国信证券主要观点如下： 行情回顾：服务消费政策预期+春节消费旺季，餐酒龙头持续表现 2026年1月，A/H/美股连锁酒店餐饮、外卖平台涨幅前5名个股为九毛九、锅圈、阿里巴巴-W、君亭酒 店、古茗。其中九毛九领涨，公司最新公告显示核心品牌太二25Q4同店降幅继续收窄至-3%，怂火锅& 九毛九品牌同店降幅则相对稳健；锅圈发布业绩预告业绩维持强劲增长，预计2025年核心经营利润约 4.5-4.7亿元，同增44.8-51.2%；阿里巴巴-W预计受益于千问模型生态融合及芯片业务进展；其次君亭酒 店、古茗也涨幅良好。2026年2月至今，春节旺季催化，同店收入/RevPAR存强修复动能龙头如百胜中 国、华住集团-S、亚朵、海底捞、古茗等表现强势。 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年1月以来，在服务消费政策预期与春节旺季双重催化 下，餐酒龙头表现强势。茶饮、快餐等细分赛道龙头维持韧性增长，行业景气度持续回暖。维持酒店餐 饮行业"优于大市"评级。建议重视2026年服务消费元年，看好政策预期与基本面共振下的服务消费龙 头。 板块动态：2025年12月单月餐饮收入同增2.2%，限额以上餐饮单位收入1463.2亿元， ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the synergy between policy support and seasonal demand, recommending investment in high-quality leading companies in the hotel and restaurant sectors [2][3] - The performance of leading restaurant and hotel stocks has been strong, driven by service consumption policy expectations and the Spring Festival consumption peak [11][12] Market Review - In January 2026, leading stocks in the A/H/U.S. markets for chain hotels and restaurants saw significant gains, with notable performers including Jiumaojiu, Guoquan, Alibaba-W, Junting Hotel, and Guming [11][12] - Jiumaojiu led the gains, with its core brand Taier showing a continued narrowing of same-store sales decline to -3% in Q4 2025, while Guoquan forecasted a robust growth in core operating profit for 2025, expected to be around 450-470 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 44.8-51.2% [2][11] Restaurant and Hotel Tracking - In December 2025, the overall restaurant revenue increased by 2.2% year-on-year, while revenue from above-limit restaurants decreased by 1.1% [14] - The CPI in December 2025 rose by 0.8% year-on-year, with service CPI increasing by 0.6%, indicating resilient growth [14] - For January 2026, the hotel industry saw a RevPAR increase of 30.7% year-on-year during the Spring Festival week, with occupancy rates (OCC) up by 8.1% and average daily rates (ADR) up by 13.5% [21] Restaurant Sector Insights - The tea beverage sector is expected to maintain single-digit year-on-year growth in January, supported by platform subsidies and product innovations [20] - The hot pot sector, particularly Haidilao, experienced a slight decline in same-store sales in January but is projected to see a recovery during the Spring Festival with an expected increase of over 5% [20] - Fast food chains like KFC and Pizza Hut are anticipated to maintain resilient growth, with expected single-digit increases in same-store sales [20] Hotel Sector Insights - The hotel sector's RevPAR showed resilient growth in January 2026, driven primarily by improvements in ADR, while occupancy rates remained stable [21][22] - Economic and mid-range hotels are performing similarly to the overall market, while high-end hotels are outperforming, although luxury hotels are showing weaker data [21][22] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains an "outperform" rating, suggesting a focus on leading service consumption companies in 2026, with key recommendations including Haidilao, Huazhu Group-S, Guming, Guoquan, Yum China, Atour, and others [3][12]

