智通财经APP获悉，九毛九(09922)反弹逾4%，截至发稿，涨4%，报1.82港元，成交额1152.81万港元。 华兴证券发布研报称，第三季度九毛九运营平稳，旗下主要品牌处于调整期，太二、怂火锅和九毛九的 同店销售额同比下滑，太二的降幅在季度内呈现收窄趋势，整体因受门店调整影响，公司全年利润规模 或许会略低于当前的预期。预计第四季度旗下所有品牌门店调整顺利。 消息面上，九毛九此前发布公告，三大主要品牌自营门店同店销售额虽承压，但已连续三个季度改善， 太二自营同店日均销售额同比下降9.3%，较上半年的-19.0%显著改善，怂火锅与九毛九自营同店日均销 售额同比分别下降19.1%与14.8%，亦呈现边际好转；北京、上海等核心城市同店销售额在第三季度已 实现同比正增长。 ...

风险提示 华兴证券发布研报称，维持九毛九(09922)"持有"评级与盈利预测，下调目标价29%至1.77港元，对应12 倍2026年P/E，第三季度运营平稳，旗下主要品牌处于调整期，太二、怂火锅和九毛九的同店销售额同 比下滑，太二的降幅在季度内呈现收窄趋势，整体因受门店调整影响，公司全年利润规模或许会略低于 当前的预期。 华兴证券主要观点如下： 公司3Q25运营平稳 九毛九前期发布三季度经营表现，1)截至3Q25，公司拥有太二餐厅530家，其中自营门店509家;怂火锅 71家;九毛九64家，其中自营门店63家;其他品牌21家。2)翻台方面，太二自营门店在中国内地的翻台率 为3.2次/天，其他区域为3.9次/天。怂火锅为2.4次/天;九毛九自营门店翻台率为2.5次/天。3)客单价方 面，太二自营门店中，中国内地为66元，其他区域为155元;怂火锅为100元，九毛九自营门店为58元。 4)同店日均销售额方面，太二自营门店同比-9.3%;怂火锅同比-19.1%;九毛九自营门店同比-14.8%。 预计4Q旗下所有品牌门店调整顺利 1)3Q25，太二同店收入的同比下滑幅度环比1H25有进一步的收窄，9月上旬已经收窄至低 ...

九毛九前期发布三季度经营表现，1)截至3Q25，公司拥有太二餐厅530家，其中自营门店509家;怂火锅 71家;九毛九64家，其中自营门店63家;其他品牌21家。2)翻台方面，太二自营门店在中国内地的翻台率 为3.2次/天，其他区域为3.9次/天。怂火锅为2.4次/天;九毛九自营门店翻台率为2.5次/天。3)客单价方 面，太二自营门店中，中国内地为66元，其他区域为155元;怂火锅为100元，九毛九自营门店为58元。 4)同店日均销售额方面，太二自营门店同比-9.3%;怂火锅同比-19.1%;九毛九自营门店同比-14.8%。 预计4Q旗下所有品牌门店调整顺利 1)3Q25，太二同店收入的同比下滑幅度环比1H25有进一步的收窄，9月上旬已经收窄至低个位数下滑， 已经基本接近持平。但9月受西贝预制菜事件影响，购物中心餐饮区的客流量有所下滑，大约持续了近 一个月，国庆黄金周之后，西贝预制菜事件对客流的冲击有所减弱。太二的同店收入下滑幅度也同步有 所收窄。该行预计到了年底，太二的同店收入同比增速有转正的机会。 智通财经APP获悉，华兴证券发布研报称，维持九毛九（09922）"持有"评级与盈利预测，下调目标价 29%至 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies including Pop Mart, Anta Sports, and Haidilao, while Budweiser Asia is rated "Neutral" [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant developments in the food and beverage sector, including Luckin Coffee's preparation for relisting in the U.S. and the launch of new store formats by Jiumaojiu Group's hot pot brand [5][6]. - The retail sales data for October shows a total retail sales figure of 46,291 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.9%, indicating a slight recovery in consumer spending [5]. Summary by Sections Company Ratings - Key companies rated "Outperform" include: - Pop Mart - Anta Sports - Haidilao - China Feihe - New Oriental Online - Others [1]. Weekly Performance - Top performers in the food and beverage sector include: - Auntea Jenny (+31.4%) - Haidilao (+7.0%) - Underperformers include: - Xiabuxiabu (-13.1%) [2][6]. Industry News - Notable industry news includes: - Luckin Coffee's plans for a U.S. relisting - Sony's production of a Labubu-themed movie - Jiumaojiu Group's new hot pot store opening - Xiabuxiabu's marketing activities leading to a 45% increase in repeat visits from existing members in certain cities [5][6].

