24日，最新公布的美国上周初请失业金人数低于预期，美联储一月降息概率或进一步降低。 此外，对美联储，特朗普也释放最明确信号。据最新消息，特朗普表示，他希望自己提名的美联储主席 能在经济向好时降息。特朗普说道："与我意见相左的人永远都当不上美联储主席。" 对于特朗普的最新表态，有外媒评论称，这是迄今最明确的信号，显示特朗普渴望能提名一位致力于降 息的美联储主席。 降息大消息 12月24日，美国劳工部公布的数据显示，美国12月20日当周首次申请失业救济人数降至21.4万人，预期 和前值为22.4万人。这一数字已回落至2021年11月的水平，表明劳动力市场仍未见明显压力。 数据显示，美国劳动力市场裁员规模持续保持在低位。虽然百事、惠普等企业近期宣布了裁员计划，但 尚未观察到大规模实际裁员的出现。 就业市场的回温使得美联储一月降息概率或进一步降低。 据CME"美联储观察"：美联储2026年1月降息25个基点的概率为15.5%，维持利率不变的概率为84.5%。 美联储到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为42.2%，维持利率不变的概率为51.8%，累计降息50个基点 的概率为6%。 贝莱德策略师指出，美联储在2026年预 ...

编者按 全球金融版图风云变幻，美联储独立性遭遇挑战，地缘政治冲突发，安全资产的定义正被重新书写。在 这场没有硝烟的货币战争中，人民币如何把握历史机遇，从区域走向全球，成为投资者心中的新"安全 港"？本文深度剖析全球安全资产格局的重构趋势，揭秘人民币国际化战略新路径，为我国在全球金融 格局变动中把握机遇、应对挑战提供了重要参考。 01 引言 战后国际货币体系的两个关键支柱，一是美元作为主导储备货币的信用基础，二是以美联储为代表的独 立中央银行制度。前者提供全球计价与清算的名义锚，后者为美国国债与美元资产赋予安全资产的信任 背书。然而，进入特朗普第二任期以来，行政权对独立机构的再边界化、"影子美联储"构想，以及围绕 美联储理事的罢免争议等，全球投资者正在重新考虑"美元=安全资产"这一长期假设。2025年4 月，"Sell America"交易一度主导全球市场：美元指数、美债与美股罕见同步下跌，黄金、瑞郎和部分 小币种资产成为新一轮避险对象，以往股跌、债涨、美元升的避险相关性出现结构性破裂。与此同时， 自2022年俄乌冲突爆发以来，西方冻结俄罗斯外汇储备、将部分冻结资产划拨用于支援乌克兰的举措， 进一步强化了美元武 ...

Core Insights - The "Financial Reception Room" mechanism has successfully facilitated 35 targeted financial enterprise connections, addressing financing challenges for 368 companies, with 312 of them being private enterprises, accounting for 84.8% of the total [2][4]. Group 1: Mechanism Features - The mechanism emphasizes precision and efficiency by selecting around 10 key enterprises with financial needs for targeted face-to-face meetings with provincial financial institutions, allowing for quick feedback on financing issues [4]. - Financial institutions conduct in-depth due diligence and provide tailored comprehensive financial service plans to help enterprises overcome challenges and grow [5]. Group 2: Addressing Pain Points - Many private enterprises face financing difficulties, such as lacking collateral despite having strong technological attributes or facing long payment cycles that strain cash flow [5]. - Financial institutions match suitable financial products to the actual needs of enterprises, including patent loans, knowledge property pledge financing, and supply chain products, while providing detailed explanations of product terms and conditions [5]. Group 3: Multi-Party Participation - The financial connection events involve not only banks but also guarantee companies, local asset management firms, and technology financial platforms, providing comprehensive financial services to enterprises [6]. - Industry authorities and associations introduce support policies and development trends, guiding enterprises in utilizing policies for transformation and equipment upgrades [6]. Group 4: Expanding Fields and Empowerment - The connection activities have expanded beyond key industrial chains to include technology, agriculture, culture, and foreign trade, with loans of 2.4 billion yuan allocated to stimulate technological enterprises [6]. - Support for 117 leading private agricultural enterprises has resulted in loans of 38.7 billion yuan, aiding in production scale expansion and equipment upgrades [6].

