文｜硅谷101 电力供应短缺已成为美国AI产业扩张的最大瓶颈。根据摩根士丹利发布的最新报告，截至2028年，美 国数据中心的总电力需求将达到69吉瓦（GW），除去在建中的数据中心和电网可接入的电力，还有44 吉瓦的电力缺口，相当于44座核电站。 近期微软首席执行官萨提亚・纳德拉（Satya Nadella）在一档播客中也指出："我们目前面临的最大问 题不是算力，而是电力短缺。如果你无法提供足够的电力，那么即使拥有大量芯片，也只能让它们闲置 在仓库里。" 根据业内共识，每新增1吉瓦数据中心容量，建设成本约为500亿美元。面对以万亿为单位的投资规模， 很多人也开始讨论，我们是不是进入了一场AI的投资泡沫？ 本期《硅谷101》，主播泓君邀请了人气嘉宾郑迪，深度解答AI万亿基建的两个核心问题——电从哪儿 来？钱从哪儿来？以及手握大量电力的加密矿工能否成为解决本轮能源短缺的关键力量？郑迪作为2008 金融危机的亲历者，复盘了金融历史留给AI基建的警示。同时他也认为，当前还没有进入大规模借债 的阶段，一切才刚刚开始。 以下是这次对话内容的精选： 01 破解AI缺电的六条路径 泓君：我们之前做了一期讲整个AI大基建的节目， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the A-share market, highlighting its unique behavior compared to the US stock market, and suggests investment strategies suitable for a cautious market environment [4][5][6][12]. Market Analysis - The US government shutdown news led to a rise in US stocks, while the A-share market remained relatively calm, with the Shanghai Composite Index experiencing slight declines [4][5][6]. - Since the Shanghai Composite Index reached 4000 points, the market has been in a state of consolidation, indicating a short-term pressure point at this level [7][8]. - Nearing year-end, many investors are adopting a cautious approach, resulting in limited new capital entering the market [9]. - Although the trading volume remains around 2 trillion, it has decreased compared to the third quarter, reflecting a cooling market sentiment [10]. - The AI technology sector, which previously supported market growth, now requires time to digest emotions and valuations, leading to concerns about potential bubbles [12]. Investment Strategies - For investors seeking stability, the article recommends focusing on macro low-volatility strategies, which involve diversifying across stocks, bonds, and commodities to achieve a balanced performance independent of economic cycles [14]. - The low-correlation among various asset classes allows for complementary effects, enhancing returns while smoothing portfolio volatility, making it suitable for conservative investors [15]. - The article also introduces two additional strategies for stable investments: 1. **ABS Strategy**: This involves analyzing and purchasing Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) to achieve higher yields than traditional bonds, focusing on the quality of underlying assets [17]. 2. **Brokerage Fixed Income Asset Management Plans**: These plans offer better security and returns due to their backing by brokerages, strict internal controls, and high liquidity, making them suitable for short-term cash management [18]. Conclusion - The article emphasizes the importance of adopting a cautious investment approach, either through diversified strategies or maintaining high liquidity to seize market opportunities as they arise [19][20].

Core Insights - The approval of the second rental housing REIT expansion, 华夏基金华润有巢REIT, marks a significant development in the market, transitioning from a "first issuance" model to a "first issuance + expansion" model, indicating a shift towards sustainable asset management [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current average occupancy rate of eight rental housing REITs exceeds 96%, with collection rates above 98%, and both NOI and EBITDA are on the rise, showcasing the financial health of these assets [1][2] - In the context of overall rental pressure, rental housing REITs demonstrate strong resilience, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase in unit monthly rent in Q2, contrasting with a 3.5% decline in rental indices across 16 key cities [2] - The expansion of rental housing REITs is accelerating, with the first successful expansion project raising approximately 946 million yuan [2] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The implementation of the Housing Rental Regulations on September 15 has established clearer rules for capital entry and asset expansion, enhancing market stability and governance expectations [4] - Local measures are being implemented to convert existing properties into rental housing, increasing the availability of investable assets for REITs and ABS [4] Group 3: Financial and Investment Landscape - The active capital market has created a resilient cycle, with public REITs entering a phase of simultaneous issuance and expansion, improving the efficiency of price discovery [5][6] - The market is witnessing a structural change in valuation logic, shifting focus from individual project stability to the synergy and risk mitigation of asset portfolios [7] - Different types of investors are emerging, with long-term institutional funds favoring stable dividends and sustainable returns, while trading-oriented institutions focus on liquidity and price discovery [8]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Road and Bridge (600039) has shown significant growth in its financial performance for the third quarter of 2025, with notable increases in revenue and net profit, indicating a positive trend in the company's operational efficiency and market positioning [4][12]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 732.81 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.95% [4][12]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 