Summary of Affirm's FY Conference Call - September 10, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Affirm (NasdaqGS:AFRM) - **Industry**: Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) Key Highlights 1. **Fiscal Q2 2025 Performance**: - Affirm reported a **43% year-over-year growth in GMV** (Gross Merchandise Volume) driven by strong demand for **0% APR loans** [4][5] - Achieved **operating income profitability** for the first time on a GAAP basis, marking a significant milestone [5] - **RLTC** (Revenue Less Transaction Costs) increased by **37% year-over-year** [5] - Adjusted operating income margin reached **27%, up four percentage points year-over-year** [5] 2. **Affirm Card Growth**: - GMV from the Affirm Card more than **doubled year-over-year**, with a **132% increase** [6] - The number of cardholders grew by **93%**, achieving a **10% attach rate** [6] - The card segment now constitutes over **10% of total GMV** [6] 3. **Market Trends**: - The BNPL industry is experiencing significant growth, outpacing e-commerce growth [6] - BNPL is becoming mainstream, with consumers and merchants increasingly expecting BNPL options at checkout [6][7] 4. **Offline Market Opportunity**: - Currently, offline transactions account for less than **3% of total GMV**, while the offline market is **six times larger than online** [8] - Affirm sees substantial growth potential in capturing offline market share [8] 5. **FY26 Guidance**: - Affirm expects GMV growth of **36% to 37%** for the first fiscal quarter and a minimum of **25.5%** for FY26 [9][10] - The company anticipates continued GAAP profitability [10] 6. **Consumer Health and Delinquency Rates**: - Overall consumer health remains strong, with **30+ day delinquencies down** year-over-year [13][14] - Charge-off rates for monthly installment products are approximately **3.5%**, and for Pay in 4 loans, around **60 basis points** [14] 7. **Funding Environment**: - The funding environment is described as **constructive**, with strong demand for Affirm's loans [16][18] - Affirm maintains a diversified funding strategy, utilizing both on-balance sheet and off-balance sheet funding [21][23] 8. **International Expansion**: - Affirm has launched in the UK and is exploring further expansion into markets like Australia, Netherlands, France, and Germany [12][58] - The company plans to leverage existing partnerships, such as with Shopify, to facilitate international growth [60] 9. **Competitive Differentiation**: - Affirm emphasizes long-term partnerships with funding sources, differentiating itself from competitors who may focus on short-term transactions [61][62] - The company prides itself on superior underwriting capabilities and a comprehensive product offering [63][64] 10. **Adaptive Checkout**: - Affirm's Adaptive Checkout allows for customized offers for each transaction, enhancing consumer experience and improving conversion rates [45][48] Additional Insights - Affirm's strategy includes a focus on data accumulation to improve underwriting and offer personalization [48] - The company is committed to maintaining strong credit outcomes, which are essential for sustaining funding relationships [19][65] - Affirm's approach to funding is characterized by a focus on sustainable growth and efficient capital access [65][66]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a stable performance of micro-loan ABS with no downgrades in ratings, and a majority of securities have seen upgrades [2][30][32] Core Insights - The overall issuance scale of micro-loan ABS has slightly decreased, with a total of 126 issuances amounting to 1214.79 billion, a year-on-year decline of 9.67% [4][5] - The ABN market has shown significant growth, with a 181.82% increase in the number of issuances and a 96.06% increase in issuance scale, while the credit ABS market has contracted significantly [5][32] - The performance of micro-loan ABS in terms of default rates has remained stable, with most projects meeting expectations and some performing better than predicted [20][22][24] Market Overview - The issuance of micro-loan ABS is primarily driven by trust companies and state-owned commercial banks, with a notable increase in participation from private banks [8][15] - As of July 2025, there are 299 active micro-loan ABS products with a total outstanding scale of 1852.33 billion, representing 5.58% of the total market [16][19] Default Performance - The cumulative default rate for public micro-loan ABS has remained stable, with the highest recorded rate at 2.81%, and most projects showing low default levels [20][22] - The actual performance of micro-loan ABS has generally aligned with expectations, with a median ratio of actual to predicted default rates at 0.81 [24] Circular Purchase Structure - The average circular purchase rate for selected micro-loan ABS products is 86.91%, with internet institutions showing a significantly higher rate of 99.17% [27] - The circular purchase structure effectively addresses maturity mismatches and enhances financing efficiency [27] Future Outlook - The ABN and exchange ABS markets are expected to remain the main varieties for micro-loan ABS issuance, with significant growth potential in the credit ABS market [32] - The overall performance of micro-loan ABS during the holding period is expected to remain consistent, with gradual improvements in risk-bearing capacity for the securities [32]

Core Insights - The largest music industry transactions in 2025 lack star power but compensate with scale, featuring three deals over $1 billion and the smallest at $450 million [1] - Notable transactions from last year include Sony Music's $1.27 billion acquisition of Queen's catalog and Blackstone's $1.6 billion purchase of Hipgnosis Songs Fund [1] - The most attention-grabbing deal this year is Taylor Swift's acquisition of her master recordings, which, despite its media coverage, is priced lower than the top five transactions [1] Group 1: Major Transactions - Concord is raising $1.65 billion through Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) to fund acquisitions, having previously completed significant ABS transactions in 2022 and 2023 [4] - Pophouse has raised $1.3 billion to acquire music catalogs and create experiences around these rights, with 30% of the funds already allocated to partnerships with various artists [6] - Warner Music Group (WMG) has established a $1.2 billion joint venture with Bain Capital to acquire recording and songwriting rights, with Goldman Sachs and Fifth Third Bank as joint lead arrangers [9] Group 2: Financing Trends - HarbourView Equity Partners has raised $500 million through ABS to seek opportunities in media, sports, and entertainment, focusing on music rights since its inception in 2021 [12] - WMG acquired a majority stake in Tempo Music for $450 million, with the company having spent over $1 billion on various artists' catalogs since its founding [14][15] - The growth of the music streaming market is creating an environment conducive to music-backed ABS transactions, with expectations for more such deals in the future [16]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing bankruptcy crisis in the U.S. solar industry, highlighting Sunnova's impending bankruptcy as a significant event following the previous bankruptcy of Sunpower. Sunnova's financial struggles stem from a combination of high debt, operational losses, and adverse market conditions [1]. Group 1: Sunnova's Financial History - Sunnova, founded in 2012, became a capital darling, raising over $900 million through multiple funding rounds before going public in 2019, achieving a peak market value of $6 billion [2][3]. - Despite rapid revenue growth from $132 million in 2019 to an expected $840 million in 2024, Sunnova has never turned a profit, accumulating losses exceeding $1.5 billion since its IPO [4][3]. Group 2: Business Model and Funding Mechanism - Sunnova operates under an "Energy as a Service" (EaaS) model, allowing customers to install solar systems with no upfront costs, instead paying monthly fees under long-term contracts [6][5]. - To finance its operations, Sunnova packages its solar systems into asset-backed securities (ABS) and utilizes tax equity funds, with 70% of its funding coming from ABS and debt financing, and 30% from tax credit funds [8][7]. Group 3: Market Challenges and Risks - The company faces significant challenges due to rising interest rates, which have made ABS less attractive and increased its debt servicing costs, with interest payments consuming 25% of its total revenue in 2024 [11][10]. - Policy changes in California have led to a 47% drop in solar installation applications, resulting in a projected $140 million loss in expected revenue for Sunnova in 2024 [11][10]. - The overall U.S. solar market is experiencing a downturn, with a projected 12% decline in installations in 2024, contributing to a wave of bankruptcies among solar companies [13][12].