RU、NR 日报 【银河期货】天然橡胶及 20 号胶每日早盘观察（26-02-27） 天然橡胶及 20 号胶：轮胎小幅增产 【市场情况】 RU 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 17080 点，下跌-45 点或-0.26%。 截至前日 12 时，销地 WF 报收 17000-17100 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 17150- 17200 元/吨，泰国烟片报收 19500-19800 元/吨，产地标二报收 14600-14700 元/ 吨。 NR 20 号胶相关：NR 主力完成换月，05 合约报收 13865 点，下跌-45 点或- 0.32%；新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 200.2 点，下跌-0.6 点或-0.30%。截至前日 18 时，烟片胶船货报收 2440 美元/吨，泰标近港船货报收 2055-2080 美元/吨，泰 混近港船货报收 2055-2080 美元/吨，马标近港船货报收 2045-2070 美元/吨，人 民币混合胶现货报收 15870-15900 元/吨。 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力完成换月，05 合约报收 12760 点，下跌-40 点 或-1.31%。截至前日 1 ...

BR 日报 【银河期货】丁二烯橡胶每日早盘观察（26-02-24） 丁二烯橡胶：节前仓库仓单大幅累库 【市场情况】 BR 丁二烯橡胶相关：BR 主力 04 合约报收 12590 点，下跌-190 点或- 1.49%。截至前日 18 时，山东地区大庆石化顺丁报收 12500-12600 元/吨，山东民 营顺丁报收 12200-12300 元/吨，华东市场扬子石化顺丁报收 12600 元/吨，华南 地区茂名石化顺丁报收 12500-12700 元/吨。山东地区抚顺石化丁苯 1502 报收 12800-12900 元/吨。山东地区丁二烯报收 10600-10700 元/吨。 RU/NR 天然橡胶相关：RU 主力 05 合约报收 16315 点，下跌-135 点或- 0.82%。日胶主连报收 354.5 点，节中累计上涨+7.4 点或+2.1%。截至前日 12 时， 销地 WF 报收 16150-16200 元/吨，越南 3L 混合报收 16700 元/吨。NR 主力 04 合约报收 1380 点，下跌-190 点或-1.42%；新加坡 TF 主力 05 合约报收 193.8 点，节中累计上涨+2.0 点或+1.0% ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rubber futures in China initially rose due to better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data but later retreated as positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton. With the previous positive factors realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [5][14][59]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **1.1 Spot price slightly declined, and basis discount converged** - In the week of January 16, 2026, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis between the spot price of SCRWF and the futures price of the RU2605 contract was at a discount of 185 yuan/ton, and the degree of discount slightly converged [9]. - **1.2 Positive factors digested, and rubber prices rose first and then fell** - Benefiting from better - than - expected domestic auto production and sales data, domestic rubber futures rose initially. However, as the positive data was digested and the energy - chemical sector corrected, rubber prices gave back their gains. The RU2605 contract of Shanghai rubber futures reached a maximum of 16,480 yuan/ton and ended the week with a cumulative decline of 1.22% to 15,835 yuan/ton; the TS2603 contract of standard rubber futures reached 13,305 yuan/ton and dropped 1.58% to 12,745 yuan/ton; the NR2603 contract of synthetic rubber futures reached 12,470 yuan/ton and fell 2.07% to 11,815 yuan/ton [13][14]. 3.2 Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement in Q3 2025 - **2.1 Output of Southeast Asian rubber - producing countries increased slightly year - on - year, and consumption decreased slightly year - on - year** - From May to November, rubber - producing areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China and Southeast Asian countries are in the peak tapping season. In November 2025, the total rubber production of ANRPC member countries was 1.1677 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0057 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 0.0674 million tons (a decline of 5.46%). From January to November 2025, the total production was 10.3887 million tons, a slight increase of 0.0482 million tons (an increase of 0.47%) compared with the same period last year. In November 2025, the total rubber consumption of ANRPC member countries was 0.9116 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.0112 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 0.011 million tons (an increase of 1.22%). From January to November 2025, the total consumption was 9.9974 million tons, a slight decrease of 0.2243 million tons (a decline of 2.19%) compared with the same period last year. Due to normal tapping in Southeast Asian countries and weakening global demand, the rubber market supply - demand structure is weakening, and rubber prices may face pressure in the future [26][30]. - **2.2 China's rubber imports increased significantly in