53.0 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.04% increase compared to the previous year [4][12]. - In Q3 2025 alone, the company achieved a revenue of 297.45 billion yuan, marking a 14.0% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 25.2 billion yuan, which is a substantial 59.72% increase [4][12]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased to 60,504, up by 20.1% from June 30, 2025 [3][6]. - The average number of shares held per shareholder decreased from 172,900 shares to 143,700 shares, with an average market value of 1.1627 million yuan [3][6]. Market Activity - On October 31, 2025, the stock price closed at 9.48 yuan, up by 4.75%, with a trading volume of 674,100 shares and a total transaction value of 633 million yuan [1][2]. - The net inflow of main funds was 10.32 million yuan, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 24.37 million yuan [2][6]. Project and Order Acquisition - The company secured 380 new projects during the reporting period, with a total value of approximately 97.2 billion yuan, representing a 25.16% increase year-on-year [13]. - Significant projects include the successful bid for the Yanjing to Fengdu to Wulong expressway and various international projects, showcasing the company's expanding market reach [13][14]. Strategic Developments - The board approved a proposal to issue asset-backed securities (ABS) not exceeding 5 billion yuan, pending shareholder approval [20][21]. - The company has also initiated a share buyback program, having repurchased 2,028,900 shares, which is 0.0233% of the total share capital [15].

Core Viewpoint - NIO faces a lawsuit alleging it exaggerated financial data through its Battery as a Service (BaaS) model, leading to a significant drop in its stock price [1][2] Group 1: Legal and Financial Context - A regional sovereign fund filed a lawsuit against NIO in August, claiming the company inflated financial data through its BaaS model [1] - This is not the first time NIO has faced such allegations; a short-seller report in 2022 raised similar concerns, but an independent investigation confirmed compliance with US GAAP [2] - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange conducted a thorough review of NIO's financial practices during its 2022 IPO, which were publicly disclosed [2] Group 2: BaaS Model Analysis - The BaaS model allows consumers to purchase NIO vehicles without buying the battery, reducing the purchase price by approximately 25% to 30%, while charging a monthly rental fee for the battery [3] - Consumers pay about 75% of the vehicle price upfront, while the battery asset management company, Wuhan Weineng, pays the remaining 25% [3] - NIO recognizes full vehicle sales revenue upon delivery, while consumers pay a monthly rental fee ranging from 900 to 1300 RMB to the battery ownership company [3] Group 3: Market Focus and Future Outlook - Despite the lawsuit, the market's attention is expected to shift back to NIO's core fundamentals, including profitability and product cycles [5] - Analysts predict that NIO's losses will significantly narrow by Q4 2025 due to new model launches and cost control measures [5] - The upcoming L80 SUV is anticipated to launch in Q1 2026, with a competitive starting price of around 170,000 RMB, which is expected to drive sales [5]

Summary of Affirm's FY Conference Call - September 10, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Affirm (NasdaqGS:AFRM) - **Industry**: Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) Key Highlights 1. **Fiscal Q2 2025 Performance**: - Affirm reported a **43% year-over-year growth in GMV** (Gross Merchandise Volume) driven by strong demand for **0% APR loans** [4][5] - Achieved **operating income profitability** for the first time on a GAAP basis, marking a significant milestone [5] - **RLTC** (Revenue Less Transaction Costs) increased by **37% year-over-year** [5] - Adjusted operating income margin reached **27%, up four percentage points year-over-year** [5] 2. **Affirm Card Growth**: - GMV from the Affirm Card more than **doubled year-over-year**, with a **132% increase** [6] - The number of cardholders grew by **93%**, achieving a **10% attach rate** [6] - The card segment now constitutes over **10% of total GMV** [6] 3. **Market Trends**: - The BNPL industry is experiencing significant growth, outpacing e-commerce growth [6] - BNPL is becoming mainstream, with consumers and merchants increasingly expecting BNPL options at checkout [6][7] 4. **Offline Market Opportunity**: - Currently, offline transactions account for less than **3% of total GMV**, while the offline market is **six times larger than online** [8] - Affirm sees substantial growth potential in capturing offline market share [8] 5. **FY26 Guidance**: - Affirm expects GMV growth of **36% to 37%** for the first fiscal quarter and a minimum of **25.5%** for FY26 [9][10] - The company anticipates continued GAAP profitability [10] 6. **Consumer Health and Delinquency Rates**: - Overall consumer health remains strong, with **30+ day delinquencies down** year-over-year [13][14] - Charge-off