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嘉实基金吴越:明年消费板块有望迎来反转,白酒有很大向上动能
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-19 11:01
Group 1: Core Views - The recent controversy involving Luo Yonghao and Xibei regarding prepared dishes has attracted public attention, coinciding with the upcoming consumption peak during the double festival period, leading investors to have high expectations for the performance of the consumer sector [1] - Wu Yue, the guest on Sohu Finance's "Fund Q&A," holds a "short-term bearish, long-term bullish" view on the prepared dishes industry, suggesting that while the recent incident may pressure some supply chain companies in the short term, the implementation of national standards will promote the industry's standardization and branding in the long run [4][5] - The white liquor sector is seen as having significant opportunities, with Wu Yue stating that it is currently at an absolute bottom, and the risk-reward ratio is at a favorable level not seen in the past decade [5][8] Group 2: Industry Insights - The prepared dishes industry has seen a surge in company numbers, but this has led to homogenized competition and consumer concerns about production transparency. Investors are advised to conduct thorough research to identify quality companies [7][12] - The white liquor industry is characterized by its unique cultural significance in China, with its demand expected to persist as long as the macro economy remains stable and business activities continue [9][10] - The current market for prepared dishes is relatively small, with a total market capitalization of less than 100 billion, and the sector has underperformed compared to the overall market this year [6][12] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to focus on "consumer growth stocks," which are companies that maintain good performance growth despite macroeconomic pressures. These stocks are expected to yield good returns regardless of the overall consumption climate next year [12][15] - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see structural rebalancing in the market, with white liquor being a key sector to watch, especially leading up to the Spring Festival [14][15] - The new consumption sector is not a cohesive block, with only a few companies truly fitting the new consumer demand profile. Investors should analyze each company individually rather than treating the sector as a whole [12][14]