[Table_Message]2025-08-24 金融工程周报 大类资产与基金周报（20250818-20250822）—— 权益市场爆发，权益基金上涨 3.84% [Table_Author] 证券分析师：刘晓锋 电话：13401163428 E-MAIL：liuxf@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190522090001 证券分析师：孙弋轩 电话：18910596766 E-MAIL：sunyixuan@tpyzq.com 执业资格证书编码：S1190525080001 内容摘要 太 平 洋 证 券 股 份 有 限 公 司 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 [Table_Title] [Table_Summary] . 金 融 工 程 周 报 ◼ 大类资产市场概况：1）权益：本周 A 股市场中上证指数收盘 3825.76，涨跌幅 3.49%， 深证成指、中小板指数、创业板指、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、中证 2000、 北证 50 涨跌幅分别为 4.57%、4.64%、5.85%、3.38%、4.18%、3.87%、 ...

近日，外汇市场传来消息，加元兑美元的汇率出现了显著波动。根据新浪外汇的最新报道，在2025年的 一个寻常夜晚，具体时间截至22时47分，加元兑美元的汇率成功突破了1加元兑换0.7228美元的关键点 位。 对于外汇市场的参与者而言，密切关注汇率的动态变化是至关重要的。无论是企业还是个人投资者，都 需要根据汇率的波动来调整自己的跨境交易策略和资产配置计划。在未来的日子里，随着全球经济形势 的不断变化，外汇市场的波动或许还将持续上演。 此次汇率变动中，加元兑美元的涨幅达到了0.5421%，这一变化引起了市场的广泛关注。对于需要进行 跨境交易或持有相关货币的投资者而言，这无疑是一个重要的市场动态。 来源：https://www.cnu.com.cn/character/202508/107256.html 同时，若将这一汇率变动转换为人民币汇率，其影响同样不容小觑。按照当前的汇率计算，100人民币 可以兑换约19.3000加元；而反过来，100加元则可以兑换约518.1347人民币。这样的汇率水平，对于中 加两国的贸易往来和跨境投资都具有重要意义。 中国银行也提供了最新的美元汇率牌价信息。截至22时35分，美元的现汇 ...

Core Insights - In July, banks in China reported a settlement of 16,700 billion yuan and a sale of 15,070 billion yuan, indicating a continued surplus in foreign exchange transactions [1] - The foreign exchange market in China has remained stable, with a month-on-month increase of 12% in settlement and 16% in sales, resulting in a surplus of 22.8 billion USD [1] - Cross-border capital flows have been generally stable, with non-bank sectors maintaining high levels of income and expenditure, leading to a balanced flow [1] Group 1 - In July, the net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33%, maintaining a high operational level [1] - The net outflow of funds from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, attributed to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] - The overall foreign exchange market is characterized by stable expectations and active trading, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a stable sale rate among enterprises and individuals [1]

每经记者｜范芊芊 每经编辑｜何小桃 陈鹏程 王晓波 标题点睛： 当地时间8月15日，美国总统特朗普和俄罗斯总统普京在美国阿拉斯加州安克雷奇举行联合新闻发布会。特朗普表示，和普京的会议非常富有成效，许多 事项已达成一致，只剩下少数几个未解决的点，"双方尚未达成（协议），但（当下）有很好的机会"。 8月15日，一段影石创新老板给员工撒钱的视频在网络上流传，画面中，影石董事长刘靖康站在高一层的楼上，向楼下的员工撒钱，员工伸手接钱。影石 创新8月15日公告，近日，相关媒体报道了公司现金红包派发活动，引发了市场广泛讨论。经核实，2025年8月14日21时，影石创新全景无人机品牌"影翎 Antigravity"宣布产品开启公测，并发布相应宣传视频。当晚，该无人机项目团队的百余名员工（以研发人员为主）在公司深圳办公室内举行小规模团建 活动。活动过程中，公司董事长以个人薪金通过现金红包派发的方式参与互动。针对该事件，公司已全面检视内部管理行为规范漏洞，并强化相关行为规 范，对员工及管理层进行教育，以符合上市公司公众形象的要求。 近日，国家企业信用信息公示系统网站显示，8月4日，北京普林赛斯文化传播有限责任公司新增一则股权冻结 ...

李斌表示，7月以来，国际汇市波动加大，美元指数反弹后回落，非美货币随之波动调整。 "我国外汇市场保持平稳运行。"李斌进一步分析，一是市场预期和交易平稳有序。7月，银行结汇和售 汇规模环比分别增长12%和16%，结售汇延续顺差态势，规模为228亿美元。企业、个人等主体结汇率 环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳定，交易较为活跃。二是跨境资金流动总体稳定。7 月，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支基本平衡；其中，货物贸易资金 净流入环比增长33%，保持高位运行；服务贸易、投资收益资金净流出环比分别增长34%和7%，主要是 居民暑期出境旅行、企业分红派息处于季节性高位。我国经济高质量发展稳步推进，加之外汇市场韧性 不断增强，都将为外汇市场保持稳健运行提供有力支撑。 ● 本报记者彭扬 8月15日，国家外汇管理局副局长、新闻发言人李斌就7月外汇市场形势回答记者提问时表示，7月，企 业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支基本平衡；其中，货物贸易资金净流入 环比增长33%，保持高位运行。 国家外汇管理局当日发布的数据显示，7月，银行结汇16700亿元人民币，售汇15070亿 ...