rates for monthly installment products are approximately **3.5%**, and for Pay in 4 loans, around **60 basis points** [14] 7. **Funding Environment**: - The funding environment is described as **constructive**, with strong demand for Affirm's loans [16][18] - Affirm maintains a diversified funding strategy, utilizing both on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet funding [21][23] 8. **International Expansion**: - Affirm has launched in the UK and is exploring further expansion into markets like Australia, Netherlands, France, and Germany [12][58] - The company plans to leverage existing partnerships, such as with Shopify, to facilitate international growth [60] 9. **Competitive Differentiation**: - Affirm emphasizes long-term partnerships with funding sources, differentiating itself from competitors who may focus on short-term transactions [61][62] - The company prides itself on superior underwriting capabilities and a comprehensive product offering [63][64] 10. **Adaptive Checkout**: - Affirm's Adaptive Checkout allows for customized offers for each transaction, enhancing consumer experience and improving conversion rates [45][48] Additional Insights - Affirm's strategy includes a focus on data accumulation to improve underwriting and offer personalization [48] - The company is committed to maintaining strong credit outcomes, which are essential for sustaining funding relationships [19][65] - Affirm's approach to funding is characterized by a focus on sustainable growth and efficient capital access [65][66]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]

Core Insights - The largest music industry transactions in 2025 lack star power but compensate with scale, featuring three deals over $1 billion and the smallest at $450 million [1] - Notable transactions from last year include Sony Music's $1.27 billion acquisition of Queen's catalog and Blackstone's $1.6 billion purchase of Hipgnosis Songs Fund [1] - The most attention-grabbing deal this year is Taylor Swift's acquisition of her master recordings, which, despite its media coverage, is priced lower than the top five transactions [1] Group 1: Major Transactions - Concord is raising $1.65 billion through Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) to fund acquisitions, having previously completed significant ABS transactions in 2022 and 2023 [4] - Pophouse has raised $1.3 billion to acquire music catalogs and create experiences around these rights, with 30% of the funds already allocated to partnerships with various artists [6] - Warner Music Group (WMG) has established a $1.2 billion joint venture with Bain Capital to acquire recording and songwriting rights, with Goldman Sachs and Fifth Third Bank as joint lead arrangers [9] Group 2: Financing Trends - HarbourView Equity Partners has raised $500 million through ABS to seek opportunities in media, sports, and entertainment, focusing on music rights since its inception in 2021 [12] - WMG acquired a majority stake in Tempo Music for $450 million, with the company having spent over $1 billion on various artists' catalogs since its founding [14][15] - The growth of the music streaming market is creating an environment conducive to music-backed ABS transactions, with expectations for more such deals in the future [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bankruptcy crisis in the U.S. solar industry, highlighting Sunnova's impending bankruptcy as a significant event following the previous bankruptcy of Sunpower. Sunnova's financial struggles stem from a combination of high debt, operational losses, and adverse market conditions [1]. Group 1: Sunnova's Financial History - Sunnova, founded in 2012, became a capital darling, raising over $900 million through multiple funding rounds before going public in 2019, achieving a peak market value of $6 billion [2][3]. - Despite rapid revenue growth from $132 million in 2019 to an expected $840 million in 2024, Sunnova has never turned a profit, accumulating losses exceeding $1.5 billion since its IPO [4][3]. Group 2: Business Model and Funding Mechanism - Sunnova operates under an "Energy as a Service" (EaaS) model, allowing customers to install solar systems with no upfront costs, instead paying monthly fees under long-term contracts [6][5]. - To finance its operations, Sunnova packages its solar systems into asset-backed securities (ABS) and utilizes tax equity funds, with 70% of its funding coming from ABS and debt financing, and 30% from tax credit funds [8][7]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Risks - The company faces significant challenges due to rising interest rates, which have made ABS less attractive and increased its debt servicing costs, with interest payments consuming 25% of its total revenue in 2024 [11][10]. - Policy changes in California have led to a 47% drop in solar installation applications, resulting in a projected $140 million loss in expected revenue for Sunnova in 2024 [11][10]. - The overall U.S. solar market is experiencing a downturn, with a projected 12% decline in installations in 2024, contributing to a wave of bankruptcies among solar companies [13][12].