1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - **External Market**: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - **Related Information**: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - **External Market Changes**: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - **Important Information**: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - **Position Suggestion**: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - **External Market**: Not provided. - **Related Information**: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - **Logic Analysis**: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - **External Market Changes**: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - **Important Information**: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - **Related Information**: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - **Logic Analysis**: Not provided. - **Strategy Suggestion**: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - **Important Information**: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - **Important Information**: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - **Trading Logic**: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - **Important Information**: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - **Trading Logic**: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - **External Market Impact**: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - **Important Information**: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - **Trading Logic**: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - WTI crude oil prices fell to $65.76 and Brent to $68.28, both down over 2% due to OPEC+ increasing production by 550,000 barrels per day, completing its reduction exit plan a year early, leading to a historical oversupply of 800,000 barrels per day [3] - Geopolitical tensions, such as potential U.S. tariffs on Russian oil purchased by India, are seen as ineffective in significantly impacting oil supply, with analysts skeptical about the actual enforcement of sanctions [3] - The oil price is expected to stabilize between $65-$70 in Q3, with a potential drop to $55 in Q4 due to cumulative effects of OPEC production increases and seasonal demand decline [3] Group 2: Copper Market Surge - LME copper prices increased by 0.6% following a tariff exemption from Trump, leading to a surge in inventory in New York by 400,000 tons, while Asian stocks dwindled to a 10-day warning level [4] - A mining accident in Chile has eliminated 25% of a major company's production capacity, contributing to a global copper inventory drop to 350,000 tons, creating a potential short squeeze in the market [4] - Long-term demand for copper is expected to rise significantly due to electric vehicles and renewable energy, with Goldman Sachs predicting copper prices to exceed $10,050 per ton by August and a supply gap of 3 million tons by 2030 [4] Group 3: Gold Price Stability - Spot gold prices rose by 0.4%, with futures reaching $3,426, supported by expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve due to disappointing U.S. employment data [5] - The probability of a rate cut in September has surged to 94%, which typically drives investment towards safe-haven assets like gold [5] - The Federal Reserve's internal changes and signals of accelerated rate cuts have reinforced bullish sentiment for gold, with technical support seen at $3,400-$3,450 [5] Group 4: Investment Strategies - For oil, a strategy is to target upstream oil service companies and refining leaders if prices hit $55 in Q4, capitalizing on equipment upgrades and margin expansion [6] - In copper, focus on resource companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, which are less volatile than pure futures trading [7] - For gold, a dollar-cost averaging strategy into gold ETFs and mining stocks is recommended, increasing positions by 3% on price dips before the Fed's rate cut [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PMI data fell short of expectations, and stainless steel showed a weak and volatile trend. The nickel market also had a weak performance, with the nickel futures contract showing a decline and the stainless - steel futures contract also under pressure [1][4]. - In the nickel market, although the refined nickel spot had some support, the supply - surplus pattern remained. The stainless - steel market faced downward pressure with a decline in spot trading volume and cooling downstream purchasing sentiment [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 121,050 yuan/ton and closed at 119,830 yuan/ton, a - 1.79% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 143,818 lots, and the open interest was 97,451 lots [1]. - The main nickel contract 2509 was weak and volatile throughout the day, with a decrease in trading volume and a slight increase in open interest compared to the previous day. The short - term downward momentum was accumulating, and the 117,000 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [2]. - In the spot market, the prices of major brands of refined nickel decreased. The spot price provided support to the futures price, with the premium of Jinchuan nickel changing to 2,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel remaining at 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans at - 450 yuan/ton. The previous day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 21,705 (- 54.0) tons, and LME nickel inventories were 208,692 ( + 600) tons [2]. Strategy - Given the cooling market sentiment and the supply - surplus pattern, the expected upper range was 123,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 117,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. For trading strategies, only single - side range trading was proposed, while cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [3]. Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the main stainless - steel contract 2509 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,805 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 147,342 lots, and the open interest was 94,448 lots [3]. - The main stainless - steel contract was weak and volatile, with a decrease in both trading volume and open interest compared to the previous day. The 13,100 yuan/ton level was considered a short - term resistance, and the 12,400 yuan/ton level was expected to be a strong support in the medium and long term [4]. - In the spot market, the prices in Foshan decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the trading volume declined. The nickel - iron market price also decreased, and it was expected to remain stable in the short term. