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低轨卫星行业加速,陶瓷管壳有望快速扩容
Changjiang Securities· 2026-01-13 09:14
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and is maintained [12] Core Insights - The low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite industry is accelerating, with the ceramic shell for T/R components expected to expand rapidly due to the high added value of the products and broad prospects [6][8] - The global active satellite count is projected to exceed 12,000 by July 2025, with LEO satellites accounting for 67.5% (over 8,100 satellites) [6][18] - The global satellite internet market is expected to reach $30 billion by 2025, continuing to grow at a high rate [6][18] - The domestic market for ceramic shells used in low Earth orbit satellites is projected to reach 3.8 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 94.4% from 2024 to 2030 [8][42] Summary by Sections Low Earth Orbit Satellite Industry - The satellite internet is recognized as a new generation of communication infrastructure, providing ubiquitous network services globally [6][18] - Countries are actively deploying LEO satellite communication systems, with notable players including SpaceX, OneWeb, and domestic companies like China Star Network and Kuiper [6][19] T/R Components and Radar Technology - T/R components are critical for satellite signal transmission and reception, with a significant portion of the cost attributed to these components in radar systems [7][30] - Active phased array radar systems, which utilize T/R components, are becoming mainstream due to their advantages in speed, anti-jamming capabilities, and multi-target tracking [7][30] Market Potential for Ceramic Shells - The ceramic shell's value in a single low Earth orbit satellite is estimated at around 1.1 million yuan, contributing to the overall satellite manufacturing cost [8][42] - The market for ceramic shells is expected to grow significantly, driven by advancements in technology and increasing demand for satellite communication systems [8][42] Company Spotlight: Guoci Materials - Guoci Materials is a leading player in high-end ceramic materials, focusing on the development and production of various ceramic products, including those for satellite applications [9][51] - The company has established a comprehensive innovation system and aims to become a leading platform in the precision ceramic industry [9][51]