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2025 年小微贷款 ABS 回顾与展望:发行市场稳增可期,资产信用基本面依然稳固
Lian He Zi Xin· 2026-02-09 11:52
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the micro - loan ABS market maintained growth vitality. With policy driving, the ABN sub - market's popularity continued to rise, and multiple market players accelerated their layout. Facing the "asset shortage" pressure in the era of low - interest rates, the market was entering a new stage of actively embracing high - quality underlying assets. In the future, the micro - loan ABS market is expected to have growth space, with the co - existence of head - effect and diversification among asset providers, and the securities' low - interest environment will continue. Meanwhile, the asset credit quality will remain stable, and the risk - bearing capacity of outstanding securities will gradually increase, making it still worthy of allocation [2][46][47][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Micro - loan ABS Market Issuance Situation 3.1.1 ABN Market Continuously Drives Double - growth of Micro - loan ABS - In 2025, the overall number and scale of micro - loan ABS issuances increased slightly year - on - year, and the market share remained stable. The total issuance was 268 units, with a 7.20% year - on - year increase, and the issuance scale was 269.813 billion yuan, a 14.05% year - on - year increase. The proportion in the total issuance scale of asset - backed securities was 11.85%, basically the same as last year. The ABN market was strong with 125 units issued, totaling 108.23 billion yuan, a 60.26% and 40.80% year - on - year increase respectively, ranking first. The exchange - market issuance number decreased by 16.88% to 133 units, but the scale increased by 8.42% to 102.938 billion yuan. The credit ABS market continued to decline, with 10 units issued, a 16.67% year - on - year decrease, and the scale decreased by 9.46% to 58.645 billion yuan [4][5]. 3.1.2 Trust Companies and Commercial Banks Remain the Main Issuers - In 2025, there were 30 initiators/ original equity holders for micro - loan ABS, with trust companies and commercial banks as the main issuers. Trust companies issued 207 units, with a scale of 174.272 billion yuan, accounting for over 60% in both number and scale, an increase from last year. The top three trust companies in terms of issuance scale were China Foreign Economy and Trade Trust, Huaxin Trust, and Huaneng Trust, accounting for 17.34%, 13.45%, and 12.15% respectively. Commercial banks issued 10 units, accounting for 3.73% in number, but the scale was 58.645 billion yuan, accounting for 21.74%. The "Feichi Jianpu" series of China Construction Bank accounted for 18.39%. The average issuance scale of commercial banks' single project was 5.865 billion yuan, significantly higher than other institutions (818 million yuan) [7][9]. 3.1.3 The Head - effect of Asset Providers is Significant but the Rhythms are Differentiated, with More Participating Institutions and Diversified Asset Types - In 2025, there were 6 types of asset providers for micro - loan ABS. Private banks continued to be active, with an issuance scale of 110.2 billion yuan from 104 units, a 56.53 - percentage - point increase from last year, accounting for 40.84%. Internet platforms maintained a relatively small single - period scale and a fast issuance rhythm, with 79.05 billion yuan from 106 units, a 26.08 - percentage - point increase, accounting for 29.30%. Commercial banks kept a stable rhythm, with 58.645 billion yuan from 10 units, a 10.01 - percentage - point decrease, accounting for 21.74%. The issuance rhythm of financing guarantee companies slowed down, with 15.854 billion yuan from 28 units, a 48.91 - percentage - point decrease, accounting for 5.88%. Small - loan companies and property insurance companies also remained active. The head - effect was still significant, with different issuance rhythms among leading institutions like MYbank, Ping An Guarantee, and Meituan. In addition, many new issuers entered the market in 2025 [11][13][17]. 3.1.4 The Securities Issuance Cost Stabilizes after a Decline, with Obvious Interest - rate Differences in Different Markets - In 2025, the issuance rate of micro - loan ABS generally followed the trend of the ChinaBond Medium - and - Short - Term Note Yield, rising slightly at first, falling in the middle of the year, and stabilizing in the second half. The average issuance rates of AAAsf - level securities within 1.5 years in credit ABS, ABN, and exchange - ABS were 1.79%, 1.99%, and 2.04% respectively, with credit ABS having a significantly lower rate [19][23]. 