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2025年公募REITs市场11月报:商业不动产REITs可期,基础设施新增“商办城改”-20251202
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Commercial Real Estate REITs Promising, Infrastructure Adds 'Commercial Office and Urban Renewal' - November 2025 Public REITs Market Monthly Report" [2] - Analysts: Peng Wenyu, Zhu Min, Ren Yixuan [3] - Date: December 02, 2025 [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Group 3: Core Views - The future public REITs system in China will consist of infrastructure and commercial real estate. The rules emphasize the "asset - light, operation - heavy" model and the stability of profitability. The infrastructure REITs are expanding, and new asset types are added, but detailed classifications and definitions may need further clarification. [4] - The CSI REITs index continued to fluctuate and consolidate in November, with a slight decline of 0.7%. The market liquidity has been continuously improving, but there is a divergence between price and volume in the consumer REITs. [4] - Since the second half of October 2025, the dividend yields of REITs have been consistently higher than those of long - term bonds and high - dividend stocks. The valuations and IRRs of both equity and concession - based REITs have changed, with the IRRs of both types increasing. [4] - In November, the Dongjiu Industrial Park REIT completed the private placement, and the discount rate was relatively low. The Huaxun Ruchao REIT and the Zhonghang Jingneng Photovoltaic REIT are steadily advancing their expansion plans. [4] - In the first half of December, three REITs will be lifted from限售, and the first tunnel - type REIT has been submitted to the exchange. In the second half of November, the Yinhuashao Water REIT was affected by an emergency, and some REITs have new developments in terms of issuance, expansion, and project progress. [4] Group 4: Summary of Key Sections 1. Commercial Real Estate REITs Promising, Infrastructure Expanding Again - **1.1 REITs Asset Types Continuously Enriching, Stock Revitalization More Anticipated** - On November 28, 2025, the CSRC launched the pilot of commercial real estate REITs, expanding the public REITs market from infrastructure to commercial real estate. The underlying assets may include commercial complexes, retail, offices, and hotels. [10] - On November 27, the NDRC stated that infrastructure REITs would expand to urban renewal facilities, hotels, stadiums, and commercial office facilities. On December 1, the NDRC issued the 2025 version of the industry scope list, adding new types of assets. [10] [14] - **1.2 Commercial Real Estate REITs New Rules Define "Asset - light, Operation - heavy" Path** - The draft announcement on the pilot of commercial real estate REITs includes eight main contents. It clarifies the two types of commercial real estate REITs (equity and concession - based), requires fund managers to actively perform operation and management responsibilities, and the details of the application and review regulations are yet to be finalized. [12] [13] - **1.3 Newly Added Fields: Stadiums/Hotels, Commercial Offices, Urban Renewal** - The 2025 version of the industry list adds new assets to the consumption, commercial office, and urban renewal sectors. It emphasizes risk isolation and promotes the transformation of real - estate enterprises from development to asset management. However, the specific operation paths of the newly added assets need to be clarified. [15] [16] - **1.4 Overseas Commercial REITs Play a Significant Role, China May Have Trillion - level Potential** - As of November 28, commercial real estate REITs in the US accounted for 37% in terms of quantity and 22% in terms of market value. The potential market size of China's commercial real estate REITs is estimated to be between 0.4 - 1.0 trillion yuan. [21] 2. Index Continues to Fluctuate and Consolidate, Market Liquidity Continuously Improving - **2.1 CSI REITs Drops 0.7%, Continues Fluctuating Pattern** - In November 2025, due to the wavering of interest - rate cut expectations and the strengthening of the US dollar, global equities declined. The CSI REITs index had a cumulative decline of 0.7% in November, maintaining a fluctuating pattern since late October. [27] [28] [29] - **2.2.1 Consumer/Transportation/Rental - Housing Yields Turn Positive, Other Assets' Declines Deepen** - In November, the monthly yields of consumer, transportation, and rental - housing REITs turned positive, while the decline of industrial park REITs intensified, and the decline of other assets also deepened compared to October. [30] [33] [34] - **2.2.2 Most Consumer REITs Rise, Some Industrial Park Individual Bonds Drop Over 10%** - In November, the proportion of rising and falling individual REIT bonds was 36% and 64% respectively. Most consumer REITs rose, while some industrial park REITs were severely affected by the lifting of restrictions, with single - month declines exceeding 10%. [36] [38] - **2.3 Market Turnover Rate Improves Marginally for Two Consecutive Months, Consumer REITs Show Price - Volume Divergence** - In November, the overall activity of the Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs markets slightly increased, with an average daily turnover rate of 0.47%. The turnover rates of IDC decreased slightly, while those of rental - housing and industrial park REITs improved significantly. The consumer REITs index led the rise, but the turnover rate decreased slightly. [39] - **2.4 REITs Dividend Yields Have Been Higher than Long - term Bonds and High - Dividend Stocks** - As of November 28, the dividend yields of equity and concession - based REITs were 4.44% and 8.17% respectively. The dividend yields of REITs have been higher than long - term bonds and high - dividend stocks since the second half of October. The dividend yields of some asset types