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菜百股份(605599):三季度业绩+23%,毛利率修复
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-10-29 12:43
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company reported a 33.4% year-on-year increase in revenue for the first nine months of 2025, reaching 20.47 billion yuan, with a net profit of 650 million yuan, up 16.7% year-on-year [7] - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.22 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.9%, and a net profit of 190 million yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [7] - The sales gross margin in Q3 was 9.2%, an increase of 0.48 percentage points year-on-year and 3.39 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [7] - The company is actively exploring new business models with a dual-line approach of "large stores + small stores," focusing on cultural consumption [7] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 27.18 billion yuan, 31.34 billion yuan, and 34.20 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding net profits of 860 million yuan, 910 million yuan, and 1.01 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 16.55 billion yuan in 2023, 20.23 billion yuan in 2024, 27.18 billion yuan in 2025, 31.34 billion yuan in 2026, and 34.20 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The net profit is projected to be 707 million yuan in 2023, 719 million yuan in 2024, 863 million yuan in 2025, 913 million yuan in 2026, and 1.01 billion yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.91 yuan in 2023, 0.92 yuan in 2024, 1.11 yuan in 2025, 1.17 yuan in 2026, and 1.30 yuan in 2027 [6][8] - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 16.4 in 2023, 12.3 in 2024, 12.9 in 2025, 12.2 in 2026, and 11.0 in 2027 [6][8] - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 18.7% in 2023, 18.1% in 2024, 20.2% in 2025, 20.4% in 2026, and 21.5% in 2027 [6][8]