4 1 市场回顾 .....................................................................4 1.1 现货价格振荡回升，基差走阔 ............................................... 4 1.2 期价上涨，月差转为升水 ................................................... 4 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 以勤勉的职业态度，独立、客 观地出具本报告。本报告清晰 准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或 间接接收到任何形式的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 正文目录 2025 年 10 月 9 日 橡胶周报 多空因素纷扰 橡胶偏弱运行 核心观点 2.4 上期所库存回升，青岛保税区库存增加 ....................................... 7 宝城期货金融研究所 姓名：陈栋 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0251793 投资咨询证号：Z00 ...

化工周报 | 2025-09-28 主产区降雨减缓，原料将回升 市场分析 天然橡胶：下周海内外产区的降雨将逐步减少，预计原料呈现环比回升走势，原料价格有回落预期，天然橡胶成 本端支撑减缓。下周国内处于长假，下游轮胎厂将进入短期检修的状态，且节前工厂的原料集中补库已经告一段 落，需求环比下降。总体供需呈现逐步转向宽松格局，预计库存去化将逐步放缓甚至重新累积。 丁二烯橡胶：顺丁橡胶上游到10月份仍有装置检修，开工率或呈现先升后回落的走势，近两周产量变化有限。但 顺丁橡胶今年总体开工率水平同比仍在高位，供应充裕格局未改。需求端随着下游原料补库结束后，或呈现稳定 状态。临近国庆假期，下游轮胎厂将有短期停产，节后重新恢复。预计后期下游延续旺季特征，顺丁橡胶供需呈 现两旺格局。 策略 市场要闻与重要数据 原料与价差：泰国胶水54.80泰铢/公斤（+0.00），泰国杯胶51.05泰铢/公斤（+0.00），云南胶水14600元/吨（-200）， 海南胶水14500元/吨（+0），RU基差-820元/吨（+0），NR基差836元/吨（-73），BR基差-80元/吨（+15）。 现货方面：云南产全乳胶上海市场价格14650元/吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic production of synthetic rubber has increased due to the restart of most previously overhauled cis - butadiene rubber devices, and the production in August reached a high level for the year. However, the pressure on production enterprises to sell goods has increased significantly under the game of rising mainstream supply prices of butadiene and cis - butadiene. The inventory of production enterprises increased last week, and the inventory of trading enterprises decreased slightly. This week, the supply is expected to increase slightly, and the inventory of both production and trading enterprises is expected to rise slightly. [2] - In terms of demand, most semi - steel tire enterprises' devices operated stably last week, but individual enterprises' overhauls dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate. All - steel tire enterprises' devices also ran stably, with most continuing the previous production - control state, and individual enterprises' overhauls and production reduction affected the overall capacity utilization rate. Some enterprises have overhaul plans at the beginning of this month, which may still drag down the short - term capacity utilization rate. The br2510 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,670 - 12,200 in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 11,820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 31,283, a decrease of 1,887. The 10 - 11 spread of synthetic rubber was 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber was 2,770 tons, an increase of 100 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from different manufacturers in different regions had different changes. The basis of synthetic rubber was 130 yuan/ton, an increase of 75 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil was at 68.15 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.03 US dollars/barrel; WTI crude oil was at 64.69 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.68 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 596.25 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.13 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 840 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,095 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,575 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.11 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons/week; the capacity utilization rate was 67.91%, a decrease of 0.24 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 49.57%, an increase of 0.44 percentage points. The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 12.92 million tons, an increase of 0.67 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate was 75.85%, an increase of 6.7 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 478 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.17 million tons, an increase of 0.11 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 25,100 tons, an increase of 1,900 tons; the trader's inventory was 6,620 tons, a decrease of 790 tons. [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 72.77%, a decrease of 0.36 percentage points; the operating rate of all - steel tires was 63.84%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 12.75 million pieces, an increase of 130,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 56.97 million pieces, an increase of 1.74 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 39.22 days, a decrease of 0.54 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 46.14 days, a decrease of 0.91 days. [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of August 28, the inventory of Chinese high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 3.17 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. [2] - As of August 28, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.73 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 64.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.10 percentage points. [2] - In August 2025, China's cis - butadiene rubber output was 13.57 million tons, an increase of 0.65 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 5.02% and a year - on - year increase of 30.73%. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In September, the rubber main - producing areas enter the peak production season, and abnormal weather can intensify rubber price fluctuations. The import volume growth of rubber is limited due to slightly lower dry content and weather disturbances. [106] - The "Golden September and Silver October" period provides some demand support. After the parade, the tire manufacturers in Shandong may see a rebound in production, but high finished - product inventories limit the recovery elasticity. Tire exports may have a small increase at the end of the third quarter, but semi - steel tire exports may slow down. [106] - The social inventory of natural rubber is neutral, with the difference between dark and light - colored rubber inventories expanding. [106] - Overall, supply may be affected by unexpected weather, demand is stable domestically and weak externally, and inventory is neutral. Rubber prices are expected to have a bottom - support and high price elasticity. [106] - For butadiene rubber, the supply pressure eases, there are many maintenance plans in September - October, and demand has positive support. Short - term butadiene rubber prices are expected to remain strong. [106] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Price - Futures prices of rubber main contracts showed increases. For example, on August 28, 2025, the RU main contract price was 15,945 yuan/ton, up 1,385 yuan from July 31, 2025. [5] - The basis of rubber main contracts changed. The RU main contract basis was - 945 yuan/ton on August 28, 2025, down 935 yuan from July 31, 2025. [7] - The spread between RU index and NR index gradually widened. On August 28, 2025, the spread was 3,017 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 379 yuan. [12] - The spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber was at a high level, enhancing the substitution of synthetic rubber. [18] 3.2 Supply - In June 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption was expected to increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production was expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons. [25] - In China, natural rubber imports decreased year - on - year, while mixed rubber imports continued to rise year - on - year. [42] - The supply pressure of butadiene decreased in September. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene decreased slightly, and there were many new butadiene device projects in 2025 - 2028. [43][48] - Butadiene rubber production was at a high level, and there were maintenance plans for butadiene rubber devices in September - October. [49][53] 3.3 Demand - In 2025, global natural rubber consumption was expected to increase by 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. In China, tire exports increased in July 2025, and automobile production and sales continued to grow. [60][67] - The average operating rates of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires decreased slightly in August. The inventory turnover days of all - steel tires decreased slightly, while those of semi - steel tires increased slightly. [61][65] 3.4 Inventory - As of August 24, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased compared with July 27, 2025. [74] - As of August 29, 2025, the warehouse receipts of natural rubber were 178,640 tons, and those of 20 - number rubber were 45,662 tons. [78] - As of August 24, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 1.27 million tons, including 797,000 tons of dark - colored rubber and 473,000 tons of light - colored rubber. [82] - As of August 27, 2025, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons. [85] 3.5 Position - The total position of the RU main contract showed certain fluctuations. The total positions of NR and BR changed, with the NR position increasing and the BR position increasing significantly from July 31 to August 28, 2025. [87][89] 3.6 Other (Options) - The report presented the historical volatility and historical volatility cone of natural rubber and butadiene rubber options, as well as the put - call ratios of option trading volume and position. [92][97]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment ratings for RU and NR are neutral, and the rating for BR is also neutral [5][6] Core Viewpoints - For natural rubber, continuous rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas is expected to keep raw material prices firm, providing cost - side support. However, prices will fall after the rain ends. Current supply pressure is small, but domestic supply is expected to increase at the end of August. Tire开工率 is divided, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the peak demand season [5] - For BR, the overall supply is expected to increase next week. Tire开工率 is divided, and the weakening of semi - steel tire开工率 has a more obvious impact on BR, resulting in a weak supply - demand pattern. The price of upstream butadiene is expected to remain strong, and the price of surrounding natural rubber also has a certain pulling effect on BR [6] Market News and Data Futures - The closing price of the RU main contract was 15,675 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,525 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,715 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan/ton [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,750 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,530 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,795 US dollars/ton, down 15 