Report Overview - Report Date: October 23, 2025 [2] - Industry: Cotton [1] - Research Analysts: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The spot cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume of pure cotton yarn remained stable, with a slight recovery in downstream consumption due to the recent significant temperature drop in the southern regions of the Yangtze River. The downstream enterprises still adopted a "buy-as-you-go" approach, and the scale of new orders was limited. The operating rate of spinning mills increased slightly but was still lower than the same period in previous years. The price of the pure cotton cloth market was stable and weak, and the fabric mills maintained a slight loss. In the domestic market, the purchase price of machine-picked cottonseed in Xinjiang moved closer to the high price, and the high price did not continue to rise significantly. As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons. The terminal demand in the industrial downstream showed a slight recovery, but the characteristic of a weak peak season still persisted. Domestic consumption performed better than exports, and the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year. The hedging pressure above the peak season of new cotton listing and processing still needed to be digested, and the short-term trading center slowly moved up, trading time for space [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operational Suggestions - Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. The prices of CF2601, CF2605, and CF2609 contracts increased by 0.30%, 0.11%, and 0.15% respectively. The latest cotton price index of grade 328 was 14,772 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The purchase price of machine-picked cottonseed in Xinjiang was between 6.35 - 6.5 yuan/kg, and the theoretical cost of current purchase was mostly above 14,600 yuan (delivered basis). As of October 16, the national new cotton picking progress was 58.8%, 4.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, China imported 100,000 tons of cotton, a month-on-month increase of 30,000 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 20,000 tons. The terminal demand in the industrial downstream showed a slight recovery, and the retail sales of textile and clothing in September increased by 4.7% year-on-year [7][8]. 3.2 Industry News - As of October 21, 2025, a total of 928 cotton processing enterprises across the country processed cotton and carried out notarized inspections in accordance with the requirements of the cotton quality inspection system reform plan. The cumulative inspection volume was 978,600 tons, an increase of 93,100 tons from the previous day. Among them, the inspection volume in Xinjiang was 969,100 tons, an increase of 92,200 tons from the previous day; the inspection volume in the inland areas was 7,400 tons [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts, including the China Cotton Price Index, cotton spot price, cotton futures price, cotton basis change, CF1 - 5 spread, CF5 - 9 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, cotton commercial inventory, cotton industrial inventory, and warehouse receipt volume, etc. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [16][17][19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The future trend of US cotton is expected to be mainly volatile, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a slightly weakening volatile trend. The trading strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and options [8]. - With the new cotton harvest, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand in the market is mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures price is limited [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts decreased by 35, 40, and 30 respectively; CY01 decreased by 70, while CY05 and CY09 remained unchanged. Trading volumes and open interest showed different degrees of increase or decrease [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 20, while CY IndexC32S remained stable. The price of FCY IndexC33S increased by 21, and the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 [3]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and yarn inter - month spreads and cross - product spreads, the values and their changes varied. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was - 55 with a 5 - point increase, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6025 with a 35 - point decrease [3]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News**: In Hutubi County, 869,000 mu of cotton has entered the harvest period with a 100% mechanized harvest rate. The spot price of new cotton in 2025/26 in the inland warehouse is stable. In September, the textile and clothing export volume was 24.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.45%. From January to September 2025, the cumulative export was 221.686 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.33% [6]. - **Trading Logic**: This year, the output of Xinjiang cotton is high, and ginneries' enthusiasm for acquisition is average. There is no large - scale rush to purchase, and the acquisition price is around 6 yuan/kg. With the large - scale listing of new cotton, there will be selling hedging pressure on the futures market. The peak season demand is mediocre, and its boosting effect on the futures price is limited [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, expect US cotton to be volatile and Zhengzhou cotton to be slightly weakening volatile. For arbitrage and options, adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News**: The Zhengzhou cotton market continued to be volatile and weak last night. The theoretical cash flow of inland spinning enterprises turned from loss to profit, and the profit of Xinjiang spinning enterprises increased. The pure - cotton yarn market is still divided, with Xinjiang performing better than the inland. The overall price of pure - cotton yarn is in a stalemate, stable with a downward trend. The demand for pure - cotton cloth is weak, and the market price is stable with a downward trend [8][9]. Options - **Option Data**: The closing prices, price changes, implied volatilities, and other data of CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC are provided. The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly, and the implied volatilities of different option contracts varied [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in both open interest and trading volume. The option strategy is to wait and see [14][15]. Related Attachments The report provides multiple charts, including the 1% tariff - based price difference between domestic and foreign cotton, the basis of cotton in January, May, and September, the spread between CY05 - CF05 and CY01 - CF01, and the spread between different cotton contracts [16][17][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that