太平洋证券发布研报称，重庆银行（601963）(01963)依托区域重大战略，对公业务驱动规模稳步增长; 同时负债成本有效管控支撑息差表现，资产质量指标持续改善。预计2025-2027年公司营业收入为 145.16、155.15、166.77亿元，归母净利润为53.63、57.47、62.14亿元，每股净资产为16.34、17.89、 19.35元，对应10月10日收盘价的PB估值为0.40、0.37、0.34倍。首次覆盖给予"增持"评级。 贷款增速强劲，对公业务深度受益区域战略 公司深度受益于"成渝地区双城经济圈"等区域战略，贷款投放保持高速增长。上半年公司贷款总额较年 初+13.63%，其中公司贷款表现尤为突出，较年初大幅+20.65%至3776.38亿元，成为拉动规模扩张的核 心引擎，零售贷款增速相对平缓，较年初+2.03%。贷款投向与区域发展战略紧密结合，上半年公司向 成渝地区双城经济圈提供信贷支持近1400亿元，服务西部陆海新通道建设融资余额超470亿元。 负债成本管控成效显著，净利差逆势扩张 2025年上半年公司净利差同比+8bp至1.35%，核心驱动力在于计息负债平均成本率同比大幅-36bp至 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pacific Securities reports that Chongqing Bank is experiencing steady growth in corporate business driven by regional strategic initiatives, effective management of liability costs supporting margin performance, and continuous improvement in asset quality. The bank's projected operating revenue for 2025-2027 is 14.516 billion, 15.515 billion, and 16.677 billion yuan, with net profit attributable to shareholders of 5.363 billion, 5.747 billion, and 6.214 billion yuan, respectively, leading to a PB valuation of 0.40, 0.37, and 0.34 times based on the closing price on October 10. The initial coverage rating is "Buy" [1]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 7.527 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.190 billion yuan, up 5.39% year-on-year. The annualized weighted average ROE was 11.52%, a decrease of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Loan Growth and Corporate Business - The company benefits significantly from regional strategies such as the "Chengdu-Chongqing Economic Circle," with strong loan growth. Total loans increased by 13.63% from the beginning of the year, with corporate loans rising by 20.65% to 377.638 billion yuan, becoming the main driver of scale expansion. Retail loan growth was more moderate, increasing by 2.03% [3]. Liability Cost Management - The company effectively managed liability costs, resulting in a net interest margin increase of 8 basis points to 1.35%. This was driven by a significant reduction in the average cost of interest-bearing liabilities, which fell by 36 basis points to 2.29%, exceeding the decline in the average yield on interest-earning assets by 28 basis points. The net interest spread for the first half of 2025 was 1.39%, down 3 basis points, with a notable decrease in customer deposit costs [4]. Non-Interest Income Challenges - Non-interest income has become a drag on performance, with net fee and commission income declining by 28.62% to 365 million yuan, primarily due to a 59.77% drop in income from agency wealth management services. The company faced challenges in its wealth management business amid the transition to net value-based products. However, it achieved 1.255 billion yuan in net trading and securities investment income, an increase of 7.63%, partially offsetting the decline in non-interest income [5]. Asset Quality Improvement - As of the end of the reporting period, the company's non-performing loan ratio decreased by 8 basis points to 1.17%, with both the proportion of special mention and overdue loans declining. The special mention ratio and overdue ratio were 2.05% and 1.58%, down 59 basis points and 15 basis points, respectively. The non-performing loan ratio for corporate loans decreased by 15 basis points to 0.75%, while the retail loan non-performing ratio increased by 30 basis points to 3.01%, mainly due to personal operating loans and credit cards. The provision coverage ratio increased by 3.19 percentage points to 248.27%, further strengthening the safety cushion [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Bank [1] Core Views - Multiple favorable factors are resonating for Chongqing Bank: 1. The expected decline in deposit costs and risk clearance is anticipated to outperform peers, indicating higher growth potential compared to 2024 2. A new leadership team will be in place in the second half of 2024, which is expected to drive the conversion of convertible bonds to equity 3. Growth driven by government financing and domestic demand is expected to be less affected by negative impacts such as tariffs, benefiting significantly from policy support [7][75] Market Data Summary - Current price: 11.00 CNY - 52-week price range: 6.53 - 11.26 CNY - Total market capitalization: 38,220.35 million CNY - Circulating market capitalization: 20,673.33 million CNY - Total shares: 347,457.72 thousand - Circulating shares: 187,939.33 thousand - Average daily trading volume: 178.15 million CNY - Monthly turnover rate: 0.64% [4] Performance Comparison - Chongqing Bank's performance relative to the CSI 300 index over different periods: - 1 Month: Chongqing Bank +17.0%, CSI 300 +4.3% - 3 Months: Chongqing Bank +22.2%, CSI 300 -1.2% - 12 Months: Chongqing Bank +58.3%, CSI 300 +5.0% [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027: - 2025: 14.3 billion CNY, growth rate 4.48% - 2026: 15.4 billion CNY, growth rate 7.86% - 2027: 16.6 billion CNY, growth rate 7.45% - Net profit forecast for 2025-2027: - 2025: 5.5 billion CNY, growth rate 7.40% - 2026: 5.8 billion CNY, growth rate 5.10% - 2027: 6.1 billion CNY, growth rate 5.61% - EPS forecast: - 2025: 1.51 CNY - 2026: 1.59 CNY - 2027: 1.68 CNY - P/E ratios: - 2025: 6.82 - 2026: 6.47 - 2027: 6.11 - P/B ratios: - 2025: 0.67 - 2026: 0.65 - 2027: 0.65 [7][73][74] Deposit Cost and Growth - The average cost of deposits is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 47 basis points compared to 2023 - The bank's deposit structure is shifting, with a notable decline in long-term deposit rates, which is anticipated to enhance the bank's growth potential [12][16][18] Loan Contribution and Sector Focus - From 2020 to 2024, infrastructure-related sectors contributed significantly to loan growth, with average compound growth rates of 31.1% for leasing and business services, and 22.2% for water and environmental public facilities [18] - The bank's focus on government-related loans is expected to provide a stable growth foundation amid current economic conditions [23] Consumer Finance and Growth Potential - Chongqing Bank has a strong presence in consumer finance, with significant growth in self-operated online consumer products, including a 100% year-on-year increase in "Jie E Loan" balances by the end of 2024 [46]