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber was 1,745 US dollars/ton, down 20 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 from PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan/ton [1] Market Information Import and Export - In July 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 474,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.91%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.6005 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 21.82% [2] - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In July alone, exports increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - From January to July 2025, China's rubber tire exports reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to July was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] Sales - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, including exports and new - energy models, an approximately 42% increase compared to 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] Production and Sales - In July, China's commercial vehicle production and sales were 298,000 and 306,000 vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 16.3% and 14.1%. Affected by seasonal factors, they decreased by 15.8% and 17.1% month - on - month. The industry showed a mild recovery driven by factors such as the recovery of logistics demand, the scrapping of old commercial vehicles, and new - energy purchase subsidies [3] US Tire Imports - In the first half of 2025, the United States imported a total of 143.43 million tires, a year - on - year increase of 6.8%. Passenger car tire imports increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; truck and bus tire imports increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; aircraft tire imports decreased by 13% year - on - year to 1，320,000; motorcycle tire imports increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; bicycle tire imports increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [3] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the RU basis was - 925 yuan/ton (+50), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,145 yuan/ton (-80), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,098 yuan/ton (+124.98), the NR basis was 288 yuan/ton (+62). The price of whole latex was 14,750 yuan/ton (-150), the price of mixed rubber was 14,530 yuan/ton (-120), the price of 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (-50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,795 US dollars/ton (-15), the spread between whole latex and 3L was - 100 yuan/ton (-100), the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,230 yuan/ton (-120) [4] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 59.60 Thai baht/kg (-1.25), the price of Thai latex was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (unchanged), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.35 Thai baht/kg (-0.45), and the spread between Thai latex and cup lump was 5.35 Thai baht/kg (+0.45) [4] 开工率 - The开工率 of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+2.56%), and the开工率 of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (-0.60%) [4] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,285,363 tons (+7,504), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (-3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+4,234) [5] BR Spot and Spreads - On August 20, 2025, the BR basis was - 265 yuan/ton (-125), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Transfar was 11,500 yuan/ton (-250), the price of private - owned BR in Shandong was 11,450 yuan/ton (-150), and the import profit of BR in Northeast Asia was - 1,201 yuan/ton (-203) [5] 开工率 - The开工率 of high - cis BR was 64.52% (-3.65%) [5] Inventory - The inventory of BR traders was 7,410 tons (+420), and the inventory of BR enterprises was 23,200 tons (-250) [5]

Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Industry Daily Report 2025 - 07 - 22 [1] - Analyst: Lin Jingyi, with Futures Practitioner Qualification No. F03139610 and Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate No. Z0021558 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - The resistance to raising prices of raw material butadiene has emerged, weakening the cost - side support for butadiene rubber. With the restart of most butadiene rubber maintenance devices in mid - to - late July, the supply is expected to increase. Last week, driven by the macro - sentiment, the mainstream supply price rose significantly, leading to a decline in the inventory of butadiene rubber production enterprises and a slight increase in the inventory of trading enterprises. After the restart of some devices this week, the domestic supply is expected to increase, while downstream buyers continue to bargain, which may drive up the inventory of production enterprises. In terms of demand, the production scheduling of domestic tire maintenance enterprises last week gradually returned to normal, driving a restorative increase in the overall production capacity utilization rate of enterprises. Currently, the production scheduling of enterprises is stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in orders in the middle and late stages, which is expected to have a small positive impact on the overall operation rate. The BR2509 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 11,700 - 12,400 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 105 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 