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化工日报:天然橡胶社会库存环比小幅回升-20250821
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-08-21 02:53
化工日报 | 2025-08-21 天然橡胶社会库存环比小幅回升 市场要闻与数据 期货方面,昨日收盘RU主力合约15675元/吨,较前一日变动-200元/吨;NR主力合约12525元/吨,较前一日变动-165 元/吨;BR主力合约11715元/吨,较前一日变动-125元/吨。 现货方面,云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14750元/吨,较前一日变动-150元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14530元/吨,较前一 日变动-120元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1795美元/吨,较前一日变动-15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1745 美元/吨,较前一日变动-20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11900元/吨,较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11500元/吨,较前一日变动-250元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年7月中国天然橡胶(含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶)进口量47.48万吨,环比增加 2.47%,同比减少1.91%,2025年1-7月累计进口数量360.05万吨,累计同比增加21.82%。 2025年前7个月,科特迪瓦橡胶出口量共计908,487吨,较2024年同期的7 ...
合成橡胶产业日报-20250722
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-07-22 09:12
合成橡胶产业日报 2025-07-22 何保证,据此投资,责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议,客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有,未经书面许可,任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院,且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 在11700-12400区间波动。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料,瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠,但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 12100 | 105 主力合约持仓量:合成橡胶(日,元/吨) | 49351 | 34358 | | | 合成橡胶8-9价差(日,元/吨) | 15 | -10 仓单数量:丁二烯橡胶:仓库:总计(日,吨) | 2400 | 300 | | 现货市场 | 主流价:顺丁橡胶(BR9000,齐鲁石化):山 东(日 ...
2025年6月橡胶策略报告-20250603
Guang Da Qi Huo· 2025-06-03 07:21
1 光期研究 2 0 2 5年6月橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶:需求负反馈或逐步显现,胶价震荡探底 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格:期货盘面偏弱震荡 | | | | 2、供应:天胶国内外开割季 | | | | 3、需求:轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存:天然橡胶库存累库趋缓 | | | | 5、持仓:NR持仓高于同期,RU持仓恢复中 | | | p 3 1.1 价格:RU盘面月跌幅7.9%,NR盘面月跌幅3.42%,BR盘面月涨幅0.59% p 4 1.2 价格:橡胶主力合约基差 | 单位 :元/吨 | 基 差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RU主力基差 NR主力基差 | | BR主力基差 | | 2025/5/30 | -55 | 134 | 555 | | 2025/4/30 | -155 | 101 | 620 | | 涨跌值 | 100 | 32 ...
中航期货橡胶周度报告-20250516
Zhong Hang Qi Huo· 2025-05-16 14:23
Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].
能源化工天然橡胶周度报告-20250511
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-11 08:02
国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0002332 日期:2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【海关总署:2025年4月中国进口橡胶同比增31%至68.5万吨】据中国海关总署5月9日公布的数据显示,2025年4月中国进口天然及合成橡胶(含胶乳)合计 68.5万吨,较2024年同期的52.3万吨增加31%。2025年1-4月中国进口天然及合成橡胶(含胶乳)共计286.9万吨,较2024年同期的232.9万吨增加23.2%。 2.【2025年一季度欧洲替换胎市场销量增2.5%】5月8日,欧洲轮胎和橡胶制造商协会(ETRMA)发布市场数据显示,2025年一季度欧洲替换 ...