Hot News - Two large aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE were attacked by Iran, which may impact the global aluminum supply chain as the Middle East accounts for about 10% of global aluminum exports [2] - From April 22 (the night trading session on April 21), QFIIs and RQFIIs can trade 20 - rubber and international copper option contracts [2] - Houthi rebels in Yemen launched military operations against Israel, and the military actions will continue, exposing the Bab - el - Mandeb Strait to risks [2] - Thailand's Prime Minister said that Thai oil tankers can safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz according to the agreement with Iran [2] - Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister said that Pakistan is facilitating peace talks between the US and Iran, and four foreign ministers' meeting decided to form a committee to work out a conflict - resolution plan [3] Plate Performance Key Focus - Urea, lithium carbonate, low - sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, PP [4] Night - trading Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.63%, precious metals 24.72%, oilseeds and fats 8.99%, soft commodities 2.57%, non - ferrous metals 23.16%, coal, coke and steel ore 10.04%, energy 7.77%, chemicals 16.03%, grains 1.08%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.00% [4] Plate Position - The chart shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days from March 23 to March 27, 2026 [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63% daily, - 5.99% monthly, - 1.39% annually; S&P 500 fell - 1.67% daily, - 7.41% monthly, - 6.96% annually, etc. [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures fell - 0.01% daily, - 0.15% monthly, 0.35% annually; 5 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.03% daily, 0% monthly, 0.23% annually [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index rose 1.93% daily, 17.99% monthly, 23.47% annually; WTI crude oil rose 6.37% daily, 49.49% monthly, 74.78% annually [6] Others - US Dollar Index rose 0.26% daily, 2.59% monthly, 1.94% annually; CBOE Volatility Index rose 13.16% daily, 56.34% monthly, 107.69% annually [6] Stock Market Risk Preference and Major Commodity Trends - The document presents the trends of BDI, CRB Spot Index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME copper, etc., as well as the ratios of gold - to - oil and copper - to - gold, and risk premiums of stocks [7]

Core Insights - The global asset pricing logic is changing under the backdrop of high oil prices, high inflation, and high interest rates, with U.S. Treasury yields becoming more sensitive to inflation and supply factors [2] - The long-term interest rate is facing upward pressure, while gold retains its allocation value in an inflationary and uncertain environment [2] - The U.S. dollar is supported by safe-haven demand in the short term but faces adjustment pressure in the medium term due to fiscal constraints and reserve diversification [2] - The attractiveness of RMB assets is expected to increase as China distances itself from conflict-prone areas and maintains policy space [2] - A-shares are influenced by external disturbances but still present structural opportunities in sectors like power equipment and high-end manufacturing [2] - Hong Kong stocks are more affected by foreign capital flows and exhibit higher volatility, but their attractiveness for medium to long-term capital is increasing due to low valuations [2] Section Summaries 1. U.S.-Iran Conflict Dynamics - The U.S.-Iran conflict has escalated into a prolonged confrontation, impacting global energy supply and prices, with Brent crude oil prices rising significantly [6][7] - The conflict has led to increased military spending by the U.S., with costs exceeding $10 billion related to Iran, contributing to the rapid expansion of U.S. federal debt [15] 2. U.S. Federal Reserve's Hawkish Shift Amid High Energy Prices - The Federal Reserve has signaled a significant reduction in rate cut expectations, with most officials supporting only one rate cut in 2026 [8][12] - Inflation forecasts have been revised upward, with the core PCE inflation expected to rise to 4.0% [8][12] 3. U.S. Treasury Debt Outlook - U.S. federal debt has surpassed $40 trillion, with rapid growth driven by persistent fiscal deficits and military spending related to geopolitical tensions [15][19] - Interest payments on the debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [19] 4. Asset Class Changes Under Re-Inflation Narrative - The core logic of global asset pricing is shifting towards a framework of multiple constraints, including high energy costs and inflation persistence [32] - The traditional safe-haven role of U.S. Treasuries is weakening as inflation and supply factors dominate market dynamics [34] - Gold is expected to benefit from its dual role as a hedge against inflation and a currency alternative [34] 5. Structural Changes in Asset Pricing - The current asset pricing system is undergoing a fundamental reconfiguration, with energy costs, fiscal constraints, and credit stability becoming central [41] - Assets with supply security and credit stability characteristics, such as gold and energy, are likely to gain new premium sources [41]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that the narrative surrounding the Iran conflict in the commodity market is predominantly focused on oil prices, but it also highlights the significant impact on other commodities, particularly fertilizers and natural gas [3][4]. - Fertilizers are crucial for global food supply, with synthetic fertilizers supporting approximately half of the world's population. A complete halt in synthetic fertilizer production could only sustain about 4 billion people, while the current global population exceeds 8 billion [4][5]. - Natural gas is a core raw material for fertilizer production, with approximately 36 mmBTU of natural gas required to produce one ton of ammonia, which is then converted into urea, the most widely used nitrogen fertilizer [5][7]. Group 2 - Fertilizer plants are typically located near abundant and cheap natural gas supplies, such as in the Middle East and Russia. The transportation costs of natural gas are prohibitively high, making local production more economical [7]. - The closure of the Strait of Hormuz would severely disrupt the fertilizer market, as there are no strategic reserves for fertilizers, unlike oil. Approximately 45% of urea and 20% of ammonia are exported from countries along the Persian Gulf [7][8]. - The article discusses the limited alternatives for fertilizer supply, with China being a key player. If China resumes exports, prices may decrease; otherwise, they could rise to the next cost level [8][9]. Group 3 - Farmers in major agricultural countries like the US, Australia, India, and Thailand face tough choices due to fertilizer shortages, which could impact crop yields and food prices, thereby influencing inflation [9]. - The article outlines four potential responses from farmers: reducing fertilizer use, switching to crops that require less nitrogen, mixing different fertilizers, or ceasing cultivation altogether [9]. - The article also highlights the differences in the natural gas market compared to oil, noting that natural gas lacks a unified global price due to high transportation costs, leading to fragmented regional markets [12][13]. Group 4 - The attack on the Shah gas field in the UAE, a significant source of sulfur, could further impact fertilizer production, as sulfur is a key ingredient in sulfuric acid used in fertilizers [19]. - The article suggests that the complexities of the commodity market mean that disruptions in one area can have cascading effects on others, illustrating the interconnectedness of global supply chains [21].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating operation" [2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to the weekly fundamental data and the downstream demand situation, and the rebound height is limited [1][2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Steel Export - In February 2026, China exported 4.63 million tons of steel sheets, a year - on - year decrease of 12.6%; from January to February, the cumulative export was 9.33 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 14.5% [1] Steel Production Cost and Profit - This week, after the blast furnace maintenance in Tangshan's mainstream sample steel mills ended, the cost decreased. The ex - factory price of common billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, and the steel mills were on the verge of profit and loss with reduced losses [1] - On March 18, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,403 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton, and the average profit loss was 86 yuan/ton [1] Automobile Market - From March 1 - 15, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 0.561 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 21% and a month - on - month increase of 2%. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have been 3.14 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 19% [1] Steel Price Support Factors - Recently, the rise in raw materials has provided cost - side support for steel prices, and the rise of the black metal sector is also driven by inflation in the overall commodity market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The coking coal market showed an oscillating downward trend. The price of coking coal opened high and closed low, with a decline of over 1% in the afternoon. The fundamentals of coal are weak and it is difficult to rebound significantly. The recent demand situation will affect the subsequent long - short logic [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal opened high and closed low, with a decline of over 1% in the afternoon. The customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal decreased marginally, while the domestic coal production resumption continued. The domestic mine operation rate reached 87.16%, a 4.84% increase from last week. Production and operation are both higher than the same period last year. Due to the impact of overseas military conflicts, the coking coal price increased, leading to an increase in the downstream purchasing sentiment. The coking coal inventory decreased by 8.58 tons compared to last week. Downstream coking enterprises and steel mills replenished stocks, with inventory increases of 19.98 tons and 1.99 tons respectively. However, there is no significant increase in coke