【导读】相聚资本总经理梁辉：以多资产多策略量化产品，锚定绝对回报！2026年看好三大 方向 中国基金报记者 任子青 明年的宏观环境整体宽松 聚焦AI、大宗商品、出海三大方向 2025年，A股市场上演超预期的结构性特征，行业表现分化明显。梁辉认为，2025年A股上 行的核心驱动力来自估值提升，盈利改善贡献相对较小。 谈及2026年的A股走势，梁辉持谨慎乐观态度。他认为，当前A股估值水平处于历史3/4分位 附近，2026年来自估值的收益或将显著低于2025年，整体盈利增速趋于温和，部分板块会实 现高速增长。明年的A股整体收益或不及今年，但市场大幅回调的风险有限，结构性机会仍是 主线。 在梁辉看来，预计明年的宏观环境整体宽松。从外部环境来看，2026年的外部环境波动会比 2025年小。2026年是美国的"政治大年"，美国中期选举和美联储主席换届，高通胀叠加政 策预期，外部环境相对宽松。从国内情况来看，近期的中央经济工作会议提出，要实施更加 日前，相聚资本总经理梁辉在接受中国基金报记者专访时表示，对2026年A股市场持谨慎乐 观态度。预计2026年宏观环境整体宽松，市场大幅回调风险有限，结构性机会仍是主线，主 要看好 ...

Core Viewpoint - The general manager of Xiangju Capital, Liang Hui, expresses a cautiously optimistic outlook for the A-share market in 2026, anticipating a generally loose macro environment and limited risks of significant market corrections, with structural opportunities remaining the main focus [1][2]. Group 1: Market Outlook - The macro environment for 2026 is expected to be overall loose, with external fluctuations smaller than in 2025, influenced by the U.S. midterm elections and Federal Reserve leadership changes [2][3]. - A-share valuations are currently around the 75th percentile historically, with expected returns from valuations in 2026 likely to be significantly lower than in 2025, while overall profit growth is expected to moderate [2][3]. - Structural opportunities are anticipated to be the main focus in 2026, despite overall returns potentially being lower than in the current year [2][3]. Group 2: Investment Directions - The three main investment directions identified are: 1. The development of the AI industry, with expected growth of 40%-50% in 2026, following a doubling of returns in 2025 [2][3]. 2. The overall value of commodities, particularly copper, which is expected to benefit from increased demand driven by AI and new energy sectors [3]. 3. The export sector, which has strong competitive advantages, although it faces risks from overseas tariff policies and internal competition [3]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Xiangju Capital is optimizing its investment portfolio by diversifying across multiple directions, focusing on AI, commodities, and exports, while concentrating on individual stock selection [3][4]. - The company emphasizes the importance of asset allocation as a "free lunch" in investment markets, aiming to smooth volatility through a combination of low-correlation assets and strategies [4][5]. - The long-term goal is to achieve absolute returns by integrating active investment experience with quantitative strategies, covering core asset categories including stocks, bonds, and commodities [5][6].