 2604, the short - term is within one week and is volatile, the medium - term is from two weeks to one month and is volatile, and the intraday view is weak [1]. - For crude oil (SC), the intraday view is weak, and the medium - term view is volatile [5]. Core Logic - For crude oil 2604, risk appetite has cooled, resulting in an oscillating and weak trend [1]. - For crude oil (SC), on the supply side, OPEC+ will continue to suspend production increases in March 2026, and US winter storms have affected production, with last week's crude oil inventory decreasing by 3.5 million barrels and Cushing inventory decreasing by 743,000 barrels. On the demand side, the marginal improvement in supply - demand fundamentals provides support. But due to the expected US - Iran negotiation, geopolitical risk appetite has cooled, causing a sharp decline in domestic crude oil futures on Thursday night [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Oil prices are expected to fluctuate within a range; Medium-term: Bearish configuration [4] Core Viewpoints - Since the beginning of the year, the global crude oil shipment volume has dropped from over 44 million barrels to 43 million barrels per day. CPC, Kuwait, and Brazilian crude oil exports have decreased. However, Brazilian exports are expected to recover to over 2.5 million barrels per day, and CPC's exports are also recovering, reaching 1.1 million barrels per day [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - On February 11, the price of light crude oil futures for March delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 40 cents to $63.96 per barrel, a decrease of 0.62%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for April delivery fell 24 cents to $68.80 per barrel, a decrease of 0.35%. The main contract of SC crude oil rose 0.21% to 474 yuan per barrel [1] - On February 11, Trump administration officials discussed seizing more oil tankers transporting Iranian oil, but no action has been taken yet. If implemented, it could lead to Iranian retaliation and a sharp rise in oil prices [1] - On February 10, the Indian Coast Guard seized three oil tankers suspected of oil smuggling, indicating a tougher stance on the so - called shadow fleet [1] - On February 10, two Saudi Arabian companies and three American companies plan to form a consortium for oil and gas exploration and energy production in northeastern Syria [1] - On February 11, Venezuela shipped crude oil to Israel for the first time in years after President Maduro was arrested, indicating a change in the flow of Venezuelan crude oil [1] Investment Logic - Since the beginning of the year, the decline in global crude oil shipments is mainly due to the significant drop in CPC and Kuwait crude oil exports, and a decrease in Brazilian exports possibly related to recent oilfield maintenance. Brazilian exports are expected to recover, and CPC exports are also in the process of recovery [2][3] Strategy - Short - term: Oil prices will fluctuate within a range; Medium - term: Bearish configuration [4]