production. The profitability of steel mills has recovered, with an increase in operation rate of 0.63%, but the start - up speed is weaker than the same period in previous years. The weekly daily output of molten iron is 221.2 tons. After the first round of coke price cut, the production enthusiasm of coking enterprises weakened. The downstream mainly purchases for rigid - demand production. The Henan Bureau of the National Mine Safety Administration ordered Anyang Yong'an Hetuo Coal Mine Co., Ltd. to suspend production for rectification for 1 day due to major accident hazards. Commodities as a whole showed a correction today, and the Middle East situation is expected to fluctuate. [1] Spot Data - The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 primary coking raw coal is 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in Jiexiu is 1300 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract is 1156.5 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi is 143.5 yuan/ton, a 39.5 - yuan increase from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From March 6th to March 13th, the operation rate of 523 domestic sample mines for coking coal was 87.16%, a 4.84 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The daily average output of refined coking coal was 77.7 tons, a 2.92 - ton increase from the previous week [4] Demand Data - From March 6th to March 13th, the daily average output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.9 tons, a 0.4 - ton decrease from the previous week. The daily average coke output of 247 steel mills was 47 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills was 221.2 tons, a 6.39 - ton decrease from the previous week [5]

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential impact of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global oil markets, suggesting that shipping rates may increase further due to this disruption [4] - It highlights significant improvements in the economic performance of the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating a positive trend in this sector [4] - The article raises questions about the broader implications for the global oil market if the Strait of Hormuz is cut off, emphasizing the strategic importance of this shipping route [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report Core View - The pulp market is expected to fluctuate, with intraday fluctuations mainly driven by futures market sentiment and fund behavior. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the persistence of the overall trend of crude oil and commodities, changes in the purchasing rhythm of downstream paper mills, and fund trends [4][5]. - In the short - term, the price of the household paper market may be range - bound, and it is necessary to focus on changes in raw material pulp prices and the release rhythm of orders on the demand side [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The daily - session closing price of pulp's main contract was 5,300 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan from the previous day; the night - session closing price was 5,320 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan. The trading volume increased by 245,073 lots to 528,134 lots, while the open interest decreased by 14,163 lots to 235,171 lots. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 9,115 tons to 163,436 tons, and the net position of the top 20 members decreased by 10,174 lots to - 44,935 lots [3]. - **Spread Data**: The basis of "Silver Star - futures main contract" was 50, up 72 from the previous day; the basis of "Goldfish - futures main contract (non - standard)" was - 700, up 22. The monthly spread of SP03 - SP05 was - 28, up 34 [3]. - **Spot Market**: Among coniferous pulp, the domestic price of Northwood and Cariboo was 5,600 yuan/ton; the price of Moon was 5,250 yuan/ton; the price of Silver Star was 2,350 yuan/ton, and its international price was 710 US dollars/ton. Among broad - leaf pulp, the price of Golden Island, Star, and other varieties ranged from 4,500 - 4,600 yuan/ton, and the international price of Star was 620 US dollars/ton. The price of chemical mechanical pulp (Kunhe) was 3,800 yuan/ton, and the price of natural color pulp (Venus) was 4,850 yuan/ton with an international price of 620 US dollars/ton [3]. - **Trend Intensity**: The pulp trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]. 3.2 Industry News - Yesterday, pulp futures rose following the general upward trend in the commodity market due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices at the opening. However, the price on the disk fell in the afternoon, and the capital sentiment quickly ebbed. In the spot market, the price of coniferous pulp fluctuated more after rising and then falling with the futures disk, while the price of broad - leaf pulp remained stable. Downstream paper mills mostly adopted a wait - and - see attitude, and the market sentiment became more cautious [4]. - The price of the household paper market remained stable, with little improvement in the overall trading atmosphere. The cost support of raw material pulp was limited, and the terminal demand was tepid. Some paper enterprises faced shipment pressure, and the inventory reduction process slowed down [5].