both domestic and international cotton futures are weak. The ICE cotton futures are under pressure due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound. The domestic cotton market has new cotton pre - sale offers increasing, but the cotton textile industry has a general trading atmosphere, with downstream pre - holiday stocking not being prominent, and the cotton fabric market showing a weak and stable trend [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: CF2601 closed at 13,350 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.41% and a night - session close of 13,245 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.79%. CY2511 closed at 19,495 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 0.59% and a night - session close of 19,400 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.49%. ICE cotton 12 closed at 65.4 cents/pound with a decline of 1.40% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of CF2601 was 321,488 lots, an increase of 68,032 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 732,424 lots, a decrease of 9,125 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,882 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 5,258 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,173, a decrease of 224, and the valid forecasts were 22, an increase of 10. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, with no change [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of South Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,340 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The 3128B index was 14,953 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread decreased by 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous day, and the spread between North Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: New cotton pre - sale offers in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase. The purchase price of machine - picked cotton seeds in Xinjiang is temporarily stable, with farmers and ginneries having a strong wait - and - see attitude. The mainstream sales basis of 41 - grade non - lightly spotted North Xinjiang double - 29 machine - picked cotton with less than 3.5% impurity is around CF01 + 1100, with higher offers ranging from 1200 - 1300, for delivery before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading atmosphere in the pure cotton yarn market is general, and downstream pre - holiday stocking is not prominent. Spinning mills have suffered many losses in the early stage, and the current inventory does not pose a great pressure. Cotton yarn prices have not dropped significantly, and they are mainly sold at the prevailing price with discounts negotiated for actual orders. The price of pure cotton cloth is running weakly and stably, with the market trading atmosphere worse than before [2]. - **US Cotton**: The ICE cotton futures declined. Due to rising US cotton listing pressure and poor export performance, the ICE cotton is under pressure, and there is technical selling pressure after breaking below 66 cents per pound [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the trend intensity ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market continues to focus on the listing of new cotton. The domestic cotton spot market is mainly new - cotton pre - sales in the 2025/26 season, with stable to slightly discounted prices and relatively good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 season spot is decreasing. The domestic cotton textile market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, slow de - stocking, and weak prices. ICE cotton lacks upward momentum due to new US cotton listings and poor export sales [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,405 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily decline of 0.92% and a night - session closing price of 13,490 yuan/ton with a 0.63% increase. CY2511 closed at 19,610 yuan/ton yesterday with a 0.86% decline and a night - session closing price of 19,760 yuan/ton with a 0.76% increase. ICE US cotton 12 was at 66.27 cents/pound with a 0.20% increase. The trading volume of CF2601 was 253,456 lots, a decrease of 68,886 lots from the previous day, and the position was 741,549 lots, an increase of 4,299 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,944 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots from the previous day, and the position was 6,640 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts was 3,397, a decrease of 186 from the previous day, and the valid forecast was 12, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,677 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price in Shandong was 15,005 yuan/ton, a decrease of 31 yuan or 0.21% from the previous day; the price in Hebei was 14,971 yuan/ton, a decrease of 47 yuan or 0.31% from the previous day. The 3128B index was 15,001 yuan/ton, a decrease of 42 yuan or 0.28% from the previous day. The international cotton index M was 73.83 cents/pound, unchanged. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,580 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan or 0.17% from the previous day, and the arrival price was 21,497 yuan/ton, an increase of 6 yuan or 0.03% from the previous day [1]. - **Spread Data**: The spread between CF1 - 5 was 0, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Cotton spot market offers are mostly for 2025/26 new - cotton pre - sales, with stable to slightly discounted prices and good pre - sales transaction atmosphere. The 2024/25 spot is decreasing. Recently, the purchase price of seed cotton is stable and slightly weak, with the lower purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton with a lint percentage of 40% at about 5.9 - 6.1 yuan/kg and the higher purchase price at about 6.2 - 6.35 yuan/kg. The pre - sale price of new cotton in Kashgar in 2025/26 is around 14,500 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1000 - 1050, for delivery before mid - October. The lower pre - sale price of the 2025/26 new - cotton blind box is 14,650 - 14,750 yuan/ton, and the pre - sale basis is CF01 + 1050 - 1100, for delivery at the end of September and before mid - October [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The pure - cotton yarn market has seasonal rigid - demand purchases, with cautious purchases by traders and slow de - stocking. The price is negotiated according to the order volume. The price of pure - cotton cloth is stable and slightly weak, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. Currently, large new orders for weaving factories are few, and small orders are the main source to maintain production [2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate around 66 cents/pound. The new US cotton has started to be listed, and poor export sales make ICE cotton lack upward momentum [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend, with the value ranging from - 2 to 2 [5].