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan were both 13,000 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 250 - 450 yuan/ton [4]. Strategy - Since the main stainless - steel contract formed a bottom - divergence structure at 12,400 yuan/ton, it was waiting to break through the 120 - day moving - average resistance. The expected upper range was around 13,100 yuan/ton, and the lower range was 12,400 - 12,500 yuan/ton. Short - term range trading was recommended. The single - side trading strategy was neutral, and cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading were not recommended [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential rebound of gold prices following a significant drop on July 31, influenced by strong ADP data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, indicating a shift in market sentiment towards gold [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - The US dollar index has risen for five consecutive days, approaching the 100 mark, suggesting a high risk for short positions as negative news has already been priced in [1]. - Gold prices are currently supported by the weekly MA20 moving average and daily support levels around the 3270-3280 range, indicating a potential stabilization [1]. - If gold prices can effectively break through the resistance zone of 3320-3330, there is potential for upward movement towards the 3360 level; otherwise, prices may remain within the 3270-3320 range [1]. Group 2: Trading Recommendations - A trading strategy is suggested to buy gold in the range of 3285-3280, with a stop loss at 3373 and a target price of 3315 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 29th, glass and soda ash prices were weak. The recent significant price fluctuations of glass and soda ash are the result of intense industry and capital games. The previous upward trend was mainly affected by their own supply disturbances and the expected coal supply disturbances. The market has been trading on the anti - involution logic, with strong bullish sentiment for commodities. The futures prices of glass and soda ash have risen significantly driven by supply and cost increases. The limit - down on the 28th was also affected by market sentiment, with intense capital games and multiple varieties hitting the limit - down, including glass and soda ash. [2] - Recently, the fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not ideal, but under strong expectations, their prices are likely to rise due to capital influence. [2] Group 3: Market Analysis - The fundamentals of glass and soda ash are still not good recently, but due to strong expectations, prices are easily driven up by capital. [2] Group 4: Trading Strategy - Buy call options on dips. [2] Group 5: Futures Data Summary Soda Ash Futures | Contract | 1 - month | 5 - month | 9 - month | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price | 1313 | 1368 | 1188 | | Change | 13 | 34 | - 35 | | Change Rate | 1.0% | 2.55% | - 2.86% | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Closing | - 55 | | | | 5 - 9 Price Difference Change | - 21 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Closing | 180 | | | | 1 - 5 Price Difference Change | 69 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Closing | - 125 | | | | 9 - 1 Price Difference Change | - 48 | | | | Spot Price (East China) | 1250 | | | | Main Contract Basis | 122 | | | [1] Glass Futures (Not fully presented in the data, only spot price information) | Spot Region | Spot Price | | --- | --- | | East China | 1350 | | South | 1320 | | Northwest | 11020 | [1]

Report Overview - This is a black metal research report released by the Commodity Research Institute on July 29, 2025, covering steel, coking coal and coke, iron ore, and ferroalloys [3][7][12] Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating Core Viewpoints - The steel market lacks price drivers and follows raw material trends in the short term. The trading logic of coking coal and coke may shift to fundamental factors, with short - term downward adjustment space for coking coal prices. Iron ore prices are expected to remain high, and the ferroalloy market is affected by the coking coal market [4][11][17] Summary by Category Steel - **Related Information**: Trump may impose 15% - 20% tariffs on imports from countries without separate trade agreements with the US. In H1 2025, China completed 1.6474 trillion yuan in transportation fixed - asset investment. Shanghai rebar is 3390 yuan/ton (-40), Beijing rebar is 3300 yuan/ton (-60), Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3440 yuan/ton (-60), and Tianjin hot - rolled coil is 3380 yuan/ton (-60) [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector oscillated weakly at night. Steel production cuts slowed, rebar destocked while hot - rolled coil stocked up. Steel exports remained high, but hot - rolled apparent demand declined in July. The market sentiment improved, but steel may lack price drivers and follow raw material trends. If over - production checks are implemented, steel prices may rise. The exchange's coking coal position limit may lead to steel price adjustments [4] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Steel will oscillate, and long positions are advised to be closed. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [5][6][8] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: On July 28, the auction price of coking coal in Lvliang and Linfen decreased. Shanxi Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke (wet - quenched) warehouse receipt is 1435 yuan/ton, etc. [9][10] - **Logic Analysis**: After the sentiment cools down, the trading logic may shift to fundamentals. The short - term supply - demand gap of coking coal may ease, and there is short - term downward adjustment space for prices. Mid - term, focus on over - production checks and inventory release [11][13] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Coking coal prices may adjust downward in the short term, with intense market competition. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see. Spot - futures: Wait and see [14] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On July 28, China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. Trump may impose tariffs. From July 21 - 27, China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals were 23.197 million tons, a decrease of 1.921 million tons. Qingdao Port PB powder is 770 yuan/ton (-12) [15] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices oscillated at night. The market sentiment cooled due to coking coal price drops. Supply from mainstream mines is in a seasonal low, and non - mainstream mine shipments are high. Iron ore demand remains resilient. Current prices are at a reasonable level, and short - term prices are expected to remain high [17] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: High - level operation. Arbitrage: Wait and see. Options: Wait and see [18] Ferroalloys Silicon Iron - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate average price is 35 yuan/ton - degree. A Jiangsu steel mill set the 75B silicon iron purchase price at 6170 yuan/ton, up 600 yuan/ton [19] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, silicon iron spot prices were weak. Supply increased with price rises, and demand was supported by steel production. The coking coal market adjustment affected market sentiment, and long positions are advised to be closed [20] Manganese Silicon - **Related Information**: On July 28, Tianjin Port semi - carbonate price increased by 0.1 yuan/ton - degree [21] - **Logic Analysis**: On July 28, manganese ore spot prices were strong, and manganese silicon spot prices were weak. Supply increased, demand was supported by steel profits, and the coking coal adjustment affected sentiment. Long positions are advised to be closed [23] - **Trading Strategies**: Unilateral: Close long positions due to coking coal impact. Arbitrage: Close long - silicon - iron short - manganese - silicon positions, and consider spot - futures positive arbitrage at low basis. Options: Wait and see [24]

Report Overview - Report Date: July 29, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Contact Information: 0575 - 85226759 - Report Type: Rapeseed Meal Morning Report 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2509 is expected to oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - The spot market supply - tightness expectation has improved due to the peak season of domestic aquaculture and the listing of domestic rapeseed, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal oscillates and falls back, affected by soybean meal trends and technical consolidation. Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant. The short - term market will maintain range - bound oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the supply - tightness expectation in the spot market, while the demand side maintains a good expectation [11]. - The annual output of Canadian rapeseed has decreased slightly, supporting the overseas futures market. China has imposed additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes, and the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still ongoing, with the future result uncertain [11]. - The global rapeseed output has decreased slightly this year, mainly due to the decrease in EU rapeseed output and the lower - than - expected output in Canada [11]. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues. The decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed output and the increase in Russian rapeseed output offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **Likely to be Bullish**: China's additional tariffs on Canadian rapeseed oil and oil residue cakes; low inventory pressure of oil - mill rapeseed meal [12]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The listing of domestic rapeseed in June; the uncertainty of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports and the seasonal off - peak demand for rapeseed meal [13]. - **Current Main Logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [13]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Sheets**: The report provides the supply - demand balance sheets of domestic rapeseed and rapeseed meal from 2014 to 2023, including data such as harvest area, output, inventory, and consumption [25][26]. - **Price and Transaction Data**: From July 17th to July 28th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2929 - 2990 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 8.35 - 21.13 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal fluctuated between 2580 - 2640 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 0 - 99 million tons [14]. - **Inventory Data**: Rapeseed meal inventory is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week compared to last week's 0.46 million tons and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year compared to 3.6 million tons in the same period last year [9]. - **Import Data**: The arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly [27]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions in rapeseed meal increased, and funds flowed out [9]. 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Rapeseed meal RM2509 will oscillate within the range of 2600 - 2660. Influenced by the low inventory of imported rapeseed and the tariff increase on Canadian oil residue cakes by China, the price rose and then fell. Driven by soybean meal, the price will return to range - bound oscillation in the short term [9]. - **Analysis of Influencing Factors**: - **Fundamentals**: Low oil - mill开机 rates and low inventories support the market. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal spot is in the peak season. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed increases, the short - term inventory pressure of oil mills is not significant [9]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 2580 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 80, indicating a discount to the futures price [9]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of rapeseed meal is 1.51 million tons, an increase of 228% week - on - week and a decrease of 58.06% year - on - year [9]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day moving average but moving upwards [9]. - **Main Position**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere of bulk chemical products is strong, and the PTA market has risen. However, the spot market basis has weakened due to the PTA main supplier's shipments and the weakening of the quoted basis. The PTA processing fee has entered a low - range, and new device production expectations on the supply side and the off - season on the demand side make it difficult for unplanned device overhauls to boost prices. The polyester industry chain is driven by fundamentals, with weakening supply - demand expectations leading to a full - line price decline. PTA will move in a volatile manner, with cost being the dominant factor [2]. - In the short term, after the release of emotions, the market will generally follow cost fluctuations. