中信期货2026年度策略会于2025年11月26日在上海浦东嘉里大酒店成功召开。本次策略会以"破浪前 行，扬帆起航"为主题，会期两天，共设置1个主论坛及8个分论坛，以多元化视角对下半年宏观、权 益、债券、大宗商品、汇率、海外市场等议题进行深入探讨和展望。策略会期间，来自产业、金融以及 其他行业的投资者共聚现场，共享本次投资交流的盛宴。 中信证券海外宏观首席分析师崔嵘女士及她的团队认为，在2025年关税的波折像骤雨般扰乱全球经济， 从年初持续到年末。在骤雨初晴后，2026年海外宏观面将迎来一段暂时的清朗期，这个清朗包含两层含 义。一是清朗的基本面：2026年无论地缘、财政、货币政策的不确定性下降，还是美欧日经济增长将适 度加速、通胀担忧趋于回落至"舒适区"。二是在资产配置端，要保持一份清醒。2025年多国央行降息叠 加弱美元，使得全球股市普遍呈现"水牛"；而2026年，基于她对于沃勒可能将当选美联储主席的判断， 全球降息潮在幅度上可能将低于2025年；美元在上半年波折后转强，这二者叠加可能导致全球金融市场 流动性不及2025年，总体风险资产的回报率应会低于2025年。不过，她也预计2026年AI科技的狂欢还 有 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 豆粕早报 2025-11-26 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸大豆观点和策略 ✸豆粕观点和策略 豆粕M2601：3000至3060区间震荡 1.基本面：美豆震荡收涨，市场关注中国量采购美豆进展和技术性震荡整理，美豆短期回归 震荡等待中美贸易协议执行后续和南美大豆产区种植天气进一步指引。国内豆粕震荡回 升，美豆走势带动和技术性震荡整理，需求短期改善和现货价格贴水压制盘面反弹高度， 短期或维持震荡格局。中性 2.基差：现货2980（华东），基差-33，贴水期货。偏空 3.库存：油厂豆粕库存99.29万吨，上周115.3万吨，环比减少13.89%，去年同期77.86万吨， 同比增加2 ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the potential AI bubble and the implications for the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding rate cuts [2] - It examines the evolution of the real estate market, particularly the direct supply of housing by banks, and its impact on the sector [2] - The article also reflects on the implications of large banks merging with smaller banks, providing insights into the banking sector's future [2] Group 2 - The macroeconomic outlook suggests a stable global economy with a continued cycle of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, emphasizing the shift towards "big fiscal" policies in major economies [5] - It indicates that while China's economy faces short-term pressures, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a slow bull market in Chinese stocks and a cautious approach to the bond market [5] - The article predicts a long-term upward trend in commodity prices, particularly in the context of a weakening US dollar [5] Group 3 - The discussion on precious metals highlights the fluctuating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the potential turning point for cyclical demand in gold and silver [7] - It also addresses the structural opportunities in the precious metals market arising from the macroeconomic reordering [7] Group 4 - The focus on AI and large models reveals investment opportunities within the internet and data center industries, emphasizing the growth potential in these sectors [9] - The article identifies five key questions for investors regarding the development trends in AI [9] Group 5 - The report on the technology sector indicates that the AI industry revolution is driving high growth in demand for computing power and hardware, alongside accelerating commercialization in application sectors [11] - It highlights critical growth directions such as 6G, quantum technology, and domestic semiconductor production [11]

徐绍祖（联系人） 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号： Z0022675 美汽油裂差高位震荡， 纯苯美-韩价差新高 苯乙烯周报 从业资格号：F03115061 2025/11/22 CONTENTS 目录 03 利润库存 06 需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 成本端 02 期现市场 05 供给端 美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，宏观情绪转强，资本市场及大宗商品止跌反弹。纯苯-石脑油（BZN价差）上涨，EB非一体化 装置利润上涨，整体估值中性偏低。苯乙烯供应端压力较大，需求端进入季节性旺季尾声，下游三S开工出现回落，港口库存高 位震荡。短期地缘导致原油价格中枢上移，成本端原油或将驱动苯乙烯价格震荡上行。但中长期供需双弱背景下，苯乙烯价格 或将保持下降趋势。美国汽油裂解价差高位盘整，纯苯美-韩价差强势上行，创同期新高。 本周预测：纯苯（BZ2603）：参考整荡区间（5400-5700）；苯乙烯(EB2601)：参考震荡区间（6400-6700）。 纯苯&苯乙烯周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-11-18 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 ✸菜粕观点和策略 4.俄乌冲突尚在进行，乌克兰油菜籽减产和俄罗斯油菜籽产量增加相对 抵消影响，全球地缘冲突未来仍有上升可能，对大宗商品尚有支撑。 菜粕RM2601：2460至2520区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，豆粕走势带动和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待加拿大油菜 籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求旺季过去，但库存维持低位支撑盘面， 加上中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受豆粕影响维持区间震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2550，基差101，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减 ...

