证券研究报告 汽车 报告日期：2026 年 01 月 27 日 2026 年首月政策过渡期，新能源渗透率短暂承压 ——汽车行业周报 执业证书编号：S0230525080001 邮箱：lihy@hlzq.com 《英伟达发布自动驾驶模型平台， 报》2026.01.12 业爆发—汽车行业点评报告》2025.12.29 《反内卷+国补预计延续，看好 2026 年 车市向好—汽车行业周报》2025.12.29 摘要： 请认真阅读文后免责条款 . 本周观点：2026 年 1 月新能源渗透率短暂承压，看好高端化&出 海自主车企。据乘联分会预计，2026 年 1 月我国狭义乘用车零售 销量 180 万辆左右，环比-20.4%，同比微增 0.3%，2026 年新一轮 以旧换新补贴已启动，政策的延续与优化预计在全年对汽车市场 构成稳定有力的支撑。新能源方面，2026 年 1 月新能源零售销量 预计为 80 万辆左右，同比-40.2%，环比+7.5%。短期市场正处于 关键的政策衔接与转换期。新能源汽车购置税补贴变化，叠加 1 月天气寒冷，年前首购用户价格敏感需求占优等多重因素，新能 源市场热度相对较低，预计 1 月渗透率将为阶段 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Guangzhou Auto Show featured 93 global premieres, a significant increase from 78 last year, but the expected excitement was notably absent [1] - Despite the increase in new car launches, the event experienced lower attendance and engagement compared to previous years [1][4] Group 1: New Energy Brands - New energy brands like Xiaomi and Xpeng had less impactful presentations compared to previous events, with fewer high-profile product launches [4][9] - The absence of key executives like Lei Jun and Yu Chengdong at the event contributed to a lack of excitement, as their presence typically generates significant media attention [5][9] - The new energy brands focused more on technology explanations and market performance rather than launching groundbreaking new models, leading to a subdued atmosphere [9][18] Group 2: Traditional Automakers - Traditional automakers showcased a stronger lineup of new energy vehicles, with models like GAC Toyota's Platinum 7 and Audi's E SUV concept drawing more attention [13] - The traditional brands view the Guangzhou Auto Show as a critical platform for strategic positioning and sales momentum, contrasting with the new energy brands' more pragmatic approach [14][36] - High-end sub-brands from traditional manufacturers attracted significant media interest through celebrity appearances and engaging marketing strategies, enhancing their visibility [22][27] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The shift in focus from generating traffic to achieving actual sales reflects a broader industry trend where new energy brands prioritize efficiency and profitability over mere visibility [17][21] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with new energy brands increasingly relying on online channels for customer engagement and sales, reducing their dependence on physical auto shows [17][18] - Traditional brands, while leveraging their established market presence, may risk over-reliance on celebrity endorsements, potentially diverting resources from essential areas like technology development and customer service [31][36] Group 4: Industry Transformation - The contrasting experiences at the Guangzhou Auto Show highlight a fundamental shift in the automotive industry, moving from hype-driven strategies to more sustainable business practices [32][36] - Both new energy and traditional brands must prove their value through innovation, customer experience, and cost management as competition intensifies [36]