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On July 25, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $65.16 per barrel, down 1.32% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.07%; the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $580.50 per ton, up 0.76%; the spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB Korea) was $720.50 per ton, up 0.70% [1]. - **PTA**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,936 yuan per ton, up 1.77% from the previous value; the settlement price was 4,902 yuan per ton, up 1.83%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4,894 yuan per ton, up 1.66% [1]. - **PX**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 7,062 yuan per ton, up 1.52% from the previous value; the settlement price was 7,022 yuan per ton, up 1.74%. The spot price of p - xylene in the domestic market was 6,840 yuan per ton, up 1.76% [1]. - **PR**: On July 25, 2025, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,130 yuan per ton, up 1.46% from the previous value; the settlement price was 6,088 yuan per ton, up 1.16%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 6,080 yuan per ton, up 1.25% [1]. - **Downstream**: On July 25, 2025, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,600 yuan per ton, up 0.23% from the previous value; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,950 yuan per ton, up 1.02% [2]. Supply - related Information - **Device Information**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA device of Dongying United was under maintenance from June 28 for 40 - 45 days. The 2 - million - ton PTA device of Yisheng Hainan is expected to undergo technical transformation for 3 months starting from August 1 [2]. - **Inventory and Market Situation**: Currently, PX inventory is at a historical low, and the domestic PX is in a destocking cycle. PTA will have new device production in the third quarter, which is misaligned with PX in terms of time [2]. Demand - related Information - **Industry Operating Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 77.29%, unchanged from the previous value; the PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.59%, unchanged; the load rate of polyester factories was 87.01%, unchanged [1]. - **Sales Rate**: On July 25, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 29%, down 15 percentage points from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 78%, up 10 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 130%, up 44 percentage points [1]. Market Analysis and Strategy - **PX**: This week, the PX price rose after a stalemate, with the absolute price on Friday up 4.2% to $874 per ton CFR compared to the previous period. The weekly average price rebounded slightly, up 1.2% to $851 per ton CFR. Whether the PX profit can continue to rise depends on more unexpected factors. Currently, due to the off - season of polyester consumption and the significant decline in PTA processing fees, there is a strong expectation of a decline in downstream operating rates [2]. - **PTA**: In the third quarter, PTA will have new device production, and the current PTA processing fee is in a low - range. The polyester factories actually carried out maintenance in July, and the operating rate decreased significantly compared to June. Attention should be paid to whether the rumors of several PTA device overhauls in early August will be realized [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Affected by the anti - involution trend, bulk commodities are strong. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,936 yuan per ton (up 2.53%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.2 million lots; the PX2509 contract closed at 7,062 yuan per ton (up 2.32%), with an intraday trading volume of 190,000 lots; the PR2509 contract closed at 6,130 yuan per ton (up 1.86%), with an intraday trading volume of 62,600 lots. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will operate in a volatile manner [2].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance - This week, the prices of domestic oil futures fluctuated and consolidated. The Y2509 soybean oil contract closed at 8,144 yuan/ton, down 0.20%; the P2509 palm oil contract closed at 8,936 yuan/ton, down 0.31%; and the OI2509 rapeseed oil contract closed at 9,457 yuan/ton, down 1.35% [5][30]. 2. Important Information Palm Oil - The president of the Indonesian Palm Oil Association (GAPKI) said that Indonesia's palm oil exports in 2025 may fall from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons, while the production of crude palm oil is expected to increase to 50 million tons, up from 48.2 million tons last year [6][30]. - Malaysian palm oil prices fell 0.93%. The export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from July 1 - 25 was 896,484 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.22% [6][30]. Soybean Oil - As of July 20, the flowering rate of US soybeans was 62% (47% last week, 63% last year, and a historical average of 63%), and the good - to - excellent rate was 68% (70% a week ago, 68% last year). US soybeans fell 1.28% this week [7][30]. 3. Spot Analysis - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 8,310 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at an average level compared to the past five years [9]. - As of July 25, 2025, the spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 9,000 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [10]. - As of July 24, 2025, the spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,540 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [12]. 4. Other Data - As of July 23, 2025, the national soybean oil inventory increased by 59,000 tons to 1.237 million tons, and the national commercial palm oil inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 569,000 tons [16]. - As of July 24, 2025, the port's imported soybean inventory was 6,756,740 tons [19]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang was 144 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [20][21]. - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 48 yuan/ton, down 76 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, at a relatively low level compared to the past five years [23]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - This week, some domestic commodities rose significantly under the policy stimulus, but the oil futures prices remained stable and fluctuated. The supply - demand fundamentals of the Malaysian palm oil market are weak, lacking the impetus for active price increases [31]. - From the arrival schedule of soybeans in China, the arrival of soybeans from July to September is sufficient, and factories will continue to maintain high - volume crushing. The operating rate of key domestic oil mills remains high, with sufficient soybean oil supply, general downstream demand, and a rapid increase in domestic oil inventories. It is more likely that domestic oils will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [8][31].

Group 1 - The ETF market opened with mixed performance, with the Huabao Sci-Tech AI ETF (589520) leading the gains at 1.92% [1] - The Sci-Tech Board AI ETF (588930) increased by 1.72%, while the Guotai Sci-Tech Chip ETF (589100) rose by 1.54% [1] - The Energy and Chemical ETF (159981) experienced the largest decline at 3.63%, followed by the Coal ETF (515220) down 2.24%, and the Commodity ETF (510170) falling by 1.57% [1]