Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that Duolingo no longer deserves the previous valuation premium due to slowing growth and increased strategic uncertainty. The company's strategic focus will shift from short-term monetization to long-term user growth, implying a sacrifice of foreseeable bookings and profits in the short term for uncertain future user growth, complicating the predictability of the company's growth model beyond 2026 [1][3][10] Financial Performance - Duolingo's third-quarter performance appears robust, with revenues of $271.713 million, a significant increase from $192.594 million in the same period last year. Gross profit reached $196.911 million, up from $140.414 million [5] - However, the fourth-quarter guidance is disappointing, with management projecting median bookings of $333 million, revenues of $275 million, and EBITDA of $77 million, all below market consensus by 3% and 4% respectively [6][7] Strategic Shift - Management has indicated a clear shift in focus towards long-term user growth projects, which will lead to a decrease in short-term monetization priorities. This confirms market concerns that the company's current growth rate is slowing and that monetization efficiency will be sacrificed for stable user growth [7][10] - The company plans to increase marketing expenses in the U.S. market to support daily active user (DAU) trends, further squeezing short-term profits [7] Market Reaction - Following the disappointing guidance, several investment banks have downgraded their ratings and target prices for Duolingo. UBS cut its target price from $450 to $285, a 37% decrease, while Bank of America reduced its target from $370 to $301. Morgan Stanley maintained an overweight rating but lowered its target from $500 to $300 [9][10] - Analysts believe that the uncertainty surrounding growth warrants a lower valuation multiple, with Bank of America reducing the 2026 enterprise value/sales multiple from 13x to 10x [10] User Growth Indicators - Despite the target price reductions, Morgan Stanley maintains an overweight rating, suggesting that Duolingo needs to demonstrate stable user growth without a significant gap from bookings growth to change market sentiment [11] - Recent data shows that daily active user growth has stabilized at approximately 30% year-over-year growth in September and October [12] - The U.S. market appears to be recovering from a low point, with improved brand sentiment and increased social media engagement, which may translate into growth over time. Long-term growth drivers remain intact, particularly in key expansion markets like China and in critical courses such as advanced English and chess [13]

多邻国(DUOL.US)夜盘大跌超19%，报210美元。消息面上，多邻国公布第三季度业绩，营收2.717亿美 元，同比增长41%，超过分析师预期的2.603亿美元；每股收益5.95美元，亦超过预期的5.19美元。期内 付费用户数增长34%，达到1150万。展望第四季度，该公司预计预订量将在3.295亿至3.355亿美元之 间，低于市场的3.436亿美元；同时预计日活跃用户数增速将较第三季度的36%有所放缓，但九月和十 月的稳定趋势表明，同比增速仍将维持在30%左右。(格隆汇) ...

Core Insights - Duolingo's stock price surged over 34%, reaching $463.85, following strong Q2 earnings and revenue that exceeded expectations [1] - The company raised its full-year revenue guidance to a range of $1.01 billion to $1.019 billion, marking its first forecast above $1 billion [1] - Daily active users (DAU) increased by 40% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the 24% growth in monthly active users (MAU), indicating enhanced user engagement [1] Financial Performance - Q2 revenue reached $252.3 million, a 41% year-over-year increase, surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $240.7 million [1] - Net profit soared to $44.8 million, or $0.91 per share, greatly exceeding the anticipated $0.59 per share and nearly doubling the profit from the same period last year [1] - Total bookings experienced an 84% year-over-year increase, reflecting improved conversion efficiency for paid users [1]

Core Insights - Duolingo's stock price surged over 34%, reaching $463.85, following strong Q2 earnings and an upward revision of its annual revenue guidance to a range of $1.01 billion to $1.019 billion, marking its first time exceeding the $1 billion threshold [1][1][1] Financial Performance - The company reported Q2 revenue of $252.3 million, a 41% year-over-year increase, significantly surpassing Wall Street's expectation of $240.7 million [1][1] - Net profit for the quarter soared to $44.8 million, or $0.91 per share, greatly exceeding the anticipated $0.59 per share and nearly doubling from the same period last year [1][1] - Total bookings increased by 84% year-over-year, indicating improved paid conversion efficiency [1][1] User Engagement - Daily active users (DAU) rose by 40% year-over-year to 47.7 million, with DAU growth outpacing monthly active users (MAU) growth of 24%, suggesting a significant enhancement in user engagement [1][1][1]