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable recovery in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy, aiming to maintain prices at a reasonable level [1] - A new policy financial tool worth 500 billion yuan will be introduced, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure, with participation from policy banks [1] - Domestic cotton inventory is decreasing faster than the same period last year, leading to increased tension by the end of September [1] Group 2 - The cotton market is experiencing tight supply before the new cotton harvest, with a possibility of rush harvesting in some areas, providing short-term support to the market [1] - The demand for cotton is expected to be observed as the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking season begins, with a recommendation to buy on dips [1] - The textile and apparel export data for July shows pressure, with markets in ASEAN, EU, and the US weakening both year-on-year and month-on-month [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Optimistic sentiment drives the cotton futures price to fluctuate and rise [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - CF2509 had a closing price of 13,845 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.62% and a daily increase of 0.29%. Its trading volume was 250,977 lots (down 833 from the previous day), and the open interest was 875,506 lots (up 11,714) [1]. - CY2509 had a closing price of 20,170 yuan/ton with a night - session increase of 0.32% and a daily increase of 0.22%. Its trading volume was 7,428 lots (down 1,999), and the open interest was 21,860 lots (up 1,045) [1]. - ICE Cotton No.12 had a price of 69.32 cents/pound with a daily increase of 0.81% [1]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: - Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts were 10,302 sheets (down 32), and the effective forecast was 295 sheets (unchanged) [1]. - Cotton yarn warehouse receipts were 2 sheets (unchanged), and the effective forecast was 3 sheets (down 1) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: - Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 15,010 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) from the previous day [1]. - Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was priced at 14,760 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan (0.27%) [1]. - Cotton in Shandong was priced at 15,115 yuan/ton, up 92 yuan (0.61%) [1]. - Cotton in Hebei was priced at 15,018 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan (0.72%) [1]. - The 3128B index was 15,109 yuan/ton, up 89 yuan (0.59%) [1]. - The international cotton index M was 76.27 cents/pound, up 1 cent (0.71%) [1]. - Pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was priced at 20,380 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - The arrival price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 21,933 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan (0.04%) [1]. - **Spread Data**: - The CF9 - 1 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan from the previous day [1]. - The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: Spot trading was mostly sluggish, with a strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Partial basis - locked transactions occurred, and the overall basis remained stable. The sales basis for 2024/25 North and South Xinjiang machine - picked cotton (3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5) was CF09 + 1300 - 1600, with some low - price supplies at 1250 - 1300 and corps supplies at 1650 - 1750 for inland self - pick - up. The freight for cotton leaving Xinjiang by truck changed little [1][2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The price of pure - cotton yarn stopped falling and rebounded, with little change in the mainstream price. Some manufacturers raised their quotes, but the acceptance was average. The pure - cotton fabric market remained sluggish, with few recent orders and slow shipment. The performance of home textile grey fabrics was also worse than before, and many weaving factories in Nantong had no new orders and continued to reduce production [1][2]. - **US Cotton**: Last Friday, ICE cotton futures continued the rebound trend, benefiting from the overall optimistic market sentiment. The market was waiting for the USDA's area outlook and quarterly inventory report early on Monday [1][2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The cotton trend intensity was 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]