Summary of Jiamaojiu Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiamaojiu Group - **Date**: November 10, 2025 Key Points Industry and Company Performance - In September 2025, Jiamaojiu Group experienced a decline in foot traffic due to public sentiment surrounding prepared dishes, leading to fluctuations in same-store sales. However, a rapid recovery began in late October, with expectations of positive growth by year-end [2][3] - The Taier brand has been actively promoting a fresh model, surpassing 120 stores, with same-store data outperforming the old model by approximately 15 percentage points. By the end of 2025, over 200 stores are expected, with a complete upgrade planned by mid-2026 [2][5] Store Management and Strategy - The company is closing underperforming stores, with Taier closing about 110 stores in the first half of 2025 and an estimated total of 130 closures for the year. This strategy aims to alleviate financial burdens [2][12] - Jiamaojiu and Song Hotpot are also exploring new models, with plans to open their first fresh model stores in Guangzhou [2][6] Sales and Customer Trends - Same-store sales for Jiamaojiu Group's brands showed signs of stabilization in Q3 2025, particularly for the Taier brand, which saw a narrowing decline to -9%. Key cities like Beijing and Shanghai reported positive same-store sales [3][7] - The average customer spending has remained stable with an upward trend since Q3 2024 [3] Delivery and Dining Experience - The proportion of delivery sales increased to 23%-25% in Q2 2025 but is expected to stabilize around 20% as the company focuses on enhancing dine-in experiences [2][9] - The company maintains a neutral stance on delivery services, recognizing both efficiency benefits and potential customer experience risks [9] Financial Outlook and Cost Management - The company anticipates achieving same-store sales growth by October 2025, supported by increased store openings and closures of underperforming locations. The low base in Q4 2025 also enhances the likelihood of positive year-over-year comparisons [7] - The fresh model has increased SKU counts and average transaction values, with initial gross margins slightly lower but expected to recover as operational efficiencies improve [4][15] Competitive Landscape - Taier's fresh model has shown significant performance differences across cities, with same-store sales in some areas outperforming the old model by 20-40 percentage points [15][17] - The company is adapting its offerings to attract family and business customers, responding to shifts in consumer demographics and preferences [19][21] Future Plans - The focus for 2026 will be on upgrading existing stores rather than new openings, as the fresh model's data is still being validated [13][22] - The company aims to optimize its operational layout and close unprofitable locations to prepare for future growth [14][12] Additional Insights - The company has faced challenges with its delivery-only stores, which have not performed as expected, leading to a shift back to focusing on dine-in operations [11][12] - Taier has been proactive in addressing public concerns regarding prepared dishes by showcasing its cooking processes and enhancing menu offerings [20][21] This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions of Jiamaojiu Group as discussed in the conference call, highlighting both challenges and opportunities within the current market landscape.

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group (09922.HK) reported a decline in same-store daily sales for its brands, with Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu experiencing year-on-year decreases of 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% respectively in Q3 2025, although the declines narrowed compared to Q2, indicating effective operational adjustments and brand upgrades [1][4] - The Chinese dining market is undergoing a significant transformation in consumer perception of "value," particularly among younger consumers who now equate it with a combination of "cost-performance" and "experience," prompting brands to enhance dining environments, service quality, and social attributes to meet new market demands [1] Company Strategy - Jiumaojiu Group's strategic adjustments are representative of industry trends, with its core brand Taier launching the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrade and layout optimization, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which aligns with consumer demands for quality and freshness [3][4] - As of the announcement date, Taier has established 106 new model restaurants, with same-store daily sales showing continuous improvement for three consecutive quarters, particularly achieving positive year-on-year growth in first-tier cities like Beijing and Shanghai in Q3 [4] - The group plans to accelerate the rollout of the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants, aiming to expand to over 200 locations by the end of 2025 due to positive market feedback [4] Brand Development - Song Hotpot is focusing on dual upgrades in product offerings and atmosphere, enhancing its fresh product categories and positioning a joyful atmosphere as a core brand asset, transforming dining into a fun and quality social space to attract younger customers [4] - Jiumaojiu's Northwest Cuisine brand is targeting the children's dining sector by developing children's meals, opening experience stores, and incorporating interactive activities to increase family customer loyalty and market competitiveness [4] - The average customer spending level across the main brands has remained relatively stable over several quarters, indicating a shift from reliance on short-term promotions to strengthening product quality and enhancing customer experience, marking a critical step in adapting to the new market normal [4]