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant industry is experiencing significant performance differentiation, with some companies achieving growth through strong brand power, supply chain management, and digital capabilities, while others face pressure due to homogenized competition, rising costs, and weak consumer demand [1]. Group 1: Performance Highlights - Guoquan, a Hong Kong-listed company, forecasts a revenue increase to RMB 77.5 billion to RMB 78.5 billion for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 19.8% to 21.3%. Net profit is expected to reach RMB 4.43 billion to RMB 4.63 billion, a substantial increase of 83.7% to 92% [3]. - Yujian Xiaomian also announced a profit forecast of approximately RMB 1 billion to RMB 1.15 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 64.7% to 89.5%. Adjusted net profit is projected to be around RMB 1.25 billion to RMB 1.4 billion, up by 95.6% to 119.1% [4]. - Hu Shang Ayi expects a profit of approximately RMB 4.95 billion to RMB 5.25 billion for the year ending December 31, 2025, an increase of about 50% to 60% compared to the previous year [4]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - In response to market pressures, several restaurant companies are adjusting their strategic layouts. Jiumaojiu reported a significant reduction in the number of its main brands, with the number of Taier restaurants decreasing from 634 at the end of 2024 to 499 by the end of 2025, a net decrease of 135 [7]. - The company is accelerating the upgrade of its store model, with 243 "fresh" model stores established across 60 core cities by the end of 2025, indicating positive market feedback and replicability of the model [8]. - Haidilao is actively launching new concepts, such as the "Haidilao Dapaidang Hotpot" and "Sugar Water Shop," to enhance customer experience and improve turnover rates post-upgrade [8][9].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that Jiumaojiu International Holdings Limited has reported its operational performance for the fourth quarter of 2025, revealing a total of 644 restaurants across its brands, with a decrease of 42 locations compared to the previous quarter [1] - As of December 31, 2025, the breakdown of restaurant locations includes 477 self-operated and 22 franchised for the Taier brand, 62 for Song Hotpot, and 61 self-operated and 2 franchised for the Jiumaojiu brand [1] - The average customer spending for the Taier brand in mainland China is 68 RMB, while it is 153 RMB in other regions; Song Hotpot has an average of 104 RMB, and Jiumaojiu has 56 RMB [1] Group 2 - The company indicated that the operational adjustments and store model upgrades for the Taier brand are showing positive results, with the "Fresh" model performing well and supporting overall recovery [2] - As of December 31, 2025, a total of 243 "Fresh" model stores have been established, covering 60 core cities, including 6 upgraded "New Taier Fresh Ingredient Sichuan Cuisine" stores [2] - The product structure and menu diversity for the Taier brand have been further optimized to reinforce its positioning around "fresh ingredients" [2]

Core Insights - Jiumaojiu (09922.HK) reported significant shrinkage in its main brands, including Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu, indicating that the company is still in a phase of intensive adjustment and self-rescue as of Q4 2025 [1][9] Group 1: Brand Performance - Taier, as a key brand, saw a notable reduction in its restaurant count, operating 499 locations by the end of 2025, down from 634 at the end of 2024, resulting in a closure rate exceeding 21% [10] - The turnover rate for Taier restaurants (self-operated) fell to 3.0 times per day in Q4 2025, down from 3.3 times in Q3, while same-store daily sales decreased by 3.0% year-on-year, indicating ongoing growth challenges [12] - Jiumaojiu's other main brands, Song Hotpot and Jiumaojiu, also faced declines in same-store sales, with decreases of 16.4% and 19% respectively, reflecting insufficient recovery momentum [12] Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - In response to market pressures, Taier accelerated its store model upgrades, with 243 "fresh" model stores established by year-end, nearly half of all locations, focusing on fresh ingredients [12] - The new "New Taier Fresh Ingredients Sichuan Cuisine" stores aim to diversify offerings beyond the single category of pickled fish, introducing classic Sichuan dishes to expand revenue potential [12] - Jiumaojiu is also exploring new avenues, with 17 "Mountain's Outside" restaurants and the launch of a new brand "Chao Na Bian" focusing on grilled beef, with an average customer spend of approximately 125 yuan [15] Group 3: International Expansion - Jiumaojiu is looking to expand internationally, announcing plans to acquire a 49% stake in North American chain Big Way Hot Pot for $43 million, which operates 21 self-service hotpot restaurants [8][15] - The company has previously entered Southeast Asia and North America through the Taier brand, showing potential in overseas markets, with Taier's turnover rate in other regions reaching 3.7 times per day and average spending significantly higher than in mainland China [15] - However, challenges such as compliance requirements, cultural differences, and supply chain stability in foreign markets pose significant hurdles for Jiumaojiu's expansion efforts [16]

