Core Insights - The national subsidy program (国补) is not being canceled, with a total subsidy of 300 billion yuan expected this year, of which 160 billion yuan has already been distributed, and 140 billion yuan will be allocated based on local consumption progress [1][7][8] - The subsidy program is experiencing a shift, focusing on new consumer sectors such as childcare, elderly care, and service consumption, indicating a search for new consumption stimulation points [1][22] - The program has led to a concentration of market share among leading brands, with a trend towards the top brands benefiting more significantly from the subsidies [1][15][22] Subsidy Program Dynamics - Some regions are experiencing limited availability of subsidies, leading to discussions about the potential cancellation of the program, but officials confirm that the program will continue [3][6][8] - The subsidy has resulted in a significant increase in retail sales, with a 4.6% year-on-year growth in social retail sales in Q1, and a notable 5.9% increase in March [10] - The program has also led to a surge in specific product categories, such as cameras, with sales increasing by 86% year-on-year during the 618 shopping festival [11] Market Impact - The subsidy has created a situation of overconsumption in durable goods, particularly in home appliances and 3C products, leading to a slowdown in growth for these categories in Q1 and Q2 [12][14] - Brands are increasingly focusing on high-priced products, with consumers willing to spend more on premium items rather than cheaper alternatives [16][17] - Platforms like JD.com have benefited significantly from the subsidies, with a reported increase in revenue from subsidized products, while competitors like Pinduoduo are adjusting their strategies to remain competitive [18][21] Future Outlook - The subsidy program is entering a new phase, with a redistribution of benefits among brands and platforms, and a potential emergence of new growth opportunities in different sectors [22][23] - Companies that previously benefited from the subsidies are now looking to expand their market presence through international sales and product diversification [24] - JD.com is exploring new growth avenues such as instant retail and travel services, while Pinduoduo is focusing on maintaining its competitive pricing strategy and enhancing operational efficiency [26][28]