Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].