increased, while those of others decreased. [48] - **2.5 Equity and Concession - based Valuations Are at the 74% and 51% Percentiles Respectively** - The latest P/NAV of equity REITs is 1.25X, at the 74% historical percentile, with the industrial park having a relatively low valuation. The latest P/FFO of concession - based REITs is 13.41X, at the 51% historical percentile. [53] - **2.6 Equity and Concession - based IRRs Are 4.0% and 4.4% Respectively** - The latest IRRs of equity and concession - based REITs are 4.0% and 4.4% respectively, both at relatively low historical percentiles but higher than the previous period. The IRRs of some sub - asset types have also increased. [54] [59] 3. Dongjiu Expansion Completed, Ruchao and Jingneng Expansion Progressing Steadily - **3.1 In November, the Anbo Logistics REIT Was Issued, and the Zhongjian投 Shenyang Software Park REIT Was Listed** - As of November 28, 2025, there were 77 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 21.99 billion yuan. In November, the Zhongjian投 Shenyang Software Park REIT was listed, and the Huaxia Anbo Warehouse Logistics REIT was issued offline. [63] - **3.2 From January to November 2025, the Off - line Subscription Yield of 100 million yuan for REITs Is 3.49%** - After excluding extreme values, from January to November 2025, the absolute returns of 50 million yuan and 100 million yuan participating in the off - line subscription of REITs were 1.7443 million yuan and 3.4887 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding off - line yield of 3.49%. [64] - **3.3 Dongjiu Industrial Park REIT Has Completed the Expansion Issuance, Huaxun Ruchao and Zhonghang Jingneng PV REITs Have Initiated Expansion** - In November 2025, the Dongjiu Industrial Park REIT completed the private placement, with an issuance scale of 427.2 million yuan. The Huaxun Ruchao REIT plans to distribute shares to original holders, and the Zhonghang Jingneng PV REIT plans a private placement. [68] [70] - **3.4 Expansion Projects Generally Issue at the Maximum Scale, Dongjiu Industrial Park Has a Low Discount** - Except for some projects, most expansion projects were issued at the announced maximum scale. The Dongjiu Industrial Park REIT had a relatively low discount rate in terms of pricing, with an actual issuance price 5.06% lower than the benchmark price. [78] 4. Three Projects to Be Unlocked, Yinhuashao Water REIT Affected by Emergency - **4.1 Three REITs to Be Unlocked in the First Half of December** - In the first half of December, the Huatai Nanjing Jianye REIT (December 3), the Huaxun Ruchao REIT (December 9), and the Zhongjin Chongqing Liangjiang REIT (December 11) will be unlocked. In the second half of November, 10 REITs announced dividend plans. [83] - **4.2 Yinhuashao Water REIT Affected by Emergency** - The Yinhuashao Water REIT was affected by a water - supply emergency, which will lead to a short - term decrease in water supply and affect the project company's revenue and cash flow. The Southern Runze Technology Data Center REIT changed the investment direction of the recovered funds, and the Dongjiu Industrial Park REIT completed its private placement. [87] 5. Three New Projects Submitted to the Exchange, Including the First Tunnel - Type REIT - **5.1 New Projects Submitted to the Exchange** - As of November 28, there are 12 new issuance projects and 3 expansion projects in the pipeline at the exchange. In the second half of November, the Huaxia Zhonghe Clean Energy REIT replied to the inquiry letter, and the exchange accepted 2 new issuance projects and 1 project was submitted, including the first tunnel - type REIT. [89] [90] - **5.2 Bidding Information: Nanjiang Energy Plans to Issue Public REITs for Its Infrastructure** - In the second half of November 2025, the Nanjiang Energy (Group) Co., Ltd. plans to issue public REITs for its infrastructure and publicly tender for REIT fund managers. [91]
商业不动产投资信托基金试点《公告》(征求意见稿)点评:资产范围新增写字楼和酒店,期待审核流程优化
CMS· 2025-12-01 02:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for the commercial real estate REITs sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The introduction of commercial real estate REITs marks an expansion of the public REITs market in China, moving from infrastructure to commercial real estate, thus enriching the market categories [2][3]. - The asset types within commercial real estate REITs include office buildings and hotels, which are new additions, while also overlapping with existing infrastructure REITs in areas like commercial complexes and retail [3]. - Regulatory oversight for commercial real estate REITs is expected to be led by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), potentially allowing for more flexible review processes regarding asset functionality and compliance [16][17]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The commercial real estate REITs will provide a new exit tool for real estate developers, facilitating a transition from development to asset management [17]. - The report identifies three potential beneficiary directions within the equity market: companies with substantial office and hotel assets, private enterprises with strong operational capabilities, and firms with abundant asset reserves [17]. Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization for public REITs is reported at 219.89 billion yuan [4]. - The report highlights the performance of the REITs index, showing a 12.1% increase over 12 months, despite a -0.9% decline over the past month [6]. Regulatory Environment - The CSRC's role in overseeing commercial real estate REITs suggests a streamlined approval process, which may enhance the operational efficiency of these funds [16]. - The report compares the regulatory frameworks of commercial real estate REITs and infrastructure REITs, noting differences in oversight and application processes [16][17].