November 2025** - China's natural rubber import dependence is about 80%. In November 2025, China imported 790,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a year - on - year increase of 11%. From January to November 2025, the total import was 7.572 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.5% [33]. - **2.3 Growth rate of domestic tire production slowed down, and industry operating rate declined slightly** - In November 2025, the output of Chinese rubber tire casings was 101.828 million pieces, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative output was 1.103115 billion pieces, a slight year - on - year increase of 0.6%, and the growth rate slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year. As of January 16, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a week - on - week increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a week - on - week increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points [36]. - **2.4 China's auto production and sales increased significantly year - on - year in 2025** - In 2025, China's auto production and sales reached 34.531 million and 34.4 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and 9.4%. Passenger vehicle production and sales were 30.27 million and 30.103 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and 9.2%. Commercial vehicle production and sales were 4.261 million and 4.296 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12% and 10.9%. Auto exports exceeded 7 million vehicles, reaching 7.098 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 21.1%. In December 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese auto dealers was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The logistics prosperity index in December 2025 was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% and a year - on - year increase of about 13%. In 2025, the total sales volume of the heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, with 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [40][41]. - **2.5 Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) warehouse receipts increased significantly, and Qingdao Bonded Area inventory increased slightly** - As of the week of January 16, 2026, the SHFE rubber futures inventory increased significantly week - on - week, with registered warehouse receipts increasing by 3,900 tons to 108,390 tons compared with the week of January 9. As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons (a growth rate of 4.48%). The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons (a growth rate of 3.80%), and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [57]. 3.3 Conclusion - Currently, the natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan in China are in the non - tapping season, and the supply pressure of domestic whole latex has significantly decreased. However, Southeast Asia has not entered the low - production season, and supply pressure still exists. The domestic auto production and sales data in the downstream of the rubber market are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. However, the crude oil price has given back its geopolitical premium, and the correction of the energy - chemical sector has dragged down the high - level adjustment of rubber futures. As the previous positive factors are gradually realized, the rubber market is at a stage of divergence between bulls and bears, and it is expected that rubber futures will maintain a high - level consolidation trend in the future [59].

期待需求的利多 橡胶月报 2025/12/05 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 从业资格号： F0270766 交易咨询号： Z0003000 张正华（能源化工组） 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 需求端 03 利润和比价 06 供应端 月度评估及策略推荐 近期行情重点关注 期待需求（政策）利多期间胶价的表现 ◆ 11月中旬，橡胶仓单到期预期出库10-11万吨，交易所的橡胶库存和仓单将显著减少，库存偏低，容易引发多头关注。 ◆ 11月28日新闻，EUDR正式推迟。判断为需求利空。 ◆ 泰国橡胶出口10月同比增加明显，（雨季一般出口持平或者小增），超出市场的预期。判断为供应利空。 ◆ 20251205市场有降息降准的预期，利多需求预期。 ◆ 12月中旬泰国主产区有连续比较大的降雨。 ◆ 择机波段短多机会。 ◆ 12月仍然处于冬储等需求偏多的季节，没到供需边际走差的季节。 前期行情影响因素： 确认EUDR推迟1年，需求利空 ◆ 2025年9月23日消息，EUDR生效时间再度推迟。 ◆ 据艾科森环境技术消息，欧盟委员会希望再次推迟欧盟的反森林砍伐法， ...