Core Viewpoint - The foreign exchange market in China is maintaining stable operations, with significant cross-border income and expenditure levels in July, indicating a balanced flow of funds [1][2]. Group 1: Foreign Exchange Market Performance - In July, the bank's foreign exchange settlement reached 16,700 billion RMB, while the foreign exchange sales amounted to 15,070 billion RMB, showing a month-on-month increase of 12% and 16% respectively [1][2]. - The cumulative foreign exchange settlement from January to July was 98,835 billion RMB, with sales at 99,020 billion RMB, reflecting a slight surplus in the settlement [1]. - The net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level of operation [1][2]. Group 2: Market Stability and Expectations - The exchange rate expectations and trading activities are stable, with a slight increase in the settlement rate and a steady sales rate among enterprises and individuals [2]. - The overall cross-border capital flow remains stable, with non-bank sectors' income and expenditure at historical highs, indicating a balanced flow [2]. - Factors such as high-quality economic development, steady progress in opening up, and enhanced resilience of the foreign exchange market are expected to support continued stability [2].

本报记者 刘琪 一是市场预期和交易平稳有序。7月份，银行结汇和售汇规模环比分别增长12%和16%，结售汇延续顺差态势，规模为228 亿美元。企业、个人等主体结汇率环比小幅上升，售汇率基本持平，说明市场预期稳定，交易较为活跃。 二是跨境资金流动总体稳定。7月份，企业、个人等非银行部门跨境收入和支出规模处于历史高位，收支基本平衡。其 中，货物贸易资金净流入环比增长33%，保持高位运行；服务贸易、投资收益资金净流出环比分别增长34%和7%，主要是居民 暑期出境旅行、企业分红派息处于季节性高位。 李斌表示，我国经济高质量发展稳步推进，加之外汇市场韧性不断增强，都将为外汇市场保持稳健运行提供有力支撑。 （编辑 郭之宸） 8月15日，国家外汇管理局公布的2025年7月份银行结售汇和银行代客涉外收付款数据。数据显示，按美元计值，2025年7 月份，银行结汇2336亿美元，售汇2108亿美元。2025年1月份至7月份，银行累计结汇13768亿美元，累计售汇13793亿美元。 按美元计值，2025年7月份，银行代客涉外收入6904亿美元，对外付款6981亿美元。2025年1月份至7月份，银行代客累计 涉外收入45510亿美元， ...

Core Insights - The foreign exchange market in China has maintained stable operations despite increased volatility in the international currency market, with a notable rebound and subsequent decline in the US dollar index [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In July, the scale of bank foreign exchange settlement and sales increased by 12% and 16% respectively, continuing a surplus trend with a total scale of 22.8 billion USD [1] - The exchange rate for enterprises and individuals showed a slight increase in settlement rates while the sales rates remained stable, indicating stable market expectations and active trading [1] Group 2: Cross-Border Capital Flows - Cross-border income and expenditure for non-bank sectors reached historical highs in July, with a balanced income and expenditure [1] - Net inflow of funds from goods trade increased by 33% month-on-month, maintaining a high level, while net outflows from service trade and investment income rose by 34% and 7% respectively, primarily due to seasonal factors such as summer travel and corporate dividend payouts [1] Group 3: Economic Support - The steady progress of high-quality economic development in China, along with the increasing resilience of the foreign exchange market, is expected to provide strong support for the stable operation of the foreign exchange market [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's recent interview has stirred the forex market, indicating dissatisfaction with the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions and raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - The disappointing July non-farm payroll data, with only 73,000 jobs added and a downward revision of 260,000 for the previous two months, provides new evidence of economic cooling [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has surged to 89%, according to the CME's FedWatch tool [1] - Major institutions like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup have warned that if August's employment data remains weak, a 50 basis point rate cut could be on the table [1] Group 2: "Global Economic Eye" Video Channel - The "Global Economic Eye" video channel aims to quickly respond to market-moving events such as Trump's personnel announcements, disappointing non-farm data, and aggressive rate cut predictions [5] - The channel focuses on global economic and political dynamics that can significantly impact the forex market, saving investors the effort of sifting through information [6] - The analysis provided by the experienced team goes beyond mere news reporting, delving into the underlying logic and market transmission mechanisms [6] Group 3: Benefits for Investors - The video format combines audio, visuals, and text, making it a more efficient way to convey complex global financial information, particularly in a fast-paced trading environment [7] - The channel directly addresses the core need of understanding market impacts, eliminating the need for investors to piece together fragmented information [7] - Regular engagement with the channel's in-depth analysis can enhance investors' sensitivity to market reactions to various events [7] Conclusion - The "Global Economic Eye" video channel is positioned as a reliable tool for forex investors, providing timely and insightful interpretations of market-moving events to aid in decision-making [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index is experiencing slight upward movement despite recent weak employment data and the resignation of a Federal Reserve official, leading to increased demand for bearish options on the dollar [1] Market Analysis - The current price of the US dollar index is reported at 98.81, with a 0.06% increase from an opening price of 98.75 [1] - The market has largely priced in expectations for a rate cut in September, limiting the downside potential for the dollar [1] - Implied volatility has surged, with the 1-month risk reversal indicator rising to 0.55 and the 1-year risk reversal indicator increasing to 0.725 [1] Technical Levels - Short-term resistance for the dollar index is identified at 98.95-99.00, with significant resistance at 99.15-99.20 [1] - Short-term support levels are noted at 98.55-98.60, with important support at 98.35-98.40 [1] - A trading strategy suggests selling in the range of 99.00-98.35, with a stop loss of 20 points and a target at the lower end of the range [1]