Core Viewpoint - The forum highlighted investment opportunities in the context of a low interest rate environment, emphasizing the importance of asset allocation for both institutions and individuals [2]. Group 1: Investment Themes - The first investment theme focuses on the opportunities in financial technology and brokerage firms driven by the influx of retail funds into the market due to a low interest rate environment [4]. - The second theme anticipates a valuation recovery in the insurance sector starting in early 2026, particularly for companies with strong asset management and improving fundamentals [4]. - The third theme revolves around the digital RMB, supported by national development initiatives, which is expected to enhance banking system transformation, payment terminal upgrades, and increase service fees in the banking IT and third-party payment sectors [4]. Group 2: Banking Sector Outlook - The 2026 outlook for the banking sector suggests that government bond yields may enter a narrow fluctuation range, potentially reducing the volatility of banks' fair value gains and losses [5]. - The trend of "deposit migration" continues, primarily driven by the maturity of existing three-year and longer-term deposits, with a significant portion flowing into wealth management products [7]. - Stock selection for 2026 is expected to focus on companies with anticipated earnings growth, banks with convertible bond expectations, and a diversified approach to dividend stocks that balances yield certainty with asset quality stability [7]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Development - The government emphasizes stabilizing the real estate market as a top priority, with a focus on improving living standards and integrating housing policies with population growth strategies [10]. - Demand-side policies are expected to continue evolving, particularly in major cities, with adjustments to purchase restrictions and support for first-time homebuyers and families with multiple children [10]. - On the supply side, the current policy aims to reduce inventory, encouraging the revitalization of existing properties and accelerating the renovation of dilapidated housing to enhance living conditions [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The third oil war has broken out, and the market is concerned about the potential impact on oil supply and prices due to the tense situation in the Middle East [3] - The A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 40 points, and the 5 - minute small - cycle is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning [6] - Gold is in a volatile and slightly bullish trend in the large - scale view [8] - The iron ore market has a supply surplus in the medium - long term, and the terminal demand needs time to start, with an unclear trend and should be viewed as a volatile market [10][11] - The glass market is in a seasonal off - season, with factory inventories accumulating, and the trend is unclear, to be viewed as a wide - range volatile market [14][15] - The methanol market is significantly affected by Iranian sources, as about 60% of China's 1400 - million - ton methanol imports come from Iran, and the influence weight on the domestic market is about 50% [16] - The pulp market has a general trading sentiment, with port inventories accumulating, and the futures market is in a range - bound consolidation state [19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Geopolitical Impact on Oil Market - The US will provide naval escort and political risk insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz to stabilize energy prices. After the domestic crude oil hit the third daily limit on Tuesday night, the increase narrowed to less than 7% on Wednesday, but it still hit the daily limit again in the afternoon [3] - If the Strait of Hormuz is continuously closed, the potential reduction of crude oil supply from Iraq and Kuwait may reach 3.3 million barrels per day on the eighth day of the Middle East conflict, and may rise to 4.7 million barrels per day on the 18th day if the closure is long - term [3] - If the Strait of Hormuz is completely closed, the storage capacity of seven Middle Eastern countries can only maintain production for "no more than 25 days", and then forced production cuts will occur. Banks like Citigroup and Goldman Sachs predict that oil prices will start from $100 [4] - The rise in international oil prices has caused concerns about stagflation in the South Korean market. South Korea imports 70% of its oil from the Middle East, and a 10% increase in oil prices may push up its inflation by 0.6%. The Bank of Korea is expected to remain cautious and not rush to raise interest rates [3] Technical Analysis of Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The A - share market showed a trend of rising and then falling, with the Shanghai Composite Index dropping 40 points. Technically, the 5 - minute small - cycle is expected to have a repair requirement tomorrow morning, and the early - morning rebound is a good opportunity to short [5][6] - **Gold**: Gold opened lower and fluctuated throughout the day, and is still considered to be in a volatile and slightly bullish trend in the large - scale view [8] - **Iron Ore**: The supply from Australia and Brazil is normal, and there is a long - term supply surplus expectation. The terminal demand needs time to start, and the trend is unclear, to be viewed as a volatile market [10][11] - **Glass**: In the