Core Insights - The company reported an improvement in same-store sales across its three main brands, with Taier showing the most significant recovery, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [1][2] Group 1: Operational Performance - Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year in Q3 2025, a significant improvement from a decline of 19.0% in the first half of the year [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, reflecting successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] - The company continues to implement its "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurant upgrades, with 106 locations operational by the end of September, aiming to expand to over 200 by year-end [1][2] Group 2: Store Structure and Strategy - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) reached 686, with Taier accounting for 530 locations [2] - The company has shifted its strategic focus from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, moving away from price competition [2] - Taier's self-operated table turnover rate was 3.3, with a stable average spending of 74 yuan per customer [2] Group 3: Financial Projections - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million yuan respectively, reflecting confidence in growth drivers [3] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3] - A target price of 2.24 HKD is set for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [3]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated implementation of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to CNY 150 million, CNY 204 million, and CNY 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2x, 11.2x, and 9.4x [1] - The target price for 2026 is set at HKD 2.24, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on brand strength and product innovation capabilities [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from a 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating successful store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network and Customer Metrics - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, and Jiumaojiu 64 [2] - The table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions; Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu have turnover rates of 2.4 and 2.5 respectively [2] - The average spending per customer at Taier's self-operated stores is CNY 74, while Song Hotpot's is CNY 100, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company has shifted its strategy from short-term promotions to enhancing product quality and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] - The "5.0 Fresh Model" focuses on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, with 106 locations implementing this model by the end of September, and plans to accelerate promotion to over 200 locations by year-end [2]

Core Viewpoint - The core growth driver for Jiumaojiu (09922) is the accelerated deployment of the Taier "5.0 Fresh Model," entering a phase of expansion and store openings [1] Financial Performance - The company has raised its net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to 150 million, 204 million, and 242 million respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 15.2, 11.2, and 9.4 times [1] - The target price is set at 2.24 HKD based on a 14 times PE for 2026, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Sales and Store Performance - In Q3, Taier's same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement from the 19.0% decline in the first half of the year, marking three consecutive quarters of improvement [1] - Same-store sales in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai achieved positive year-on-year growth in Q3, indicating effective store model optimization and regional strategy adjustments [1] Restaurant Network - As of September 30, 2025, the total number of restaurants (including franchises) is 686, with Taier accounting for 530, Song Hotpot 71, Jiumaojiu 64, and others [2] - The average table turnover rate for Taier's self-operated stores is 3.3, with 3.2 in mainland China and 3.9 in other regions [2] Consumer Experience and Strategy - The average consumer spending at Taier's self-operated stores is 74 RMB, while Song Hotpot is 100 RMB, both showing stability over multiple quarters [2] - The company's strategy has shifted from short-term promotions to enhancing product strength and customer experience, gradually moving away from price competition [2] Model Implementation - The "5.0 Fresh Model" is being rapidly implemented, focusing on fresh ingredients like live fish, fresh chicken, and fresh beef, which has led to brand upgrades and improved customer experiences [2] - As of the end of September, 106 locations have adopted the "5.0 Fresh Model," with plans to accelerate promotion to exceed 200 locations by the end of the fourth quarter [2]

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu Group reported its Q3 2025 operational data, indicating that while same-store sales remain under pressure, initial effects of operational adjustments are becoming evident [1][4] - The Taier brand has seen a narrowing decline in same-store sales for three consecutive quarters, with positive year-on-year growth in key cities like Beijing and Shanghai during Q3 [1][3] Group Performance - For Q3 2025, the table turnover rates for Taier (self-operated), Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu (self-operated) were 3.3, 2.4, and 2.5 respectively, while same-store average daily sales decreased by 9.3%, 19.1%, and 14.8% year-on-year [3] - Despite the overall negative growth, the decline rates for Taier and Jiumaojiu have narrowed compared to Q2, indicating that the group's operational adjustments are having a positive impact [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Jiumaojiu Group is actively promoting the transformation and upgrade of the Taier brand through the "5.0 Fresh Model," with 106 restaurants already established in mainland China as of the announcement date [3] - The average daily dining revenue for the "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants has increased by approximately 15 percentage points compared to conventional stores [3] - The company aims to increase the number of "5.0 Fresh Model" restaurants to over 200 by the end of 2025 [3] Menu and Design Changes - The "5.0 Fresh Model" has made significant adjustments to the menu structure, expanding from a single-item strategy centered on sour fish to three main categories: "live fish, fresh chicken, and premium beef," along with a wider selection of hot dishes [3] - Store design has shifted from the previous black-and-white comic style to a warmer atmosphere using natural wood materials, and a "fresh" ingredient display area has been added to enhance the dining experience [3] Market Outlook - According to CMB International's latest research report, while same-store sales remain under pressure, signs of recovery are beginning to emerge [4] - The firm has slightly lowered its profit forecasts for Jiumaojiu for 2025-2027 and adjusted the target price to HKD 2.32, maintaining a "neutral" rating [4] - The challenges faced by Jiumaojiu Group are not only due to internal transformation pressures but are also closely related to changes in the overall restaurant industry environment [4]