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棉花:乐观情绪推动期价震荡上涨
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 06:31
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Optimistic sentiment drives the cotton futures price to fluctuate and rise [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 had a closing price of 13,845 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.62% and a daily increase of 0.29%. Its trading volume was 250,977 lots (down 833 from the previous day), and the open interest was 875,506 lots (up 11,714) [1]. - CY2509 had a closing price of 20,170 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32% and a daily increase of 0.22%. Its trading volume was 7,428 lots (down 1,999), and the open interest was 21,860 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 had a price of 69.32 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.81% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,302 sheets (down 32), and the effective forecast was 295 sheets (unchanged) [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 2 sheets (unchanged), and the effective forecast was 3 sheets (down 1) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 15,010 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) [1]. - Cotton in Shandong was priced at 15,115 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan (0.61%) [1]. - Cotton in Hebei was priced at 15,018 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan (0.72%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,109 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan (0.59%) [1]. - The international cotton index M was 76.27 cents/pound, up 1 cent (0.71%) [1]. - Pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,933 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.04%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spot trading was mostly sluggish, with a strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Partial basis - locked transactions occurred, and the overall basis remained stable. The sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5) was CF09 + 1300 - 1600, with some low - price supplies at 1250 - 1300 and corps supplies at 1650 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck changed little [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn stopped falling and rebounded, with little change in the mainstream price. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, but the acceptance was average. The pure - cotton fabric market remained sluggish, with few recent orders and slow shipment. The performance of home textile grey fabrics was also worse than before, and many weaving factories in Nantong had no new orders and continued to reduce production [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, benefiting from the overall optimistic market sentiment. The market was waiting for the USDA's area outlook and quarterly inventory report early on Monday [1][2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]