聊到这儿，给咱中长线投资者说句实在的策略：咱不做短线投机，别被一天的涨跌牵着鼻子走。油价要看OPEC+增产和地缘风险的博弈，金价等美联储 12月会议的明确信号，基本金属重点盯下游需求复苏的动静。中长线赚钱的关键，是抓准核心矛盾，等确定性机会，而不是在消息面里追涨杀跌。 好了，今天就跟大家唠到这儿，20年跟盘的经验，只跟大家说实在的逻辑、靠谱的判断。觉得帮主说的有用，就多关注转发，后续大宗商品有新动向， 我第一时间跟大家同步！要不要我帮你整理一份本次大宗商品核心影响因素的精简笔记，方便你随时查看？收起 再说说金价，这两天跌得让不少人纳闷。核心原因特简单，之前大家都笃定美联储12月会降息，黄金不生息，降息预期一强它就涨；可现在美联储官员 开始喊"通胀可能停滞"，降息的事儿突然变得不确定了，预期一降温，金价自然就回调了。不过帮主得提醒一句，咱中长线看，金价的核心还是跟着美联 储政策走，短期的情绪波动别太当真。 还有伦铜这些基本金属，为啥也跟着跌？说白了就是美元走强了，近两周美元指数涨得挺猛，以美元计价的大宗商品，美元一涨吸引力就降，这是老祖 宗传下来的规律。但大家别慌，基本金属长期看的是全球经济复苏的需求，短期跟着 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The high inventory pressure on methanol is increasing, and its downward trend is accelerating. The coal price has rebounded continuously during the coal demand peak season, with the domestic supply remaining ample. The international methanol plant operating rate has increased, and imports have recovered. The downstream demand is stable, but the port inventory continues to accumulate. In the context of high inventory, methanol is expected to continue its downward trend [4]. - Trading strategies include holding short positions for unilateral trading, adopting a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Raw material coal**: As of November 14, the coal mine operating rates in Ordos and Yulin regions are 71% and 44% respectively. The coal mines have resumed production, and the daily coal output in these two regions is around 4 million tons. The demand is strong, and the pit - mouth price has been rising continuously [4]. - **Supply side**: The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 320 yuan/ton, and the methanol operating rate remains high and stable, with the domestic supply being continuously abundant [4]. - **Import side**: The US dollar price is dropping rapidly, and the import premium has widened. All Iranian plants are operating normally, the non - Iranian operating rate has slightly increased, and the overseas operating rate has returned to a high level. The European and American markets have rebounded slightly, the price difference between China and Europe has narrowed, and the Southeast Asian re - export window has closed. Iran has loaded 540,000 tons in November, and the concessionary tender transactions are still poor, with a large amount of non - Iranian supplies [4]. - **Demand side**: The operating rate of MTO plants has rebounded. Some MTO plants are operating stably, while some are operating at partial loads. The overall downstream demand is stable [4]. - **Inventory side**: The port inventory accumulation cycle has ended, and the basis is relatively strong; the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated within a narrow range. However, with the increase in imports and a slight decline in MTO operating rate, the port inventory continues to accumulate [4]. Chapter 2: Weekly Data Tracking - **Supply - Domestic**: As of November 13, the overall domestic methanol plant operating load is 76.54%, a 0.45 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.83 - percentage - point increase from the same period last year. The non - integrated methanol average operating load is 68.74%, a 0.61 - percentage - point increase from last week [5]. - **Supply - International**: From November 1 to November 7, 2025, the international (excluding China) methanol output is 1,050,609 tons, an increase of 19,750 tons from last week, and the plant capacity utilization rate is 72.02%, a 1.35% increase [5]. - **Supply - Import**: As of November 12, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 451,800 tons [5]. - **Demand - MTO**: As of November 13, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO plants in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is 83.65%, a 0.68 - percentage - point increase from last week. The national olefin plant operating rate is 90.24%, and the olefin industry operating rate continues to decline [5]. - **Demand - Traditional**: The capacity utilization rates of dimethyl ether, acetic acid, and formaldehyde are 5.33% (a 1.11% month - on - month decrease), 67.13%, and 41.42% respectively. The overall capacity utilization rate of formaldehyde has decreased compared to last week [5]. - **Demand - Direct sales**: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 88,800 tons, a 271.55% increase from the previous statistical date [5]. - **Inventory - Enterprises**: The inventory of production enterprises is 369,300 tons, a decrease of 17,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 245,400 tons, a 10.99% increase from the previous period [5]. - **Inventory - Ports**: As of November 12, 2025, the total port inventory is 1,543,600 tons, an increase of 56,500 tons from the previous period [5]. - **Valuation**: The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 390 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 322 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis has remained stable [5]. - **Spot prices**: The price in Taicang is 2040 yuan/ton (- 60), and in the northern line is 1980 yuan/ton (- 