智通财经记者 | 刘婷 经济合作与发展组织（OECD）本周发布报告称，全球主要经济体进一步降息的空间已不大，预计将在2026年底前结束 降息周期。 OECD预计，到2026年底前，美联储只会再降息两次，将基准联邦基金利率从目前的3.75%-4.00%降至3.25%-3.50%，然 后在2027年维持这一水平；英国央行可能会在明年上半年停止降息；欧元区和加拿大明年都不会降息；日本将继续稳步 收紧其货币政策。 美联储自2024年9月重启降息以来，截至目前已降息5次。下一次货币政策会议将于12月9-10日召开。11月底以来，多位 美联储官员公开表达对降息的支持，导致市场大幅提高了本月降息的预期。北京时间周五11:00左右，芝加哥商品交易 所FedWatch显示，美联储本月降息25个基点的概率为87%。 中国人民大学重阳金融研究院研究员刘英也对智通财经表示，欧元区货币宽松的空间很有限。"通胀粘性是制约欧元区 降息的首要因素，最近数据显示其通胀有反弹迹象。此外，欧元区国家的财政可持续压力也在上升，相对于其他国家， 欧盟对成员国有赤字率这一硬性指标红线要求。"她说。 "在许多发达经济体中，实际政策利率已接近或处于实际中性 ...

Core Insights - Global markets are currently experiencing a short-term oscillation and a complex interplay of major central bank policies, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a rising probability of a Bank of Japan rate hike [1][2] Group 1: Central Bank Policies - The Federal Reserve is set to hold a meeting on December 12-13, while the Bank of Japan will announce its interest rate decision on December 19 [2] - Kristina Hooper from Man Group highlights that the rising yield of Japanese government bonds could increase borrowing costs for governments already facing challenges [2] Group 2: Market Performance - U.S. stock index futures are collectively declining, with the S&P 500 futures down 0.07%, Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.07%, and Dow futures down 0.10% [3][4] - The Japanese 10-year government bond yield fell by 2 basis points to 1.855% following strong auction demand [3][4] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains stable at 4.08% [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators - U.S. manufacturing activity contracted for the fourth consecutive month in November, with the largest decline in four months due to weak orders [2] - Upcoming economic reports, including the November ADP private sector employment report and the preliminary consumer confidence index for December, are expected to provide further insights into the labor market and inflation [2] Group 4: Commodity and Cryptocurrency Trends - Gold prices fell by 0.6% to $4206.48 per ounce, while silver dropped over 1.2% to $57.27 per ounce [4][9] - Bitcoin rebounded by 0.7% to $87053.6, following a significant sell-off that led to nearly $1 billion in leveraged positions being liquidated [4][13]

Core Viewpoint - Investment firms, including Columbia Threadneedle, are closely monitoring U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS) as a refuge from the high valuations of U.S. corporate bonds and a wave of tech bond issuances that may impact returns [1] Group 1: Corporate Bond Market - JPMorgan strategists predict that the total issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds, excluding refinancing, could exceed $800 billion in 2026, representing a net increase of approximately 54% from this year [1] - The majority of this issuance is expected to come from tech companies investing in artificial intelligence infrastructure, such as data centers [1] - JPMorgan anticipates that the spread of U.S. high-grade corporate bonds will widen by about 0.15 percentage points in 2026 due to the large volume of issuances [1] Group 2: Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) - MBS are projected to deliver the strongest returns in two decades, with the Bloomberg U.S. MBS Index rising by 8.35% as of last Friday, the best performance since 2002 [1] - Morgan Stanley notes that while corporate bond supply is increasing, the net supply of MBS may only see a slight rise next year due to high home prices and mortgage rates suppressing home buying activity [5] - Demand for MBS is expected to be stronger, particularly from real estate investment trusts (REITs) that are purchasing more MBS due to high valuations of their stocks [5] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Columbia Threadneedle's investment manager, Alex Christensen, indicates a gradual shift towards MBS as long-term investment-grade bond spreads fail to provide sufficient buffer against various risks, including increased issuance and deteriorating fundamentals [6] - Some investors are reallocating funds from corporate bonds to other securitized debt products, seeking higher yields [6] - Loomis Sayles' portfolio manager, Brian Kennedy, is focusing on bonds that offer higher yields than MBS, such as mortgage obligations and bonds backed by franchise fees, while attempting to minimize interest rate risk [6]