49,351, with a week - on - week increase of 34,358. The 8 - 9 spread of synthetic rubber is 15 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the total number of butadiene rubber warehouse receipts is 2,400 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 300 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 150 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,850 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,850 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 100 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 55 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 69.21 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.07 US dollars/barrel; Naphtha CFR Japan is 820 US dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 572.88 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.5 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,050 US dollars/ton; WTI crude oil is 67.2 US dollars/barrel, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.14 US dollars/barrel; the mainstream price of butadiene in Shandong market is 9,825 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 375 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 147,700 tons, with no week - on - week change; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.96%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 20,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,600 tons; the operation rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit is 47.31%, with a week - on - week increase of 1.17 percentage points. The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 122,500 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 16,900 tons; the weekly production capacity utilization rate of butadiene rubber is 65.21%, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.33 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 632 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 106 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory of butadiene rubber is 32,300 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 500 tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory of butadiene rubber is 25,650 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 850 tons; the weekly trader inventory of butadiene rubber is 6,600 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 330 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operation rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 75.99%, with a week - on - week increase of 3.07 percentage points; the operation rate of domestic all - steel tires is 65.1%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.54 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 12.62 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 800,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 55.23 million pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 1.08 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 40.85 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.18 days, with a week - on - week increase of 0.42 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of July 17, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 230,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 1.59%. As of July 17, the production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 68.13%, a week - on - week increase of 2.34 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 11.96 percentage points; the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises in China was 61.98%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.92 percentage points. In June 2025, the sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 92,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a 4% increase from May and a 29% increase from the same period last year. From January to June this year, the cumulative sales volume of China's heavy - truck market was about 533,300 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 6% [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - No news today [2]

1 光期研究 2 0 2 5年6月橡 胶 策 略 报 告 2 0 2 5 年 6 月 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 橡胶：需求负反馈或逐步显现，胶价震荡探底 p 2 | | 目 | 录 | | --- | --- | --- | | 1、价格：期货盘面偏弱震荡 | | | | 2、供应：天胶国内外开割季 | | | | 3、需求：轮胎库存累库高位 | | | | 4、库存：天然橡胶库存累库趋缓 | | | | 5、持仓：NR持仓高于同期，RU持仓恢复中 | | | p 3 1.1 价格：RU盘面月跌幅7.9%，NR盘面月跌幅3.42%，BR盘面月涨幅0.59% p 4 1.2 价格：橡胶主力合约基差 | 单位 ：元/吨 | 基 差 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RU主力基差 NR主力基差 | | BR主力基差 | | 2025/5/30 | -55 | 134 | 555 | | 2025/4/30 | -155 | 101 | 620 | | 涨跌值 | 100 | 32 ...

Report Summary - The synthetic rubber outperformed natural rubber this week. The rise of synthetic rubber was mainly due to the sharp increase in the price of butadiene. For natural rubber, recent weather affected the tapping progress, leading to less raw material output and high purchase prices, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed after the holiday, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was still difficult and had not recovered to last year's level. Macroscopically, the substantial progress in the Sino - US tariff negotiation and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs exceeded market expectations, and the pessimistic sentiment was repaired. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [6][24]. - The State Council Tariff Commission adjusted the tariff measures on imported goods from the US since May 14, 2025. The tariff rate in Announcement No. 4 of 2025 was adjusted from 34% to 10%, and the 24% tariff was suspended for 90 days. The tariff measures in Announcement No. 5 and No. 6 of 2025 were stopped [7]. - In April 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 2.619 million and 2.59 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 8.9% and 9.8%. New energy vehicle production and sales were 1.251 million and 1.226 million vehicles respectively, with year - on - year growth of 43.8% and 44.2%. In April, automobile exports reached 517,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [7]. - Since the implementation of the automobile trade - in policy in 2024, the cumulative subsidy applications exceeded 10 million. As of May 11, 2025, the subsidy applications reached 3.225 million, with over 53% for new energy vehicles [7]. - The weekly rainfall in global natural rubber producing areas increased, and the rainfall in Southeast Asian producing areas would increase in the next two weeks, affecting tapping [7]. - The price of natural rubber raw materials was strong. Qingdao Port's inventory increased while the general trade inventory decreased. The butadiene price rose rapidly, increasing the losses of butadiene rubber producers. The inventory of butadiene rubber factories and traders decreased. The overall tire capacity utilization rebounded [7]. Multi - empty Focus - Bullish factors included strong raw material prices strengthening cost support and the significant reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the US. Bearish factors were the difficult inventory removal of tire companies suppressing capacity utilization and the difficult inventory removal in Qingdao [10]. Data Analysis - As of May 15, the price of fresh glue in Thailand was 61.75 Thai baht/kg, and the cup lump price was 54.15 Thai baht/kg. The glue price in Yunnan, China, was 13,800 yuan/ton. The raw material prices at home and abroad moved up compared with last week. Weather affected the tapping progress, resulting in less output and high prices, strengthening cost support [12]. - As of the week of May 9, the spot inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 89,994 tons, an increase of 5,003 tons, and the general trade spot inventory was 528,699 tons, a decrease of 497 tons. After the holiday, the macro - sentiment and the recovery of downstream production drove some terminal purchases, but the inventory in Qingdao fluctuated slightly [13]. - This week, the domestic butadiene market rose rapidly. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs drove up the prices of commodities and related products in the butadiene industry chain. The port inventory decreased, some devices had unplanned maintenance, and merchants held back goods, tightening the supply. The market's unexpected rise stimulated downstream chasing sentiment, but as the price reached a high level, downstream buying became cautious. As of May 15, the delivery price in the central Shandong region was 11,200 - 11,600 yuan/ton, and the ex - tank self - pick - up price in East China was 10,600 - 10,800 yuan/ton. As of the week of May 16, 2025, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 700 yuan/ton [15]. - As of the week of May 16, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,650 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from last week, and the trader inventory was 5,470 tons, a decrease of 430 tons. The easing of the macro - atmosphere this week boosted the spot trading sentiment, and both factory and trader inventories decreased [17]. - As of the week of May 16, 2025, the capacity utilization of all - steel tires was 59.88%, an increase of 18.19% from last week, and the inventory - available days of all - steel tires in Shandong factories were 42.77 days, an increase of 0.25 days. The capacity utilization of semi - steel tires was 71.21%, an increase of 24.5% from last week, and the inventory - available days of semi - steel tires in Shandong factories were 45.78 days, an increase of 0.69 days. After the holiday, production resumed, but the capacity utilization had limited upside as the inventory removal was difficult and had not recovered to last year's level [19]. - As of May 15, the spread of the "RU - NR" September contract was weak. Affected by the short - term strength of synthetic rubber, the spread of the "NR - BR" September contract declined [21]. Market Outlook - The rise of synthetic rubber was due to the sharp increase in butadiene prices. For natural rubber, weather affected tapping, strengthening cost support. On the demand side, tire companies' production resumed but the capacity utilization had limited upside as inventory removal was difficult. Macroscopically, the Sino - US tariff negotiation improved market sentiment. In the short term, the rubber market was supported by raw material prices but pressured by demand, and would mainly fluctuate as macro disturbances gradually subsided [24].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月11日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 操作建议 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 操作建议 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【海关总署：2025年4月中国进口橡胶同比增31%至68.5万吨】据中国海关总署5月9日公布的数据显示，2025年4月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）合计 68.5万吨，较2024年同期的52.3万吨增加31%。2025年1-4月中国进口天然及合成橡胶（含胶乳）共计286.9万吨，较2024年同期的232.9万吨增加23.2%。 2.【2025年一季度欧洲替换胎市场销量增2.5%】5月8日，欧洲轮胎和橡胶制造商协会（ETRMA）发布市场数据显示，2025年一季度欧洲替换 ...