10) [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3020 - 3080. The domestic soybean meal market is affected by the US soybean trend, with short - term demand in the off - season and spot price discounts suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. It is likely to maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [8][9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160. The domestic soybean market is influenced by the US soybean trend, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones, high imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production increases. It will be affected by the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations and continued arrivals of imported Brazilian soybeans in the short term [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's soybean purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to be relatively strong above the 1000 - point mark in the short term and await further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the inventory of soybeans in oil mills also declined from a high level. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile range in the short term [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations [13]. - The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, combined with the potential for weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the impact of the China - US trade negotiation agreement, means that the soybean meal market will maintain a volatile pattern in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in the US soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: High total arrival volume of imported soybeans in November, the harvest and listing of US soybeans, and the continuous expectation of a US soybean bumper harvest [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [15]. - Bearish factors: Bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in domestic soybean production [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 3000, with a basis of - 63, indicating a discount to the futures price. The oil mill soybean meal inventory is 115.3 million tons, a 9.33% increase from last week and a 17.16% increase from the same period last year [9]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4100, with a basis of - 18, indicating a discount to the futures price. The oil mill soybean inventory is 710.79 million tons, a 5.39% decrease from last week but a 29.06% increase from the same period last year [11]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions have decreased, and funds have flowed in [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions have increased, and funds have flowed out [11]. 6. Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Global**: From 2015 to 2024, the global soybean harvest area, output, and total supply have generally shown an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [32]. - **Domestic**: From 2015 to 2024, China's soybean harvest area, output, and import volume have all increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also fluctuated [33]. 7. Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress - **US**: In 2024, the sowing, growth, and harvest progress of US soybeans are compared with the previous year and the five - year average. In 2025, the early - stage harvest progress is also provided [35][38][42]. - **Brazil**: The planting and harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2024/2025 and 2025/2026 are presented, showing the comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][43]. - **Argentina**: The planting and harvest progress of Argentine soybeans in 2024/2025 is given, with a comparison with the previous year and the five - year average [41]. 8. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports - From March to September 2025, the USDA monthly supply - demand reports show changes in US soybean planting area, yield, output, ending inventory, exports, and crushing volume, as well as the production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. 9. Other Market Data - The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans has declined both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in November but increased year - on - year [47]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills decreased from a high level, while the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level [48]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills fluctuated slightly, and the demand for off - season stockpiling decreased [49]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans declined following the US soybean price, and the futures profit fluctuated slightly [53]. - The domestic pig inventory has been increasing, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. Pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded recently, while piglet prices remain weak [55][57]. - The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly [59]. - The domestic pig - farming profit has improved recently [61].

