Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Haitong Development [3][9][11]. Core Views - Haitong Development is a private enterprise engaged in domestic coastal and international bulk cargo transportation, with foreign trade becoming its core business. The foreign trade revenue share is expected to increase from 29% in 2020 to 65% in 2024, contributing 93% to gross profit in 2024. The company adopts a strategy of purchasing second-hand ships for expansion, maintaining a balance between scale and stability. The company has significant operational flexibility, with a projected net profit increase of approximately 530 million yuan for every $5,000/day rise in freight rates [3][7][9]. Company Overview - Haitong Development, established in 2009, specializes in domestic coastal and international bulk cargo transportation. The company has built a fleet of large handy bulk carriers, controlling a total capacity of 4.84 million deadweight tons as of mid-2025, ranking ninth globally in large handy bulk carrier capacity [6][33]. Business Expansion - The company has expanded its foreign trade business significantly, with foreign trade revenue share projected to rise from 29.3% in 2020 to 65.0% in 2024. The foreign trade business is expected to contribute 92.7% to gross profit in 2024. The company primarily operates on a time-charter basis, which presents lower risk exposure compared to voyage chartering [7][39]. Industry Analysis - The dry bulk shipping industry is expected to see a gradual recovery, with domestic supply likely to clear out. The average age of domestic dry bulk vessels is 11 years, with a significant portion being older than 18 years. A subsidy policy for scrapping old vessels is expected to accelerate the exit of older ships from the market, tightening supply [8][59][63]. Financial Performance - The company exhibits strong financial metrics, with a return on equity (ROE) of 14.2% and a low debt-to-asset ratio of 29.4% in 2024, providing a solid foundation for future expansion [7][49]. The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 300 million, 620 million, and 750 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26.5, 12.9, and 10.7 [9][11].