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锅圈(02517.HK):一站式在家吃饭餐食龙头 筑底反弹拐点已现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-18 13:17
Investment Highlights - Company is the leading player in the domestic home meal solutions market, with a target price of HKD 4.90, corresponding to 22 times the 2026 P/E ratio [1] - The home meal market is expected to grow significantly, reaching CNY 13.6 trillion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2022 to 2027 [1] - The market is still relatively fragmented, with a CR5 of only 11.1% in 2022, indicating potential for increased concentration [1] Competitive Advantages - Company offers a comprehensive product range with approximately 300-500 SKUs per store, catering to diverse consumer needs [2] - Strong supply chain management, supported by seven self-owned factories and 19 central warehouses, enables cost reduction and efficient order fulfillment [2] - Digital infrastructure enhances operational efficiency, with membership growth of 63% and single-store membership growth of 51% as of 1H25 [2] Growth Potential - Company has room for expansion in store openings, particularly in rural markets [2] - Differentiated business model and advantages in supply chain, digitalization, and organizational efficiency are expected to drive long-term growth [2] Financial Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 0.16 and CNY 0.20 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 35% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Current stock price corresponds to 19.1 times the 2026 P/E, with an upward potential of 15% based on the target price [2]