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场景多、成本降,多重利好!氢能从示范走向规模化 “绿色石油”激活万亿市场
Yang Shi Wang· 2025-10-30 03:25
Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the promotion of quantum technology, biomanufacturing, hydrogen energy, nuclear fusion energy, and embodied intelligence as new economic growth points, with a particular focus on the large-scale application of hydrogen energy, which is expected to activate a trillion-yuan market as costs continue to decrease and application scenarios expand [1]. Hydrogen Energy Industry Development - The hydrogen energy industry is advancing rapidly with diverse applications and decreasing costs, moving from demonstration projects to large-scale implementation [1]. - A demonstration project in Guangdong Foshan converts municipal waste into carbon powder and subsequently into hydrogen gas, achieving an annual production capacity of approximately 6,500 tons at a cost of 10 yuan per kilogram, indicating strong potential for large-scale application [4][6]. - The first mobile zero-carbon hydrogen generation vehicle has been launched, capable of producing 80 cubic meters of hydrogen per hour, providing a sustainable alternative to diesel generators for emergency power supply [12]. Technological Innovations - The "hydrogen-electric coupling" project in Ningbo aims to convert hydrogen back into electricity during peak demand, enhancing the efficiency of energy use [14]. - The cost of hydrogen fuel cell systems has significantly decreased, from nearly 10,000 yuan per kilowatt to below 2,000 yuan, improving the economic viability of hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks [18]. Industrial Applications - The largest integrated green hydrogen and ammonia project in the world is set to launch in Jilin, with a total investment of 29.6 billion yuan, creating a complete industrial chain from renewable energy generation to green hydrogen production [24]. - By 2035, China's total installed capacity of wind and solar power is expected to reach 3.6 billion kilowatts, with green hydrogen and ammonia playing a crucial role in utilizing this renewable energy [26]. Market Outlook - The cost of electrolysis for hydrogen production has decreased by nearly 50% since 2020, with further reductions anticipated as flexible hydrogen production technologies are promoted [29]. - By around 2030, the price of green hydrogen is projected to reach approximately 10 yuan per kilogram, making it economically viable for industrial applications and positioning it as a "green oil" alternative [31].
奋进“十五五”续写新篇章︱ “十五五”氢能有望实现规模化应用 “绿氢”激活万亿市场
国家能源局· 2025-10-30 00:51
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant potential of hydrogen energy as a new economic growth point, driven by advancements in technology, cost reduction, and diverse application scenarios, particularly in waste management and transportation sectors [2][4][40]. Group 1: Hydrogen Energy Development - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests promoting hydrogen energy as a key economic growth area, with a focus on its large-scale application [2]. - The cost of green hydrogen is expected to decrease, with projections indicating a price of around 10 yuan per kilogram by 2030 [50]. - The hydrogen industry is anticipated to activate a trillion-yuan market as it transitions from demonstration projects to large-scale applications [4][40]. Group 2: Waste-to-Hydrogen Projects - A demonstration project in Foshan converts municipal waste into hydrogen through a process that includes carbon powder production and coal-to-hydrogen technology, achieving an annual capacity of approximately 6,500 tons at a cost of 10 yuan per kilogram [4][8]. - The project utilizes a low-oxygen environment to process waste, ensuring harmful metals are safely contained [6]. Group 3: Urban Applications - The first distributed energy project using fuel cells in a residential area in Foshan provides power to over 1,700 households through hydrogen produced from natural gas [10]. - A mobile zero-carbon hydrogen generation vehicle has been introduced, capable of producing 80 cubic meters of hydrogen per hour, offering a sustainable alternative to diesel generators [14][16]. Group 4: Transportation and Logistics - Hydrogen fuel cell systems are being integrated into heavy-duty trucks, with significant cost reductions in core components, making them more economically viable compared to diesel [28][34]. - A network of hydrogen refueling stations is being established in Chongqing, facilitating cross-regional hydrogen supply for heavy-duty trucks [22]. Group 5: Industrial Applications - A major green hydrogen ammonia project in Jilin is set to launch, with a total investment of 29.6 billion yuan, creating a complete industrial chain from renewable energy to hydrogen production [38]. - The cost of hydrogen production from electrolysis has decreased by nearly 50% since 2020, enhancing the economic feasibility of green hydrogen in various industries [48]. Group 6: Future Outlook - By 2035, China's total installed capacity for wind and solar power is expected to reach 3.6 billion kilowatts, with significant potential for green hydrogen production [46]. - The transition from small-scale demonstrations to commercial applications of green hydrogen and ammonia is seen as a critical phase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [46].