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常熟银行(601128):做小做散,高质发展
Tianfeng Securities· 2025-06-08 09:05
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Changshu Bank with a target price of 9.59 CNY, corresponding to a 0.91x PB for 2025 [5]. Core Views - Changshu Bank focuses on serving small businesses and individual entrepreneurs, emphasizing a "small and scattered" approach to deepen its presence in the inclusive finance sector [1][2]. - The bank benefits from a strong net interest income, with significant potential for improvement in non-interest income [2]. - The bank's asset quality is robust, supported by prudent risk control and sufficient provisioning, which enhances its ability to maintain stable dividends and internal capital replenishment [2][4]. - The macroeconomic policies promoting consumption and rural development are expected to favorably impact the bank's future growth [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Regional Advantages - Jiangsu Province, where Changshu Bank is located, shows strong economic growth, with a GDP of 13.7 trillion CNY in 2024, ranking second nationally with a growth rate of 6.85% [12][15]. - Changshu City is strategically positioned in the Yangtze River Delta, contributing significantly to regional industrial chains and financial activities [2][31]. 2. Financial Performance - The bank's revenue is primarily derived from net interest income, with projections indicating a net profit growth rate of 12.67%, 12.60%, and 12.17% for 2025-2027 [4]. - The bank's financial metrics for 2025 include an expected operating income of 117 billion CNY and a net profit of 43 billion CNY [4]. 3. Business Strategy - Changshu Bank has established a broad network of branches, with 170 branches as of 2024, focusing on local markets while expanding into other regions through village and town banks [49][50]. - The bank's strategy includes leveraging its "investment management bank" qualifications to acquire smaller banks, facilitating future credit business expansion [2][4]. 4. Future Outlook - The bank's digital transformation strategy aims to enhance its operational efficiency and service delivery, with a focus on small and micro-loans [44][45]. - The bank's commitment to supporting rural and small business financing aligns with national policies aimed at promoting economic development in these sectors [51].