餐饮行业永远不缺风口，缺的是发现风口的眼光。当大多数人还在红海里厮杀时，聪明的餐饮人已经开 始布局新赛道。今天就带大家看看，2025年餐饮行业正在发生的五个深刻变化。 趋势一：性价比升级——不是更便宜，而是更超值 消费者不是舍不得花钱，而是希望花得值。于是我们看到： 聪明的商家开始做"价值重构"：在核心产品上加大投入，在非核心环节降低成本。让顾客明显感受 到"物超所值"，这才是新时代的性价比。 趋势二：社区餐饮的深耕——做500米的生意 商圈餐饮竞争白热化，社区餐饮正在崛起。最成功的社区店都在做"三好学生"： 社区店的优势很明显：客源稳定、租金合理、竞争相对温和。关键是深耕细作，做透周边500米的生 意。 趋势三：情绪价值的售卖——吃的不是饭，是氛围 30元一碗的牛肉面，用的是安格斯牛肉，顾客排队购买 人均150元的餐厅，提供的是人均300元的体验 外卖包装不再简陋，开启时充满仪式感 好邻居：融入社区，和居民成为朋友 好手艺：不求菜品种类多，但求道道是精品 好服务：记住熟客口味，提供个性化服务 与其做满汉全席，不如把一道菜做到极致。今年火爆的餐厅很多都是单品打天下： 单品策略的优势很明显：供应链更简单，出品更 ...

餐饮食品连锁加盟行业 丨白皮书 核心摘要： 宏观回暖驱动内需释放，消费市场已进入温和增长新常态 2020年至2024年，中国国内生产总值（GDP）的年均复合增长率为6.9%，中国社会消费品零售总额（社零）的年均复合增长率约为5.5%，反映经济增 长对消费的持续拉动。从居民端来看， 同期人均可支配收入和人均消费支出的年均复合增长率分别为6.4%和为7.4%，消费支出增速略高于可支配收 入。 宏观数据反映出中国内需仍具韧性，居民收入和消费水平稳步提升，经济转型期消费市场已进入温和增长的新常态。作为社零重要组成部分，餐 饮食品行业有望受益于居民消费能力的整体提升和消费结构的持续优化。 中国餐饮食品连锁加盟行业正经历着深刻的变革。在宏观经济回暖、居民消费能力稳步提升的背景下，餐饮食品市场规模持续扩大。连锁化率虽有提升，但与欧美发 达国家相比仍有巨大增长空间。在家餐食市场的快速崛起，以及消费者对健康、效率和社交价值的更高需求，正在重塑行业结构。在这种背景下，连锁品牌正加速其 数字化转型和全渠道营销布局，以构建核心竞争力。同时，具备丰富经验的 "职业加盟商"群体不断扩大，品牌与加盟商之间的关系正从粗放式扩张转向精细化运营 ...

