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小鹏汽车-W(09868.HK)2025年三季报点评:Q3业绩符合预期 AI业务布局持续完善
Ge Long Hui· 2025-11-21 03:57
Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors reported Q3 2025 earnings that met expectations, with significant revenue growth driven by new model deliveries [1] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 20.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5% [1] - Automotive sales revenue was 18.05 billion yuan, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] - Service and other income amounted to 2.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% [1] - Q3 2025 net loss narrowed to 380 million yuan from 480 million yuan in Q2 2025, with a non-GAAP net loss of 150 million yuan [1] - Gross margin improved, with a comprehensive gross margin of 20.1%, up 4.9 percentage points year-on-year and 2.8 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] - Automotive gross margin was 13.1%, slightly down due to product upgrades [1] Cost Management - R&D expense ratio for Q3 was 11.9%, showing a decrease of 4.2 and 0.2 percentage points year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter, respectively [1] - Selling, administrative, and general expense ratio was 12.2%, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.9 percentage points and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.4 percentage points [1] Sales Volume - Q2 2025 wholesale sales reached 116,000 units, representing a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4% [1] - The average selling price (ASP) per vehicle was 156,000 yuan [1] AI Business Development - Xiaopeng is advancing its AI business with clear implementation plans across various dimensions, including intelligent driving, Robotaxi, robotics, and flying cars [2] - The second-generation VLA model aims to enhance reasoning efficiency and response speed [2] - A partnership with Gaode for Robotaxi services is established, with plans to launch three models in 2026 [2] - The new generation IRON robot will focus on guide and shopping scenarios, with deployment expected in 2026 [2] - Plans for flying cars include test flights in 2026 and global deliveries in the second half of 2026 [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Rating - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 78.5 billion, 140.2 billion, and 201 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth of 92%, 79%, and 43% respectively [3] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are revised to -1.4 billion, 5.4 billion, and 9.5 billion yuan [3] - EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at -0.71, 2.81, and 4.99 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 26 and 15 for 2026 and 2027 [3] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to strengthening AI competitiveness [3]