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九毛九(09922):3季度同店修复节奏仍然偏慢;下调盈利预测,维持中性评级
BOCOM International· 2025-10-16 11:41
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [2][18]. Core Insights - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast downward due to a slow recovery in same-store sales, maintaining a neutral rating with a target price reduced to HKD 2.32, reflecting a potential upside of 13.7% [6][18]. - Same-store sales for the third quarter showed declines, but there are initial signs of recovery, particularly in the "Tai Er" brand, which has seen improvements in major cities [6][19]. - The company is focusing on optimizing its store network and upgrading its "Tai Er" model, which is expected to drive sales recovery in the latter half of the year [6][19]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for 2025 have been slightly reduced to RMB 5,553 million, with net profit estimates adjusted to RMB 143 million [5][19]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is forecasted at RMB 0.10, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [5][19]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is projected at 18.8 times, down from earlier estimates [5][19]. Store Performance - As of the end of September, the total number of stores was 686, with a net decrease of 43 stores primarily due to the closure of underperforming locations [6][19]. - The "Tai Er" brand has implemented a new operational model, with 106 upgraded restaurants as of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by the end of 2025 [6][19]. Sales Metrics - The average daily sales for the third quarter showed declines of 9.3% for "Tai Er," 19.1% for "Song Hot Pot," and 14.8% for "Jiu Mao Jiu," although the rate of decline has narrowed compared to the previous quarter [6][19]. - The table turnover rates for "Tai Er," "Song," and "Jiu Mao Jiu" were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, indicating slight improvements in operational efficiency [6][19].