新华财经开罗1月13日电 2025年，埃及经济在地缘冲突持续扰动的背景下展现出显著韧性，埃镑汇率实 现近十年来罕见的稳中走强，全年升值约6%。埃镑走势远超2025年初国际机构的普遍预期，其背后是 侨汇、旅游业和外国直接投资三大外汇来源的协同发力，以及结构性改革带来的宏观经济指标全面改 善。 展望2026年，埃及经济有望在结构性改革深化与外部账户改善的支撑下延续复苏态势。国际机构普遍预 测2025/2026财年GDP增速将落在4.5%至4.7%区间。埃镑汇率预计将保持相对稳定，惠誉和渣打银行均 认为美元兑埃镑将在47.5至49之间窄幅波动，得益于侨汇、旅游业和外国直接投资三大外汇来源持续强 劲，以及净国际储备有望升至526亿美元。尽管如此，能源进口依赖、青年失业及债务压力等结构性挑 战仍可能制约中长期增长动能。 埃及2025年经济企稳但结构性挑战犹存 2025年，埃及宏观经济呈现显著改善迹象。官方数据显示，该国年度通货膨胀率由2024年底的24.1%大 幅回落至10.3%；净国际储备从471亿美元增至514亿美元，增加43亿美元；2025年前11个月对外贸易逆 差为303亿美元，同比收窄11.9%。三项核心指标 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Egyptian pound (EGP) has strengthened significantly, reaching a near one-year high, with expectations that the USD/EGP exchange rate will fluctuate between 45 and 49 by the end of 2025 [1][2][6] Exchange Rate Trends - The EGP has shown stability and slight appreciation this year, with the USD/EGP rate around 48.5, up approximately 5% from 50.84 at the beginning of the year [2] - The Egyptian pound's strength has exceeded previous forecasts, with Fitch Solutions predicting a rate of 50 to 55 by 2025 [2] Macroeconomic Indicators - Inflation in Egypt has decreased from 24.1% in December 2024 to 13.1% in July 2025, supporting the EGP's stability [2] - Net international reserves increased from $47.1 billion at the end of 2024 to $49 billion by July 2025 [2] Factors Supporting EGP Strength - External factors such as a weakening USD and potential Fed rate cuts, combined with internal factors like increased foreign reserves and a stabilizing current account, have created a favorable environment for the EGP [4] - Significant foreign currency inflows from agreements with the UAE and other financing sources have bolstered foreign reserves [4] - Strong performance in tourism and remittances, along with improved trade balance, have also contributed to the EGP's strength [4] Investment Climate - Analysts believe the strong EGP will help the Egyptian government more effectively control inflation and accelerate interest rate cuts [3] - The increase in foreign capital inflows into Egypt's debt market and a stable monetary policy are seen as key pillars for exchange rate stability [5] Future Outlook - Experts predict that the EGP will remain stable in the short term, with potential for slight appreciation if the USD continues to weaken [6] - The EGP is expected to fluctuate between 48 and 49 in the coming months, with strong support at 47 and resistance at 50 [6] - However, the stability of the EGP is conditional, and any delays in economic reforms could undermine investor confidence [6]