Investment Highlights - Company is the leading player in the domestic home meal solutions market, with a target price of HKD 4.90, corresponding to 22 times the 2026 P/E ratio [1] - The home meal market is expected to grow significantly, reaching CNY 13.6 trillion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.9% from 2022 to 2027 [1] - The market is still relatively fragmented, with a CR5 of only 11.1% in 2022, indicating potential for increased concentration [1] Competitive Advantages - Company offers a comprehensive product range with approximately 300-500 SKUs per store, catering to diverse consumer needs [2] - Strong supply chain management, supported by seven self-owned factories and 19 central warehouses, enables cost reduction and efficient order fulfillment [2] - Digital infrastructure enhances operational efficiency, with membership growth of 63% and single-store membership growth of 51% as of 1H25 [2] Growth Potential - Company has room for expansion in store openings, particularly in rural markets [2] - Differentiated business model and advantages in supply chain, digitalization, and organizational efficiency are expected to drive long-term growth [2] Financial Projections - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be CNY 0.16 and CNY 0.20 for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 35% from 2024 to 2026 [2] - Current stock price corresponds to 19.1 times the 2026 P/E, with an upward potential of 15% based on the target price [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [1] Core Insights - Supply and demand are rebalancing, with capital expenditure peaks passing and demand gradually recovering under policy and consumption recovery [5][10] - New growth drivers are emerging through product innovation and channel expansion, breaking the price competition [5][36] - The industry logic is strengthening, with the standardization of prepared dishes and an increase in chain rates driving industry concentration [5][36] - Investment recommendations focus on the supply chain opportunities in the restaurant sector, highlighting major companies and smaller firms with growth potential [5][36] Summary by Sections Supply and Demand Rebalancing - Capital expenditure in the industry has significantly declined after 2023, with a focus on improving capacity utilization [5][10] - The price war is gradually coming to an end, and the third quarter of 2025 may mark an operational turning point for the industry [5][22] - Demand is stabilizing, with restaurant openings and closures balancing out, and consumption showing resilience during peak holiday periods [5][26][27] New Growth Drivers - Companies are shifting focus from price competition to product innovation and channel expansion, with retail trends becoming more pronounced [5][36] - Major companies are launching new products and optimizing channels to adapt to the changing market landscape [5][44] Strengthening Industry Logic - Recent regulatory developments in prepared dishes are expected to raise industry entry barriers, benefiting compliant leading companies [5][36] - The chain rate in the restaurant sector is projected to increase from 19% in 2021 to 23% in 2024, indicating a trend towards consolidation [5][36] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major companies like Anjuke Food, Angel Yeast, and Haitian Flavoring, as well as smaller firms like Baoli Food and Lihigh Food for potential growth [5][36] - The overall market is expected to improve with a favorable chip structure and policy expectations [5][36]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese restaurant food chain franchise industry is undergoing profound changes, driven by macroeconomic recovery and increasing consumer spending power, leading to market expansion and digital transformation [1][4][9] Market Overview - The Chinese restaurant food market is projected to reach 12.6 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% from 2020 to 2024, driven by both service and retail sectors [9] - The average annual growth rate of GDP is expected to be 6.9%, while the retail sales of consumer goods will grow at about 5.5% during the same period, indicating resilient domestic demand [4] Consumer Behavior - Urban and rural residents' per capita consumption expenditure is showing a recovery trend, with urban residents growing at 6.4% and rural residents at 8.9% annually from 2020 to 2024, reflecting the vitality of the lower-tier market [6] - The demand for food and beverages remains stable, providing a solid foundation for the restaurant food industry [6] Industry Trends - The chain rate in the restaurant service sector is expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2025, indicating significant growth potential compared to developed countries [12] - The rise of "at-home dining" is reshaping industry structures, with this market segment growing at a CAGR of 18.4% from 2020 to 2024, significantly outpacing overall food retail growth [10] Franchise Dynamics - The franchise market is dominated by the restaurant sector, which accounts for nearly 50% of the market, but most franchise businesses are still in early expansion stages, with nearly 80% of registered franchise companies having fewer than 10 stores [20][22] - The competitive environment is shifting towards refined operations, with franchisees focusing on quality site selection and cost structure rather than engaging in price wars [24] Investment Considerations - Franchisees are increasingly favoring the "at-home dining" segment due to its lower investment threshold and shorter return on investment period, with expected payback periods of 10 to 20 months [34][36] - The leading brand in the at-home dining segment, Guoquan Shihui, is recognized for its low investment requirements and mature, replicable business model, making it a preferred choice for franchisees [39] Digital Transformation - The industry is experiencing a critical need for digital transformation to support scale expansion and profitability, with brands leveraging data-driven site selection and standardized operational systems [44] Franchisee Profile - The franchisee landscape is evolving, with a growing number of professional franchisees who have prior successful experiences, leading to a more selective relationship between brands and franchisees [47][48]

Core Insights - The Chinese restaurant food chain franchise industry is undergoing significant transformation, driven by macroeconomic recovery and increasing consumer spending power, leading to market expansion and digital transformation [1][4][9] Market Overview - The Chinese restaurant food market is projected to reach 12.6 trillion yuan, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 7.2% from 2020 to 2024, driven by both service and retail sectors [9] - The restaurant service sector is recovering strongly post-pandemic, with an annual growth rate close to 9%, while food retail is experiencing structural upgrades with high-value subcategories [9][10] Consumer Behavior - Urban and rural consumer spending is showing a recovery trend, with urban residents' spending growing at a CAGR of 6.4% and rural residents at 8.9% from 2020 to 2024, indicating strong demand for food and beverages [6] - The at-home dining market is rapidly growing at a CAGR of 18.4%, reflecting changing consumer preferences towards convenience and health [10][36] Industry Trends - The chain franchise rate in China is expected to rise from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2025, indicating a shift towards more standardized and digital operations [12] - The market is seeing a divergence in franchise categories, with ready-to-drink beverages leading in chain rates, while traditional Chinese cuisine remains lower due to its reliance on local tastes and chef skills [15] Investment Opportunities - The at-home dining segment is favored by franchisees due to its lower investment threshold and shorter return on investment periods, with average monthly sales ranging from 80,000 to 200,000 yuan and gross margins of 30-40% [34][35] - Brands like Guoquan Shihui are emerging as leaders in the at-home dining space, offering a diverse product matrix and strong operational support for franchisees [39][40] Digital Transformation - The industry is increasingly adopting digital solutions to enhance operational efficiency and scalability, with data-driven site selection and standardized operating procedures becoming essential for franchise success [44] Franchisee Dynamics - The franchisee landscape is shifting towards more experienced operators, with a growing number of professional franchisees who prioritize brands with clear profit models and operational support [47][48]