合成橡胶产业日报 2025-12-03 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 10575 | -110 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 38986 | -6617 | | | 合成橡胶1-2价差(日,元/吨) 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 | 5 | 20 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 3350 | -40 | | 现货市场 | 东(日,元/吨) | 10500 | 100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):山 | 10500 | 200 100 | | | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,大庆石化):上 | 10500 | 东(日,元/吨) 100 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,茂名石化):广 | 10700 | | | | 海(日,元/吨) 基差:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) 布伦特原油(日,美元/桶) | -135 62.45 | -275 东(日,元/吨) -0.72 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Core Views of the Report - The overall situation of the oil market is one of oversupply and short - term geopolitical instability. Oil prices are expected to be weak with fluctuations [1]. - Silver has upward momentum due to weak US economic data and potential Fed rate cuts, but may face short - term correction pressure and is bullish in the medium term [1]. - Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand in the off - season [3]. - Manganese silicon prices are likely to remain low, with cost support but limited demand and difficulty in cost transmission [3]. - Coke market is in a situation of weak supply and demand in the off - season. The first round of price cuts is expected to be implemented, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. - The pig market has an oversupply situation. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see, and farmers can choose the right time for hedging [5]. - Palm oil market trends are unclear in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [5]. - Rapeseed meal prices will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term, and changes in China - Canada trade policies should be focused on in the future [6]. - PX prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the medium term, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - Natural rubber market will operate with fluctuations, affected by factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [7]. - Short - term treasury bond market has entered a volatile range, and the stock - bond seesaw and capital market trends should be monitored [8]. - Methanol 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [8]. - Soda ash 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term short positions on rebounds [9]. - Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term, and the differentiation between gold and silver should be noted [9]. - Ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions [10]. Summaries According to Different Product Categories Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and US threats to close Venezuelan airspace, along with OPEC+ keeping production unchanged in Q1 2026, led to a more than 1% increase in overnight oil prices. Supply is in excess, and short - term geopolitical instability exists. Pay attention to US - Russia negotiations [1]. - **PX**: Domestic and Asian PX device loads have declined. Although some factories use MX to supplement PX production, the supply remains at a relatively high level. There are potential maintenance and load - reduction plans for PX devices at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to contract [6]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand has increased slightly, port inventory has decreased, and overall downstream demand is stable. The 01 contract is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term [8]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of heavy - quality soda ash is relatively stable. Production has decreased, and inventory has declined. The float glass market has slightly decreased in production, and the soda ash market is expected to operate with fluctuations [9]. Metals - **Silver**: Weak US economic data may strengthen the expectation of Fed rate cuts. Silver has upward momentum but may face short - term correction pressure [1]. - **Thread Steel**: The steel market has no obvious supply - demand contradiction, inventory is decreasing, and manufacturers are willing to support prices. Steel prices are expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term, but the upside is limited [3]. - **Manganese Silicon**: The start - up rate of manganese silicon enterprises has decreased. The cost of imported manganese ore has increased, but manufacturers' profits are poor. The market supply - demand is loose, and prices are likely to remain low [3]. - **Coke**: Coke production and inventory of steel mills have increased. Supply has increased, while demand has weakened in the off - season. The first round of price cuts has started, but multiple consecutive cuts are less likely [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: The price of pork has declined. The supply is in excess, and the pickling season has limited impact. It is recommended to take short - term profit - taking and wait and see [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The production of palm oil in Malaysia has decreased slightly. Market expectations of Indonesia reducing export taxes may affect prices, and the short - term trend is unclear [5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased slightly. The arrival of Australian rapeseed and customs clearance efficiency affect supply expectations, and prices will maintain a volatile pattern [6]. Others - **Short - term Treasury Bonds**: Short - term funds show differentiation. The bond market is affected by economic fundamentals and year - end policies, and has entered a volatile range [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: The raw material price is strong, but downstream demand is weak. The inventory in bonded areas has increased, and the market is expected to operate with fluctuations [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The overall supply of ethylene glycol has decreased slightly, port inventory has increased, downstream polyester demand is stable, and terminal demand is weak. The 01 contract is expected to operate with fluctuations [10]. - **Gold**: Potential changes in the Fed's top leadership may affect the precious metal market. Gold is expected to be strong with fluctuations in the short term and may fluctuate at high levels in the medium term [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released as of October 9, 2025. Subsequently, tracking macro - dynamics and weather conditions will be crucial price drivers [12]. - The rubber price is currently low, offering a good risk - reward ratio for long positions. If there are positive events, the rubber price is likely to rebound [12]. - The US tariff negative news on October 13, 2025, was beyond expectations and requires further observation [12]. - Currently, the driving factors for rubber price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate [12]. - The postponement of EUDR implementation is a short - term negative for demand, but the new proposal in October 2025 is a marginal positive with limited upside potential [13]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is considered a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [14]. - The market's long - side logic is mainly based on the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The short - side's main reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Drivers and Outlook**: The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released. The rubber price is low, and if there are positive events, it may rebound. Currently, the driving factors for price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate [12]. - **Policy Impact**: The US tariff news on October 13, 2025, was unexpected. The EUDR implementation was postponed again, which is a short - term negative for demand. The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [12][13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the demand for semi - steel tires for export to Europe has weakened. Thailand is still in the rainy season, and supply is easily affected. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a small increase and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 tons [16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rubber price is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions on dips. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 (shorts can shift to RU2609) for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Seasonal Patterns**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber, and the ratio of rubber to crude oil have shown certain trends. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31][37][40]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratios - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, and stock indices are generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern [48][51][55]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Cost Estimates**: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, related to the rubber price [61]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Tire Factory Operation**: The operating rates of tire factories show no significant special values. The demand for trucks and commercial vehicles is gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][71][75]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Supply Status**: The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern. The production and export data of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China are presented in detail, along with year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [81][85][97]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, new production capacity for butadiene is expected to increase by 113 tons, with a 16% increase in total capacity compared to 2024. This is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the National Day holiday, domestic rubber futures were affected by a weak supply - demand structure and weakening macro - sentiment, leading to a downward trend in rubber prices. During the holiday, the US federal government shutdown increased global financial market risk aversion, and although Typhoon "Medom" might bring a production - cut expectation, the industry's positive outlook could not counter the macro - bearish sentiment. After the holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: In the week of September 30, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,300 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract was at a discount of 730 yuan/ton, with the degree of discount slightly narrowing [10]. - **Futures price**: In the two trading days before the holiday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 dropped 2.84% to 15,030 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures contract 2512 fell 2.81% to 12,100 yuan/ton; and the synthetic rubber futures contract 2512 declined 2.63% to 11,110 yuan/ton [6][15]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian producers**: In August 2025, ANRPC member countries produced 107.87 million tons of rubber, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 685.36 million tons, a 0.96% increase from the same period last year. Consumption in August was 89.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 million tons (4.68% decline). From January to August, total consumption was 717.51 million tons, a 3.60% decrease from the same period last year. In export, Thailand and Indonesia had significant year - on - year increases in the January - August period, while Malaysia and Vietnam had slight decreases [25][29]. - **China's imports**: In August 2025, China imported 66.4 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 million tons, a 19.03% increase from the same period last year [33]. - **Domestic tire market**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 9.1% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year increase. Semi - steel tire production was about 58.06 million pieces, and full - steel tire production was about 13.03 million pieces. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports were 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a 0.10 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a 0.03 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [36][37]. - **Domestic auto market**: In August 2025, China's auto production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, a 13% and 16.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. In the new - energy vehicle sector, production and sales in August were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, a 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, the auto dealer inventory warning index was 54.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry index in September was 56.1%, a record high. In August, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 35% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative sales in the first 8 months were 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [40][41]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory decreased by 3,613 tons week - on - week, while the registered warehouse receipts increased by 390 tons. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory remained flat, and the general - trade inventory decreased by 1.18% [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, with an obvious short - term moving - average trend. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in production areas, raw materials are expected to increase, but raw material prices may decline, and the cost - side support will weaken. Demand will drop during the holiday, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - For butadiene rubber, the upstream of cis - butadiene rubber still has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after the raw material replenishment by downstream. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Thailand glue is 54.80 Thai baht/kg, cup - lumps is 51.05 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue is 14,600 yuan/ton, Hainan glue is 14,500 yuan/ton. RU basis is - 820 yuan/ton, NR basis is 836 yuan/ton, BR basis is - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed is 14,850 yuan/ton, Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,860 US dollars/ton, Indonesian 20 standard rubber is 1,750 US dollars/ton, and Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price is 11,700 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: The inbound rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 8.50%, the general trade inbound rate is 9.62%, and the bonded warehouse inbound rate is 2.47%. The high - cis butadiene rubber operating rate is 66.41%, and the output is 26,665 tons [1] - **Production Profit**: The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 221.00 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 2,622.00 yuan/ton, cis - butadiene rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, and carbon - four extraction butadiene is 1,861.10 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires is 66.39%, semi - steel tires is 72.64%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province is 39.16 days, and semi - steel tires is 46.15 days [2] - **Inventory**: The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons, the social inventory is 1,112,557 tons, the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 149,420 tons, and the NR futures inventory is 42,942 tons. The upstream butadiene port inventory is 27,750 tons, the cis - butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory is 5,700 tons [2] Market Analysis - **Natural Rubber**: With less rainfall in production areas, raw materials will increase, but prices may fall. During the holiday, demand will decline, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The upstream of cis - butadiene rubber has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after raw material replenishment. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Strategy - RU and NR are neutral. The tight spot price pattern remains, but inventory de - stocking may slow. The valuation is low, and the downside space is limited after the new state reserve release news [4] - BR is neutral. Supply - side support exists due to device maintenance. Demand will decline during the holiday. High inventory may lead to a slight decline following natural rubber [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].