1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released as of October 9, 2025. Subsequently, tracking macro - dynamics and weather conditions will be crucial price drivers [12]. - The rubber price is currently low, offering a good risk - reward ratio for long positions. If there are positive events, the rubber price is likely to rebound [12]. - The US tariff negative news on October 13, 2025, was beyond expectations and requires further observation [12]. - Currently, the driving factors for rubber price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate and consolidate [12]. - The postponement of EUDR implementation is a short - term negative for demand, but the new proposal in October 2025 is a marginal positive with limited upside potential [13]. - The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is considered a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [14]. - The market's long - side logic is mainly based on the expected supply disruptions in Thailand due to the rainy season, with more upward movements than downward movements in the second half of the year. The short - side's main reasons are the weak actual demand and the expected decline in demand due to tariff policies [18]. - The new production capacity of butadiene is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits. However, the maintenance season in the fourth quarter creates upward price elasticity [23]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Price Drivers and Outlook**: The overall negative factors in the rubber market have been fully released. The rubber price is low, and if there are positive events, it may rebound. Currently, the driving factors for price increases are diminishing, and the price may fluctuate [12]. - **Policy Impact**: The US tariff news on October 13, 2025, was unexpected. The EUDR implementation was postponed again, which is a short - term negative for demand. The 62,000 - ton rubber release in September 2025 is a short - term negative and a medium - term positive [12][13][14]. - **Supply and Demand Situation**: The demand for all - steel tires is normal, while the demand for semi - steel tires for export to Europe has weakened. Thailand is still in the rainy season, and supply is easily affected. There are differences in medium - term supply expectations, with some expecting a small increase and others expecting an increase of 20 - 30 tons [16][18]. - **Trading Strategy**: The rubber price is bullish in the medium term. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see or take short - term long positions on dips. Pay attention to the strategy of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2511 (shorts can shift to RU2609) for potential band - trading opportunities [18]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Seasonal Patterns**: Rubber maintains its seasonal pattern, with prices more likely to fall in the first half of the year. The ratio of Shanghai rubber to Japanese rubber, and the ratio of rubber to crude oil have shown certain trends. The overseas demand for rubber is expected to weaken marginally, while Chinese demand remains stable [31][37][40]. 3.3 Profit and Price Ratios - **Ratio Analysis**: The ratios of rubber to copper, Brent crude oil, black commodities, and stock indices are generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern [48][51][55]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Cost Estimates**: The cost of cup rubber in Thailand is generally considered to be between 30 - 35 Thai baht. The cost of Hainan full - latex in China is around 13,500 yuan, and the cost of Yunnan full - latex is between 12,500 - 13,000 yuan. Rubber maintenance costs are dynamic, related to the rubber price [61]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Tire Factory Operation**: The operating rates of tire factories show no significant special values. The demand for trucks and commercial vehicles is gradually improving, which will affect the demand for supporting tires. The export of truck tires is booming but is expected to decline slightly in the future [67][71][75]. 3.6 Supply Side - **Supply Status**: The supply of rubber in major producing countries is generally normal, with no significant special values or points of concern. The production and export data of Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, and China are presented in detail, along with year - on - year and month - on - month comparisons [81][85][97]. - **New Production Capacity**: In 2025, new production capacity for butadiene is expected to increase by 113 tons, with a 16% increase in total capacity compared to 2024. This is expected to increase supply and reduce processing profits [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Before the National Day holiday, domestic rubber futures were affected by a weak supply - demand structure and weakening macro - sentiment, leading to a downward trend in rubber prices. During the holiday, the US federal government shutdown increased global financial market risk aversion, and although Typhoon "Medom" might bring a production - cut expectation, the industry's positive outlook could not counter the macro - bearish sentiment. After the holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, and it is expected to maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [6][55]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Spot price and basis**: In the week of September 30, 2025, the spot price of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) oscillated around 14,300 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. The basis between the spot and the Shanghai rubber 2601 contract was at a discount of 730 yuan/ton, with the degree of discount slightly narrowing [10]. - **Futures price**: In the two trading days before the holiday, the Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 dropped 2.84% to 15,030 yuan/ton; the standard rubber futures contract 2512 fell 2.81% to 12,100 yuan/ton; and the synthetic rubber futures contract 2512 declined 2.63% to 11,110 yuan/ton [6][15]. 