seasonal off - season, the daily melting is slightly reduced, and the factory inventories are accumulating. The trend is unclear, and it should be viewed as a wide - range volatile market [14][15] - **Methanol**: China imports about 14 million tons of methanol per year, accounting for just over 10% of the total consumption. About 60% of the imports come from Iran, and the influence weight on the domestic market is about 50%, so any change in Iran will cause obvious fluctuations in the domestic market [16] - **Pulp**: The pulp spot market has a general trading sentiment, with port inventories continuing to accumulate. After the holiday, the port inventories need time to be digested. Some paper mills have issued price increase letters, and the futures market is in a range - bound consolidation state [19]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Macro Scoring Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic factors to provide timing views on various asset classes, such as bonds, equities, and commodities, based on macroeconomic conditions[19] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model incorporates multiple macroeconomic factors, including domestic and global cycles, monetary policies, credit conditions, inflation, and financial stress. - Each factor is scored, and the scores are aggregated to form a comprehensive macroeconomic score. - The aggregated score is then used to derive timing views for asset classes like Chinese 10-year government bonds, S&P 500, gold, crude oil, and copper[19][21] - **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a systematic approach to assess macroeconomic conditions and their impact on asset allocation, offering a structured framework for decision-making[19] 2. Model Name: US Equity Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model monitors the US equity market by analyzing economic fundamentals and cyclical trends to predict medium-term market movements[20] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model includes sub-indicators such as economic sentiment, capital flows, and financial stress. - These sub-indicators are evaluated based on their rolling 5-year percentile values. - Historical data analysis shows that when the economic sentiment indicator is above 50, the likelihood of sustained market downturns is minimal, except in extreme cases like early 2020[20][24] - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures medium-term trends in the US equity market, providing valuable insights for timing investment decisions[20] 3. Model Name: Gold Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model evaluates the short-term and medium-term investment value of gold by considering geopolitical risks and macroeconomic factors[23] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a gold timing indicator, which is calculated based on factors such as geopolitical risks, fiscal deficits, and the US dollar's creditworthiness. - The latest value of the gold timing indicator is -0.34, showing a slight improvement from the previous month[23][26] - **Model Evaluation**: The model highlights gold's short-term hedging value against geopolitical risks but suggests a weakening medium-term investment logic due to improving US economic fundamentals[23] 4. Model Name: Crude Oil Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: This model assesses the investment value of crude oil by analyzing its supply-demand fundamentals and geopolitical risks[27] - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses a crude oil sentiment index, which is derived from supply-demand dynamics and geopolitical factors. - The latest reading of the crude oil sentiment index is -0.01, remaining below the neutral level of 0[27][29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model indicates a cautious outlook for crude oil, emphasizing that its supply-demand fundamentals do not currently support a sustained price increase, despite its hedging value against geopolitical risks[27] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Macro Scoring Model - **February Return**: -0.2% - **1-Year Return**: 11.9% - **Maximum Drawdown**: 2.7%[4][28][30] 2. US Equity Timing Model - **Economic Sentiment Indicator**: Rolling 5-year percentile at 60, indicating a supportive environment for US equities[20][24] 3. Gold Timing Model - **Gold Timing Indicator**: Latest value at -0.34, showing slight improvement from the previous month[23][26] 4. Crude Oil Timing Model - **Crude Oil Sentiment Index**: Latest reading at -0.01, remaining below the neutral level[27][29] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Global Economic Sentiment Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures global economic activity and its impact on asset prices, particularly industrial metals like copper[1][19] - **Factor Construction Process**: - The factor is derived from global manufacturing PMI data, focusing on trends in new orders and production. - Historical analysis shows a high correlation between this factor and copper prices, reflecting the cyclical nature of industrial metals[1][16][19] - **Factor Evaluation**: The factor effectively captures global economic cycles and their influence on industrial metals, making it a valuable tool for asset allocation[1][19] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Global Economic Sentiment Factor - **Correlation with Copper Prices**: High historical correlation, indicating strong alignment with global economic cycles[1][16][19]