摘要 2025 年 6 月零售终端销售额上半年同比下降 1.9%-2%，下半月转为增 长 2%左右，全年累计同比增长接近 6%，表明整体呈中个位数增长趋势， 但 6 月存在波动。 2025 年第一季度营收同比下降 1.9%，利润同比下降超过 38%，主要 原因是直营店增加导致费用高增、股权激励费用摊销以及利息和理财收 入减少，预计第二季度费用仍将维持高位。 公司调整了开店策略，预计 2025 年全年店铺数量将与 2024 年持平或 略有减少，与 2024 年净增 388 家店铺形成对比，主要原因是公司对店 铺平效和店效数据进行评估后，认为开店节奏不宜过快。 2024 年公司库存增加 4.9 亿元，同比增幅为 14%，预计加盟商库存也 同比增加，但增幅低于股份公司，初步评估约为 10%，受此影响， 2025 年第一季度批发业务表现疲软。 公司管理层对电商环境的预期高于实际，导致产供销计划较为乐观，但 实际销售低于预期，造成库存积压，公司通过弹性供应链策略和全域一 体化策略应对，但效果有限。 Q&A 2025 年第二季度公司零售终端的整体表现如何，与 618 促销活动及 5 月份的 数据相比有何特点？ 森马服饰 ...

2024年12月，森马在马来西亚的首家门店，在吉隆坡大型商业综合体1 UTAMA Shopping Centre正式开业。门店位 于商场1楼显眼的主通道区域，与mango，timberland等国际品牌相邻。不到一个月，森马又在 sunway pyramid mall 开设第二家门店，同时森马旗下儿童品牌巴拉巴拉也在Pavilion Kuala Lumpur 开设马来西亚首店。 巴拉巴拉海外门店 三家门店陆续开业，对森马来说只是过去近十年来海外市场拓展的一小步，某种程度上，也可以看作国牌服饰集 体出海的缩影。过去三十年，以森马为代表的一众国牌服饰，经历了世纪之交线下商业的"黄金十年"，又从电商 时代的残酷竞争中幸存下来，如今面对低迷而内卷的国内市场，视线纷纷转向海外，将出海作为拉动增长的必选 项。 在这条日益拥挤的赛道上，白牌商家依靠"四小龙"等电商平台的增长红利"以价换量"，品牌企业则看得更远，希 望借助这轮出海浪潮，参与到全球时尚行业竞争中，实现"全球化品牌"跃升。 背靠国内供应链与行业理解的沉淀，森马通过重点布局东南亚、积极拓展中东、"突破"欧美的地区策略，以"直营 全域布局+代理商合作"多渠道模式，探 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company's 1Q25 performance fell short of expectations, primarily due to higher-than-expected expense inputs, despite stable revenue growth driven by franchise shipments and retail recovery [1][2]. Revenue and Profitability - 1Q25 revenue was 3.079 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 214 million yuan, down 38.1% year-on-year - Non-recurring net profit was 194 million yuan, a decline of 42.7% year-on-year - The revenue performance was weaker than the overall terminal flow performance, partly due to the early timing of the 2025 Spring Festival, which led to some shipments being advanced to 4Q24 [1][2]. Cost Structure - Gross margin increased by 0.4 percentage points to 47.0%, attributed to a higher proportion of direct sales channels - Selling expense ratio rose by 4.1 percentage points to 28.6%, mainly due to increased advertising and marketing expenses, as well as higher depreciation and amortization costs from an increased number of stores - Management expense ratio increased by 0.7 percentage points to 5.1%, while financial expense ratio rose by 1.2 percentage points to -0.8%, mainly due to reduced interest income - Overall, net profit margin decreased by 4.1 percentage points to 7.0% [2]. Inventory and Cash Flow - As of the end of 1Q25, inventory increased by 29.4% to 3.347 billion yuan, with the proportion of goods within one year rising from 55% to 72% - Inventory turnover days increased by 45.1 days to 188.3 days - Accounts receivable rose by 19.2% to 1.217 billion yuan, with turnover days increasing by 7.3 days to 41.1 days - Operating cash flow net amount decreased by 81.7% year-on-year to 153 million yuan, primarily due to increased payments for goods [2]. Development Trends - The company is expected to maintain its aggressive store expansion strategy initiated in 2024, while dynamically adjusting based on the macroeconomic environment - The company will further evaluate the cost-to-benefit ratio of its expenditures, aiming to align expense growth more closely with revenue growth while controlling total annual expense inputs [3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 and 2026 remains unchanged at 1.197 billion yuan and 1.297 billion yuan, respectively - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 14.3x for 2025 and 13.2x for 2026 - The rating of outperforming the industry and the target price of 7.13 yuan remain unchanged, with the target price corresponding to a P/E of 16.1x and 14.8x for 2025 and 2026, indicating a potential upside of 12.3% from the current price [4].