3.1.5 The Securities Issuance Levels and Layers are Diversified to Meet Investors' Diverse Product - Structure Needs - In 2025, most micro - loan ABS products had multi - layer structures. The 268 units issued involved 943 securities, among which 661 had credit ratings, with a scale of 243.413 billion yuan, and the ratings ranged from BBBsf to AAAsf. AAAsf - level securities accounted for 95.22% in scale, with 354 units issued and a scale of 231.79 billion yuan. The diversification of the layered structure and credit ratings could balance risks and returns more flexibly and enhance the product's attractiveness to investors [25][27]. 3.1.6 The Average Balance per Loan, Term, and Yield of Pooled Assets Show Differentiation - In terms of the average balance per loan, the credit ABS market had a higher average balance as its asset providers were all commercial banks with high - quality customers or collateral - backed loans. The exchange - ABS and ABN products had more diverse asset providers with lower - end customers and smaller, more dispersed loans. The weighted average contract term of all markets was within 3 years. The ABN and exchange - ABS had higher weighted average yields as their asset providers were mainly internet platforms, private banks, and small - loan companies, while the credit ABS had a yield as low as 4.11% due to its commercial - bank asset providers [30][33]. 3.2 Micro - loan ABS Performance during the Outstanding Period 3.2.1 The Outstanding Scale of the Micro - loan ABS Market Grows Steadily - By the end of 2025, the outstanding scale of the micro - loan ABS market was 224.336 billion yuan, accounting for 6.27%, with a 10.24% year - on - year increase, showing a stable growth trend after a decline in 2024 [35]. 3.2.2 The Asset Default Rate of Micro - loan ABS Remains Low, and the Asset Credit Quality Remains Stable - As of the end of 2025, the 90 + cumulative default rate of outstanding micro - loan ABS products was between 0.00% and 1.72%, and most were below 1.50%, with an average of 0.94%, a 0.20% increase from the end of 2024. Generally, commercial banks had a lower default rate than internet platforms. Improvements in asset - pool quality and transaction structure usually led to credit - rating upgrades for micro - loan ABS products, and there were no downgrades in 2025 [36][38][42]. 3.2.3 There are Large Differences in the Recycling Purchase Multiples during the Outstanding Period - In 2025, 194 out of 268 issued micro - loan ABS projects had a recycling purchase structure, accounting for 72.39%, mainly in exchange - ABS and ABN products, with internet platforms and trust companies as the main initiators. The average recycling purchase multiple of the selected samples was 2.19, with 2.41 for products with internet - platform asset providers and 2.13 for those with commercial - bank asset providers. The multiples varied greatly due to differences in product settings and outstanding periods [43][44]. 3.3 Summary and Outlook 3.3.1 Driven by Policies and Market Vitality, the Micro - loan ABS is Expected to Have Growth Space in the Future - In 2025, the ABN market was the most active in micro - loan ABS issuance, with a 40.11% share and a 40.80% year - on - year increase in scale. The exchange market also remained active, with a 38.15% share and an 8.42% year - on - year increase. The credit ABS market continued to decline, but commercial - bank credit ABS had a large single - period scale. With the support of inclusive - finance policies, all issuance markets are expected to develop stably [46]. 3.3.2 The Co - existence of Head - effect and Diversification among Asset Providers, and the Low - interest Environment of Securities Issuance Continue - In 2025, the head - effect of asset providers was significant, but more institutions participated in the market, enriching the asset types. The market activity is expected to increase. The issuance rate of micro - loan ABS securities remained low in 2025, and the low - interest environment is expected to continue [47]. 3.3.3 The Asset Credit Quality Remains Stable, the Risk - bearing Capacity of Outstanding Securities Increases, and it Still has Allocation Value in the Future - Although the cumulative default rate of micro - loan ABS assets varies, it remains at a low level. As the remaining term of the underlying assets shortens, the asset - pool quality will improve, and the credit support for senior securities will increase. With multiple factors, the micro - loan ABS still has allocation value [48].
基础资产表现整体符合预期,证券端整体兑付良好
Lian He Zi Xin· 2025-09-05 03:32
Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]