Hot News - In October, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 1.621 million, a year-on-year increase of 18.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.5%. From January to October, the cumulative wholesale was 12.058 million, a growth of 29.9% [4]. - Since 13:01 on November 10, 2025, China has suspended the implementation of countermeasures against the US Section 301 investigation on the maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year [4]. - In October, Malaysia's palm oil inventory was 2,464,452 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.44%, and the palm oil production was 2,043,886 tons, a month-on-month increase of 11.02% [4]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, the net inflow of domestic gold ETFs was 79.015 tons, a year-on-year increase of 164.03%. The gold consumption was 682.730 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.95%. Among them, gold jewelry consumption was 270.036 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 32.50%; gold bars and coins consumption was 352.116 tons, a year-on-year increase of 24.55%; industrial and other gold consumption was 60.578 tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.72% [4]. - As of November 10, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7062 million tons, a decrease of 0.008 million tons from last Thursday, a decline of 0.47%. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7977 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.0169 million tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.9085 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0089 million tons [4]. Plate Performance - Key focus: Soda ash, glass, coking coal, SHFE copper, SHFE gold [5]. - Night session performance: Non-metallic building materials rose 3.25%, precious metals rose 29.09%, oilseeds rose 9.52%, non-ferrous metals rose 23.21%, soft commodities rose 2.72%, coal, coke, steel and minerals rose 13.02%, energy rose 2.90%, chemicals rose 11.18%, grains rose 1.20%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 3.90% [5]. Large - Class Asset Performance | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.53 | Fetching... | 19.90 | | | SSE 50 | 0.51 | -0.12 | 13.75 | | | CSI 300 | 0.35 | -0.29 | 19.32 | | | CSI 500 | 0.22 | -1.39 | 28.26 | | | S&P 500 | 1.54 | -0.64 | 16.17 | | | Hang Seng Index | 1.55 | 0.11 | 32.85 | | | German DAX | 1.65 | 0.38 | 20.35 | | | Nikkei 225 | 1.26 | -4.20 | 27.62 | | | FTSE 100 | 1.08 | 0.62 | 19.75 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.01 | -0.18 | -0.40 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.56 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | -0.00 | -0.07 | -0.49 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.38 | -0.09 | 2.81 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 0.47 | -2.09 | -16.53 | | | London Spot Gold | 2.88 | -0.57 | 56.84 | | | LME Copper | 1.47 | -1.46 | 23.83 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.61 | -2.67 | 30.21 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.43 | -8.17 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 3.27 | 9.97 | [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the restructuring of global trade patterns accelerated by the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to a reconfiguration of global industrial division and macro order, which may significantly increase asset volatility and economic uncertainty [2][8]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets, with a decade-long down cycle in upstream investments leading to unstable existing supplies and insufficient incremental supplies [5][16]. - The ongoing geopolitical risks and resource protectionism are likely to increase macro uncertainties, further challenging the supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [5][23]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics and Energy Transition - The focus on strategic security is shifting demand-side attention towards energy transition and reserve construction, indicating that energy transition remains a significant trend and reserve building is essential for strategic commodities [5][36]. - The global energy system has seen a new round of investment expansion since 2021, with a significant shift towards renewable energy and related sectors, reflecting a steady advancement in energy transition [36][39]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, driven by AI narratives and the ongoing electrification trend, which is expected to provide sustained demand growth for commodities like copper [6][48]. - The restructuring of trade patterns and industrial division is likely to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with significant demand potential from countries along the Belt and Road Initiative [6][56]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - The article anticipates that geopolitical tensions, resource security demands, and emerging demand growth will form a "triple play" for the commodity market as it enters a new chapter [2][8]. - The supply-demand balance in the commodity market is expected to improve marginally in 2026, with a focus on micro-level differences and fundamental changes in various commodities [58][60]. Group 5: Specific Commodity Insights - The copper market is projected to face a supply gap due to insufficient upstream investment and increasing demand from electrification, with prices expected to remain elevated [68]. - The oil market may experience a shift from surplus to a more balanced state, with potential upward price adjustments driven by geopolitical risks and supply constraints [64][65]. - Agricultural commodities are expected to see a gradual recovery, influenced by trade policies, weather risks, and the growth of biofuels [70][71].