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on November 24, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering, amounting to 338.7 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the winning bid [1] - On the same day, 283 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net injection of 55.7 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - The interbank market in China showed a relaxed funding environment, with overnight repurchase rates slightly decreasing to around 1.32% [3] - The overnight quotes in the anonymous X-repo system remained around 1.3%, with a supply scale of about 100 billion yuan [3] - Non-bank institutions were borrowing overnight funds against pledged credit bonds at rates between 1.47% and 1.48% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. was reported at 3.91% [3] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit from major banks was around 1.64%, showing a slight increase from the previous day [7] Group 4: Major Interest Rate Bond Yields - The yields for various government bonds were reported, with the 1-year government bond yield at 1.4025%, and the 10-year bond yield at 1.6900% [9] Group 5: Recent MLF Operations - The central bank plans to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November, as 900 billion yuan of MLF is set to mature [13] - The total medium-term liquidity released through MLF and reverse repos in November is 600 billion yuan, maintaining a relatively high level for four consecutive months [13] Group 6: Bond Market Developments - The central bank successfully issued 45 billion yuan in central bank bills in Hong Kong on November 24, with a 3-month issuance of 30 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.60% [13] - The issuance of local government bonds in Inner Mongolia is scheduled for December 1, amounting to 10.4 billion yuan [17]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing sell-off in Japanese government bonds signals significant concerns regarding the country's fiscal health, exacerbated by a proposed large-scale economic stimulus plan exceeding 20 trillion yen, which could further strain Japan's finances [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Japanese government bond yields have surged, with the 10-year yield reaching 1.8%, the highest since 2008, and the 40-year yield hitting a historical peak of 3.695% [2]. - The Nikkei 225 index has experienced substantial declines, erasing most gains since the new Prime Minister's election, indicating investor anxiety [2]. - The Japanese yen has weakened against the dollar, falling below 157 yen per dollar, reflecting market instability [2]. Group 2: Government Actions and Plans - The government is preparing a supplementary budget of at least 25 trillion yen to support economic recovery and protect households from rising prices, which is expected to lead to increased issuance of long-term bonds [2][4]. - Recent discussions between government officials and the Bank of Japan focused on maintaining communication regarding market conditions, although no specific currency discussions were held [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Concerns - Investors are increasingly worried about the fiscal risks associated with the proposed stimulus, fearing that it may necessitate further bond issuance [4]. - The recent cancellation of the annual "primary balance" target and proposed changes to corporate governance have heightened investor concerns, contributing to market volatility [4]. - Analysts warn that if the government's credibility is undermined, a broader sell-off of Japanese assets could ensue, reflecting a growing perception of economic chaos [6].

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告的內容概不負責，對 其準確性或完整性亦不發表任何聲明，並明確表示概不就因本公告全部或任何部分內 容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責任。 Global Mastermind Holdings Limited 環球大通集團有限公司 * （於開曼群島註冊成立之有限公司） （股份代號：8063） 有關復牌狀況之季度更新資料 本公告乃Global Mastermind Holdings Limited環球大通集團有限公司*（「本公司」，連同 其附屬公司，「本集團」）根據香港聯合交易所有限公司（「聯交所」）GEM證券上市規則 （「 GEM上市規則」）第17.10條及第17.26A條以及香港法例第571章證券及期貨條例第 XIVA部項下之內幕消息條文（定義見GEM上市規則）刊發。 茲提述本公司日期為二零二四年十月七日、二零二四年十月八日、二零二四年十月十七 日、二零二五年二月七日、二零二五年二月十日、二零二五年二月十八日、二零二五年 二月十九日、二零二五年二月二十八日、二零二五年四月一日、二零二五年五月十六 日、二零二五年八月十二日、二零二五年八月二十 ...

Core Insights - Emerging market trades, particularly long positions in Brazilian real and AI-related stocks, are raising concerns due to overcrowding risks [1][3] - Asset management firms are warning that valuations of Latin American currencies have deviated from fundamentals, indicating potential risks [1][6] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has seen a nearly 30% increase this year, marking its best performance since 2017, but past trends suggest a possible significant downturn could follow [3][4] Group 1: Emerging Market Concerns - Many emerging market sectors are showing signs of overheating, driven by factors such as Fed rate cuts and a softening dollar [3] - A recent HSBC survey indicated that 61% of investors are overweight in emerging market local currency bonds, a significant shift from a net underweight in June [3] - The potential for profit-taking as the year ends may lead to increased volatility in the foreign exchange market [3][4] Group 2: Specific Market Risks - Asian stock investors experienced risks associated with high valuations and crowded trades, particularly in AI stocks [4] - The Korean Composite Stock Price Index (Kospi) saw a significant drop despite a previous surge, highlighting the risks of concentrated positions in AI-related trades [4] - Lazard Asset Management's portfolio manager expressed caution after the tech stock sell-off, noting that low-quality companies have been outperforming high-quality ones, which historically does not last [5] Group 3: Currency and Bond Market Dynamics - Brazilian real has been a standout asset for carry trades, but recent indicators suggest a shift towards bearish sentiment [6] - Other Latin American currencies, such as Chilean, Mexican, and Colombian pesos, are also showing signs of overvaluation [6] - Frontier market bonds have benefited from a trend of investors moving away from U.S. assets, but concerns about liquidity in markets like Egypt and Ghana are emerging [7]