3.2 2025 Third - Quarter Global Rubber Market Supply - Demand Improvement - **Southeast Asian producers**: In August 2025, ANRPC member countries produced 107.87 million tons of rubber, a month - on - month increase of 1.05 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 2.02 million tons (1.84% decline). From January to August 2025, the total production was 685.36 million tons, a 0.96% increase from the same period last year. Consumption in August was 89.99 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.71 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 4.42 million tons (4.68% decline). From January to August, total consumption was 717.51 million tons, a 3.60% decrease from the same period last year. In export, Thailand and Indonesia had significant year - on - year increases in the January - August period, while Malaysia and Vietnam had slight decreases [25][29]. - **China's imports**: In August 2025, China imported 66.4 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber, a 7.8% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total import was 537.3 million tons, a 19.03% increase from the same period last year [33]. - **Domestic tire market**: In August 2025, China's rubber tire outer - tire production was 102.954 million pieces, a 9.1% month - on - month and 1.5% year - on - year increase. Semi - steel tire production was about 58.06 million pieces, and full - steel tire production was about 13.03 million pieces. Tire exports were strong, with semi - steel tire exports reaching 325,900 tons, a record high. From January to August, China's rubber tire exports were 6.5 million tons, a 5.1% year - on - year increase. As of September 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.64%, a 0.10 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 66.39%, a 0.03 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [36][37]. - **Domestic auto market**: In August 2025, China's auto production and sales were 2.815 million and 2.857 million vehicles respectively, a 13% and 16.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative production and sales were 21.051 million and 21.128 million vehicles, a 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year increase. In the new - energy vehicle sector, production and sales in August were 1.391 million and 1.395 million vehicles respectively, a 27.4% and 26.8% year - on - year increase. In September 2025, the auto dealer inventory warning index was 54.5%, up 0.5 percentage points year - on - year and down 2.5 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry index in September was 56.1%, a record high. In August, the heavy - truck market sold about 84,000 vehicles, a 35% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative sales in the first 8 months were 710,000 vehicles, a 13% year - on - year increase [40][41]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of September 30, 2025, the Shanghai rubber futures inventory decreased by 3,613 tons week - on - week, while the registered warehouse receipts increased by 390 tons. As of September 28, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao (bonded and general trade) was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. The bonded - area inventory remained flat, and the general - trade inventory decreased by 1.18% [53]. 3.3 Conclusion - After the National Day holiday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2601 continued its weak trend, with an obvious short - term moving - average trend. It is expected that the contract will maintain a volatile and weak trend in the future [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral. BR is also rated neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, with less rainfall in production areas, raw materials are expected to increase, but raw material prices may decline, and the cost - side support will weaken. Demand will drop during the holiday, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - For butadiene rubber, the upstream of cis - butadiene rubber still has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after the raw material replenishment by downstream. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Raw Materials and Spreads**: Thailand glue is 54.80 Thai baht/kg, cup - lumps is 51.05 Thai baht/kg, Yunnan glue is 14,600 yuan/ton, Hainan glue is 14,500 yuan/ton. RU basis is - 820 yuan/ton, NR basis is 836 yuan/ton, BR basis is - 80 yuan/ton [1] - **Spot**: Yunnan - produced whole latex in Shanghai market is 14,650 yuan/ton, Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed is 14,850 yuan/ton, Thai 20 standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 1,860 US dollars/ton, Indonesian 20 standard rubber is 1,750 US dollars/ton, and Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price is 11,700 yuan/ton [1] - **Supply**: The inbound rate of natural rubber at Qingdao Port is 8.50%, the general trade inbound rate is 9.62%, and the bonded warehouse inbound rate is 2.47%. The high - cis butadiene rubber operating rate is 66.41%, and the output is 26,665 tons [1] - **Production Profit**: The production profit of Thai STR20 is - 221.00 yuan/ton, Thai RSS3 is 2,622.00 yuan/ton, cis - butadiene rubber is - 225 yuan/ton, and carbon - four extraction butadiene is 1,861.10 yuan/ton [2] - **Demand**: The operating rate of all - steel tires is 66.39%, semi - steel tires is 72.64%. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong Province is 39.16 days, and semi - steel tires is 46.15 days [2] - **Inventory**: The natural rubber inventory at Qingdao Port is 461,188 tons, the social inventory is 1,112,557 tons, the RU inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 149,420 tons, and the NR futures inventory is 42,942 tons. The upstream butadiene port inventory is 27,750 tons, the cis - butadiene rubber production enterprise inventory is 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory is 5,700 tons [2] Market Analysis - **Natural Rubber**: With less rainfall in production areas, raw materials will increase, but prices may fall. During the holiday, demand will decline, and the supply - demand will turn loose, with inventory de - stocking slowing or re - accumulating [3] - **Butadiene Rubber**: The upstream of cis - butadiene rubber has device maintenance in October. The supply is abundant, and the demand will be stable after raw material replenishment. It will show a pattern of both supply and demand booming after the holiday [3] Strategy - RU and NR are neutral. The tight spot price pattern remains, but inventory de - stocking may slow. The valuation is low, and the downside space is limited after the new state reserve release news [4] - BR is neutral. Supply - side support exists due to device maintenance. Demand will decline during the holiday. High inventory may lead to a slight decline following natural rubber [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices, and the production in August reached a high level for the year. However, the pressure on production enterprises to sell goods has increased significantly under the game of rising mainstream supply prices of butadiene and cis - butadiene. The inventory of production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. This week, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. [2] - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' devices operated stably last week, but individual enterprises' overhauls dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' devices also ran stably, with most continuing the previous production - control state, and individual enterprises' overhauls and production reduction affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have overhaul plans at the beginning of this month, which may still drag down the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,670 - 12,200 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 31,283, a decrease of 1,887. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions had different changes. The basis of synthetic rubber was 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at 68.15 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.03 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was at 64.69 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.68 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 596.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.57%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 12.92 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.17 million tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.77%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, a decrease of 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. [2] - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the rubber main - producing areas enter the peak production season, and abnormal weather can intensify rubber price fluctuations. The import volume growth of rubber is limited due to slightly lower dry content and weather disturbances. [106] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period provides some demand support. After the parade, the tire manufacturers in Shandong may see a rebound in production, but high finished - product inventories limit the recovery elasticity. Tire exports may have a small increase at the end of the third quarter, but semi - steel tire exports may slow down. [106] - The social inventory of natural rubber is neutral, with the difference between dark and light - colored rubber inventories expanding. [106] - Overall, supply may be affected by unexpected weather, demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and inventory is neutral. Rubber prices are expected to have a bottom - support and high price elasticity. [106] - For butadiene rubber, the supply pressure eases, there are many maintenance plans in September - October, and demand has positive support. Short - term butadiene rubber prices are expected to remain strong. [106] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - Futures prices of rubber main contracts showed increases. For example, on August 28, 2025, the RU main contract price was 15,945 yuan/ton, up 1,385 yuan from July 31, 2025. [5] - The basis of rubber main contracts changed. The RU main contract basis was - 945 yuan/ton on August 28, 2025, down 935 yuan from July 31, 2025. [7] - The spread between RU index and NR index gradually widened. On August 28, 2025, the spread was 3,017 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 379 yuan. [12] - The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber was at a high level, enhancing the substitution of synthetic rubber. [18] 3.2 Supply - In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons. [25] - In China, natural rubber imports decreased year - on - year, while mixed rubber imports continued to rise year - on - year. [42] - The supply pressure of butadiene decreased in September. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly, and there were many new butadiene device projects in 2025 - 2028. [43][48] - Butadiene rubber production was at a high level, and there were maintenance plans for butadiene rubber devices in September - October. [49][53] 3.3 Demand - In 2025, global natural rubber consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. In China, tire exports increased in July 2025, and automobile production and sales continued to grow. [60][67] - The average operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased slightly in August. The inventory turnover days of all - steel tires decreased slightly, while those of semi - steel tires increased slightly. [61][65] 3.4 Inventory - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased compared with July 27, 2025. [74] - As of August 29, 2025, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber were 178,640 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber were 45,662 tons. [78] - As of August 24, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.27 million tons, including 797,000 tons of dark - colored rubber and 473,000 tons of light - colored rubber. [82] - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons. [85] 3.5 Position - The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations. The total positions of NR and BR changed, with the NR position increasing and the BR position increasing significantly from July 31 to August 28, 2025. [87][89] 3.6 Other (Options) - The report presented the historical volatility and historical volatility cone of natural rubber and butadiene rubber options, as well as the put - call ratios of option trading volume and position. [92][97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain ends. Current supply pressure is small, but domestic supply is expected to increase at the end of August. Tire开工率 is divided, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase next week. Tire开工率 is divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire开工率 has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,530 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import and Export - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to July was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] Sales - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Production and Sales - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery driven by factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old commercial vehicles, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] US Tire Imports - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 1，320,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 925 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,145 yuan/ton (-80), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,098 yuan/ton (+124.98), the NR basis was 288 yuan/ton (+62). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton (-120), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,795 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (-100), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,230 yuan/ton (-120) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.60 Thai baht/kg (-1.25), the price of Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.35 Thai baht/kg (-0.45), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.45) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+2.56%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (-0.60%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (-3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 265 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (-150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,201 yuan/ton (-203) [5] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (-250) [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 22 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi, with Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610 and Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The resistance to raising prices of raw material butadiene has emerged, weakening the cost - side support for butadiene rubber. With the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, the supply is expected to increase. Last week, driven by the macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decline in the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in the inventory of trading enterprises. After the restart of some devices this week, the domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream buyers continue to bargain, which may drive up the inventory of production enterprises. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in orders in the middle and late stages, which is expected to have a small positive impact on the overall operation rate. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 49,351, with a week - on - week increase of 34,358. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 2,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 69.21 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 572.88 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,050 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 67.2 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 375 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,700 tons, with no week - on - week change; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the operation rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the operation rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.85 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 17, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 230,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.59%. As of July 17, the production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative feedback on rubber demand may gradually emerge, and rubber prices will fluctuate and bottom out. In June, the rubber fundamentals will remain weak, with the expectation of strong supply and weak demand deepening. After the rubber price breaks through the support level, it may continue to fall to the previous low [2][104]. - For butadiene rubber, the cost of butadiene shows an oscillating pattern. The production profit of cis - butadiene rubber may continue to be in a loss state. The supply side will change little in June, but the demand from downstream and terminal automotive sectors is significantly weakening, and the impetus from exports is insufficient, leading to a decline in the price of butadiene rubber [104]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price - **Futures prices**: From April 30 to May 30, 2025, the RU, NR, and BR futures prices changed by -1150 yuan/ton, -420 yuan/ton, and +65 yuan/ton respectively [5]. - **Basis**: The RU, NR, and BR basis on May 30, 2025, were -55 yuan/ton, 134 yuan/ton, and 555 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of +100 yuan/ton, +32 yuan/ton, and -65 yuan/ton compared to April 30 [7]. - **Backwardation structure**: The rubber month - spread BACK structure deepened [9]. - **Price spreads**: The RU - NR spread on May 30, 2025, was 1833 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 559 yuan/ton and a year - on - year decrease of 536 yuan/ton [12]. - **Substitution relationship**: The price spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber narrowed, weakening the substitution effect of synthetic rubber [17]. - **Processing profit**: The processing profit of Thai standard rubber on May 28, 2025, was -102.48 dollars/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.08 dollars/ton and a year - on - year increase of 27.96 dollars/ton [19]. 3.2 Supply - **Domestic and foreign production areas**: In 2025, the phenological conditions in the global main production areas of natural rubber are good, and the tapping progress in domestic and foreign production areas is smooth. By June, the tapping in large - scale production areas such as Thailand will be in full swing, and the raw materials will increase significantly [23][104]. - **Production volume**: ANRPC predicted that the global natural rubber production in April 2025 would decrease by 1.4% to 767,000 tons, and the annual production would increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [26]. - **Export volume**: The cumulative year - on - year export volume of major producing countries increased. For example, Thailand's total export volume of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first four months increased by 13.5% year - on - year, and the export volume to China increased by 38% year - on - year [37]. - **Import volume**: China's imports of natural and mixed rubber continued to rise year - on - year and month - on - month. In April 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 523,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.6% [42]. - **Synthetic rubber supply**: The capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.3% on May 30, 2025. There were few restarting devices for butadiene rubber in June [45][51][52]. 3.3 Demand - **Domestic demand**: The domestic demand for natural rubber was stable with a slight increase. However, the downstream tire industry faced high inventory and weakening digestion ability, and the sales pressure of terminal automobile enterprises increased [56][104]. - **Export demand**: From January to April 2025, China's rubber tire exports increased year - on - year, but the export may weaken in the second half of the year [67]. - **Automobile industry**: The production and sales of automobiles continued to grow, but the demand for passenger cars and commercial vehicles was significantly differentiated [68][70]. 3.4 Inventory - **Exchange inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 198,720 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,050 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 211,684 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,073 tons. The 20 - rubber warehouse receipt was 17,641 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 53,524 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 27,517 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 52,821 tons [76]. - **Social inventory**: As of May 25, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.308 million tons, the social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 790,000 tons, and the social inventory of light - colored rubber was 518,000 tons [78]. 3.5 Position - **RU position**: The total position of the RU main contract rebounded. As of May 30, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 233,478 lots, a week - on - week increase of 74,078 lots [84][87]. - **NR and BR positions**: The NR position was 38,816 lots on May 30, 2025, a week - on - week increase of 12,612 lots; the BR position was 42,809 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1,690 lots [87]. 3.6 Options - **Natural rubber options**: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [90][92]. - **Butadiene rubber options**: Information on historical volatility, historical volatility cone, and put - call ratios of trading volume and open interest is provided [98][100].

Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].