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从欧债危机到投资热土:南欧咸鱼翻身 债市涨势如虹
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-06-18 13:08
Group 1 - The risk premium for Greek bonds relative to German bonds has fallen to its lowest level since 2008, indicating an improvement in the fiscal situation of regions that were at the core of the Eurozone debt crisis [1] - Stronger economic growth and the emerging theme of "Make Europe Great Again" are driving the strength of peripheral Eurozone markets, with Southern Europe showing more optimistic prospects compared to core regions [1][4] - The yield spread between Italian and German bonds has dropped below 100 basis points, reflecting increased investor confidence in Italy's current economic and political stability [4] Group 2 - The sentiment in the Mediterranean region is strengthening, with Greek bond yields now comparable to those of France, which is facing political turmoil and fiscal concerns [5] - Spain's economy has shown a growth rate of 3.2%, significantly higher than the Eurozone average of 0.9%, enhancing debt sustainability and reassuring bondholders [8] - Italy's deficit is projected to decrease from 7.2% last year to 2.9% by the end of 2026, while Spain's deficit is expected to drop from 3.2% to 2.5% [8] Group 3 - European stock markets have also benefited from improved confidence, with Italian and Spanish stock markets rising by 15% and 20% respectively since the beginning of the year [11] - The risk of Eurozone disintegration that emerged during the COVID-19 pandemic has dissipated, with Italian five-year CDS at its lowest level since at least 2010 [13] - Despite the reduced risk of disintegration, France remains a concern, and recent political risks have re-emerged in Spain [13]