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu (09922) shows a stock price increase of over 3%, currently trading at 1.92 HKD with a transaction volume of 10.75 million HKD, reflecting positive market sentiment despite some declines in same-store sales for its brands [1] Group 1: Company Performance - In Q4 2025, the table turnover rates for Jiumaojiu's brands are reported as 3.0 for Taier, 2.3 for Song Hotpot, and 2.1 for Jiumaojiu [1] - Same-store average daily sales for Taier, Song Hotpot, and Jiumaojiu decreased by 3.0%, 19.0%, and 16.4% year-on-year, respectively [1] - Taier's same-store average daily sales in mainland China have turned positive, indicating successful operational adjustments and store model upgrades [1] Group 2: Business Model and Expansion - The "Fresh" model has been particularly successful, with 243 "Fresh" model stores established across 60 key cities in China by December 31, 2025 [1] - Six upgraded "New Taier • Fresh Ingredients Sichuan Cuisine" stores have optimized product structure and menu diversity, reinforcing the brand's positioning on fresh ingredients [1] - Positive market feedback on the "Fresh" model validates its replicability across different cities and consumer scenarios [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of the main brands of the company shows steady improvement, with specific operational adjustments and upgrades contributing positively to sales figures in the fourth quarter of 2025 [2] Group 1: Brand Performance - In the fourth quarter of 2025, the table turnover rates for the main brands were 3.0 for Tai Er, 2.3 for Song Hot Pot, and 2.1 for Jiu Mao Jiu, with same-store daily sales decreasing by 3.0%, 19.0%, and 16.4% respectively [1] - Tai Er has achieved positive year-on-year growth in same-store daily sales in mainland China, reflecting the effectiveness of previous operational adjustments and store model upgrades [2] - The "Fresh" model stores have shown particularly strong performance, providing robust support for Tai Er's overall recovery [2] Group 2: Store Expansion and Customer Experience - As of December 31, 2025, Tai Er has opened a total of 243 "Fresh" model stores across 60 core cities in China, including 6 upgraded "New Tai Er Fresh Ingredients Sichuan Cuisine" stores, enhancing product structure and menu diversity [2] - The market feedback for the "Fresh" model has been positive, confirming its replicability across different cities and consumer scenarios [2] - The average customer spending for the main brands has remained relatively stable over several quarters, with a slight increase observed as the proportion of "Fresh" model stores rises, indicating the effectiveness of the company's focus on product strength and customer experience optimization [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Jiumaojiu (09922.HK), reported stable operational performance for its main brands in the fourth quarter of 2025, with positive trends in same-store sales and customer spending [1] Group 1: Operational Performance - The same-store average daily sales for the brand "Tai Er" in mainland China have turned positive year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of previous operational adjustments and store model upgrades [1] - The "Fresh" model stores have shown particularly strong performance, providing robust support for the overall recovery of Tai Er's operations [1] Group 2: Store Expansion and Model Implementation - As of December 31, 2025, Tai Er has opened a total of 243 "Fresh" model stores across 60 key cities in China, including 6 newly upgraded "New Tai Er Fresh Ingredients Sichuan Cuisine" stores, which have optimized product structure and menu diversity [1] - The positive market feedback since the launch of the "Fresh" model further validates its replicability across different cities and consumer scenarios [1] Group 3: Customer Spending Trends - The average customer spending for the company's main brands has remained relatively stable over multiple quarters [1] - With the increasing proportion of "Fresh" model stores, there has been a slight rebound in average customer spending, reflecting the ongoing strategic effectiveness in enhancing product strength and customer experience [1]

Core Viewpoint - The performance of major brands under the company is showing steady improvement, with specific operational adjustments and new store models contributing positively to sales recovery [2] Group 1: Brand Performance - In Q4 2025, the table turnover rates for major brands were 3.0 for Tai Er, 2.3 for Song Hot Pot, and 2.1 for Jiu Mao Jiu, with same-store average daily sales decreasing by 3.0%, 19.0%, and 16.4% year-on-year respectively [1] - Tai Er's same-store average daily sales in mainland China have turned positive year-on-year, indicating the effectiveness of previous operational adjustments and store model upgrades [2] - The "Fresh" model stores have shown particularly strong performance, providing robust support for Tai Er's overall business recovery [2] Group 2: Store Expansion and Customer Experience - As of December 31, 2025, Tai Er has opened a total of 243 "Fresh" model stores across 60 core cities in China, including 6 upgraded "New Tai Er • Fresh Ingredients Sichuan Cuisine" stores [2] - The introduction of the "Fresh" model has received positive market feedback, confirming its replicability in various cities and consumer scenarios [2] - The average customer spending for major brands has remained relatively stable over multiple quarters, with a slight increase observed as the proportion of "Fresh" model stores rises, reflecting the company's strategic focus on product strength and customer experience optimization [2]

Core Viewpoint - Jiumaojiu Group plans to acquire a 49% stake in North American hot pot chain Big Way Hot Pot for a total transaction amount of $43 million, aiming to expand its presence in the North American market [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition Details - The acquisition will cost approximately 3.01 billion RMB and will make Jiumaojiu the largest shareholder of Big Way, which operates 21 restaurants in Vancouver, Toronto, and California [1][2][4]. - Big Way's projected after-tax profits for 2023 and 2024 are $210,100 and $983,900, respectively, with an estimated market valuation of $76.89 million [4]. - Jiumaojiu previously acquired a 10% stake in Big Way in July 2025, and the acquisition is expected to be finalized by March 31, 2026 [4][5]. Group 2: Strategic Rationale - The acquisition aligns with Jiumaojiu's strategy to explore overseas opportunities for Chinese cuisine, building on the success of its brand "Tai Er" in Southeast Asia and North America [5][7]. - Jiumaojiu aims to leverage Big Way's established business foundation in North America to enhance its operational management and brand network, potentially leading to increased store numbers and revenue [5][6]. Group 3: Market Context - The North American market for Chinese cuisine is still in its early stages, with Jiumaojiu recognizing the growth potential in this sector [7][10]. - Other Chinese hot pot brands, such as Haidilao and Liu Yishou, have already established a presence in North America, indicating a competitive landscape [8][10]. - Jiumaojiu's approach differs from the mainstream direct or franchise models adopted by other brands, providing a new strategy for Chinese restaurants entering overseas markets [6][10].