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巴比食品(605338):加快收并购,团餐保持良好增长
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-02 04:13
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [6][3]. Core Views - The company is expected to enter an accelerated development phase in 2025, driven by internal expansion, the acquisition of Qinglu, and the growth of the group meal business [3][2]. - The first quarter of 2025 showed a revenue of 370 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.45%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 37 million yuan, a decrease of 6.13% [1][2]. Revenue Summary - The company plans to add 1,000 new stores by 2025, reaching a total of 6,000 stores, with a narrowing gap in single-store performance expected to be more evident in Q2 and Q3 [2][3]. - The group meal business is actively collaborating with clients like Yonghui, which is expected to gradually increase volume [2][3]. Profitability Summary - The gross profit margin stabilized, while the expense ratio decreased, with interest income impacting the non-recurring profit [2]. - The non-recurring net profit margin decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 10.5%, and the net profit margin decreased by 1.3 percentage points [2]. Financial Forecast - Revenue growth rates are projected at 10% for 2025, 9% for 2026, and 8% for 2027, with total revenues expected to be 1.85 billion yuan, 2.01 billion yuan, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be 270 million yuan in 2025, with growth rates of -3.9%, +10.3%, and +11.3% for the following years [3][5]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1.63 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 6.89% [5]. - The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) is expected to be 18X for 2025, 16X for 2026, and 14X for 2027 [3][5].