Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Chongqing Bank [1] Core Views - Multiple favorable factors are resonating for Chongqing Bank: 1. The expected decline in deposit costs and risk clearance is anticipated to outperform peers, indicating higher growth potential compared to 2024 2. A new leadership team will be in place in the second half of 2024, which is expected to drive the conversion of convertible bonds to equity 3. Growth driven by government financing and domestic demand is expected to be less affected by negative impacts such as tariffs, benefiting significantly from policy support [7][75] Market Data Summary - Current price: 11.00 CNY - 52-week price range: 6.53 - 11.26 CNY - Total market capitalization: 38,220.35 million CNY - Circulating market capitalization: 20,673.33 million CNY - Total shares: 347,457.72 thousand - Circulating shares: 187,939.33 thousand - Average daily trading volume: 178.15 million CNY - Monthly turnover rate: 0.64% [4] Performance Comparison - Chongqing Bank's performance relative to the CSI 300 index over different periods: - 1 Month: Chongqing Bank +17.0%, CSI 300 +4.3% - 3 Months: Chongqing Bank +22.2%, CSI 300 -1.2% - 12 Months: Chongqing Bank +58.3%, CSI 300 +5.0% [5] Financial Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2025-2027: - 2025: 14.3 billion CNY, growth rate 4.48% - 2026: 15.4 billion CNY, growth rate 7.86% - 2027: 16.6 billion CNY, growth rate 7.45% - Net profit forecast for 2025-2027: - 2025: 5.5 billion CNY, growth rate 7.40% - 2026: 5.8 billion CNY, growth rate 5.10% - 2027: 6.1 billion CNY, growth rate 5.61% - EPS forecast: - 2025: 1.51 CNY - 2026: 1.59 CNY - 2027: 1.68 CNY - P/E ratios: - 2025: 6.82 - 2026: 6.47 - 2027: 6.11 - P/B ratios: - 2025: 0.67 - 2026: 0.65 - 2027: 0.65 [7][73][74] Deposit Cost and Growth - The average cost of deposits is expected to decrease significantly, with a projected reduction of 47 basis points compared to 2023 - The bank's deposit structure is shifting, with a notable decline in long-term deposit rates, which is anticipated to enhance the bank's growth potential [12][16][18] Loan Contribution and Sector Focus - From 2020 to 2024, infrastructure-related sectors contributed significantly to loan growth, with average compound growth rates of 31.1% for leasing and business services, and 22.2% for water and environmental public facilities [18] - The bank's focus on government-related loans is expected to provide a stable growth foundation amid current economic conditions [23] Consumer Finance and Growth Potential - Chongqing Bank has a strong presence in consumer finance, with significant growth in self-operated online consumer products, including a 100% year-on-year increase in "Jie E Loan" balances by the end of 2024 [46]