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投资“触礁”之后,我选择一年“躺赚”近30%
雪球· 2025-07-30 13:00
Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a crucial strategy for investors to manage risks and achieve stable returns in fluctuating markets [4][20][46]. Group 1: Understanding Asset Allocation - Asset allocation is described as the art of distributing investment funds across different asset classes, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and cash, to minimize risk [5][6]. - The concept of "not putting all eggs in one basket" is highlighted, indicating that merely buying multiple funds is insufficient; true diversification requires spreading investments across various asset types [5][6]. - Benjamin Graham's 50-50 investment strategy is introduced, suggesting a balanced approach of allocating 50% to stocks for growth and 50% to bonds for stability, which serves as a safety net during market volatility [6][20]. Group 2: Performance Analysis of Different Strategies - A backtest of three investment strategies shows that the 50-50 allocation outperformed both all-stock and all-bond portfolios over a five-year period, with a cumulative return of +18.38% compared to -4.66% for the stock index [9][18]. - The all-stock portfolio exhibited high volatility, with a maximum drawdown exceeding 35%, while the 50-50 portfolio maintained lower volatility and drawdown levels [13][18]. - The all-bond portfolio, while initially underperforming, eventually surpassed the all-stock strategy due to its lower risk profile and quicker recovery from downturns [15][18]. Group 3: Advanced Asset Allocation Strategies - The article discusses modern asset allocation strategies, such as Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio, which aims for consistent performance across various economic conditions by diversifying into low-correlation assets [20][21]. - Harry Browne's Permanent Portfolio is also mentioned, advocating for an equal distribution of assets across stocks, bonds, gold, and cash to ensure stability regardless of economic fluctuations [21][22]. Group 4: Practical Implementation of Asset Allocation - The article outlines a practical approach for constructing a diversified fund portfolio, emphasizing the need to assess risk tolerance and investment goals before allocation [28][29]. - It suggests a three-part allocation strategy, including 15% in bonds, 70% in stocks, and 15% in commodities like gold, to balance growth and stability [25][26]. - Regular rebalancing of the portfolio is recommended to maintain the desired risk-return profile, ensuring that no single asset class dominates the portfolio [29][30]. Group 5: Advantages and Limitations of the Proposed Strategies - The diversified investment approach is praised for its ability to reduce risk and provide resilience during economic downturns, making it suitable for various market conditions [40][41]. - However, limitations such as regulatory constraints on QDII investments and the inherent volatility of A-shares are acknowledged, which may require investors to exercise discipline [41][42]. - The article concludes that while asset allocation may not yield overnight wealth, it serves as a reliable compass in the unpredictable investment landscape, promoting steady growth over time [46][47].