Core Insights - The article highlights the recognition of Guoquan Shihui as a leading brand in the home meal sector, awarded by iResearch Consulting for its significant market position among over ten thousand franchisees [1][6]. Industry Overview - The Chinese restaurant food chain industry is moving towards refined operations, with the chain service rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to 24% by 2025, indicating a shift towards more structured and efficient business models [3]. - The trend of retailing in the restaurant sector is accelerating, driven by growing consumer demand for home dining, leading to an expansion into delivery, prepared meals, and ready-to-eat products [3]. Market Dynamics - The home meal sector is becoming increasingly attractive to franchisees due to its rapid growth, strong certainty, and relatively low competition [4]. - The operational requirements for home meal products are lower, with a focus on frozen goods, high standardization, and flexible product combinations, making it easier for franchisees to enter the market [4]. Company Positioning - Guoquan Shihui stands out as a leading player in the home meal sector, offering a diverse product matrix that includes over 600 SKUs across various categories such as hot pot, barbecue, and ready-to-cook meals [5]. - The company has established a comprehensive supply chain with seven production bases and 19 regional distribution centers, ensuring efficient product delivery and coverage across various consumer scenarios [5]. - Guoquan Shihui's business model is validated by its presence in over 10,400 stores nationwide, with a significant number of franchisees benefiting from its brand recognition and operational support [6].

Summary of Guoquan Food and Beverage Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Guoquan Food and Beverage - **Industry**: Food and Beverage, specifically focusing on hot pot and related dining experiences Key Points and Arguments Operational Performance - In the first half of 2025, Guoquan improved store management and sales through refined operations, organizational adjustments, and rapid new store openings, resulting in the accumulation of initial membership assets [2][4] - The same-store performance continued to show positive momentum in Q3 2025, with expectations for stable trends in Q4 driven by enhanced hot pot packages and new SKUs [2][5][6] Store Expansion Plans - The company plans to add a net total of 1,000 new stores in 2025, with over half located in rural markets, aligning with annual targets [2][7] - The pace of new store openings in July and August 2025 is on track, with a typical one-month timeline from signing to opening [7] Franchise Strategy - Guoquan focuses on partnering with small business owners rather than financial investors, which enhances operational quality and customer service [8][9] - The strategy varies by region, encouraging multi-store openings in county-level and above areas while promoting single-store franchises in rural areas [9] Product and Market Strategy - The company aims to meet consumer needs through standardized flavors and high cost-performance, with prices averaging 1/3 to 1/2 lower than traditional restaurants [2][13] - Guoquan is exploring supply chain and product expansion into overseas markets, including Hong Kong and Southeast Asia, with a long-term goal of international business model expansion [2][19][20] Customer Engagement and Marketing - Sales trends in August and September 2025 met expectations, driven by product expansion, SKU deepening, and increased membership activity [3] - The company utilizes localized product development to cater to regional tastes, with a total SKU count reaching 700 [16] Financial Performance and Shareholder Returns - The company reported a dividend of approximately 190 million yuan in the mid-2025 report, indicating a high dividend payout ratio [21] - Guoquan aims for a mid-term net profit margin target of 7-8%, focusing on optimizing management and sales expenses [23][24] Supply Chain Management - The company addresses supply chain complexity through scale effects and cost performance, leveraging experience from its agricultural market stores [17] - Core raw material prices, particularly for meat products, are subject to cyclical fluctuations, but the company maintains a competitive edge through imported products and self-owned factories [25] Marketing and Sales Strategy - Sales expenses are stable, with ongoing optimization as revenue scales up, and the company has seen improved efficiency from marketing on platforms like Douyin [26] Future Developments - Guoquan is innovating in the beverage sector, including craft beer and juice products, which have seen significant sales growth [28] Additional Important Insights - The company emphasizes the importance of local market adaptation and customer preferences in its product offerings [15][16] - Guoquan's approach to franchisee selection and operational strategy is designed to enhance the overall customer experience and operational efficiency [8][9][10]