北京时间4月28日分众传媒发布了2024年全年以及2025年一季度业绩。这次财报除了关注去年四季度、今年一季度（主要是Q1）的当期业绩表现之外，最大的关注 焦点就是若顺利（主要是监管审批）收购最"难缠"的竞对——新潮传媒之后，结合当下复杂的宏观环境，公司对未来的规划和增长预期会发生如何变化？ 核心要点如下： 1. 2024收官： 虽然机构调整后的预期不高，但第四季度收入显得更艰难一些，同比下滑7%。一季度收入同样略不及预期，足以体现去年底到今年初的环境恶劣。 2. Q1同样有压力： 对于一季度的"稳态"低增长，市场priced in了绝大部分。今年春节期间消费表现一般，年初以来的社零增速也是一个前低后高的缓慢爬升趋 势，因此对于一季度，市场未报太高期望。 3. 吃下新潮，利润率打开空间： 利润上四季度主要靠短期控费，以及非主业收益的预期差，最终净利润表现略微收回来了一些。不过，非主业的收益在海豚君看 来是要剔除不考虑的，单看核心经营利润，因为收入承压，还是弱于预期。 一季度核心经营利润并未miss太多，主要则得益于过去一年优化点位的战略下毛利率持续改善，梯媒毛利率、影院毛利率同比略有改善。此外就是费用严格控制 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][6] Core Views - The recovery of the supply side is driving industry growth, with content channels expected to contribute to growth [2][3] - The company has a comprehensive layout in the film industry chain, and the new management team is expected to empower a new growth phase [3][5] - The film industry is anticipated to enter a prosperous period starting in 2025, driven by an increase in domestic film quality and technological advancements [3][5] Company Overview - The company was established in 2005 and has developed a global layout in cinema and film investment. It faced challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and mergers and acquisitions, entering a low point from 2020 to 2022. However, it has seen a recovery in revenue and profit in 2023 [3][11] - The company’s revenue and profit are significantly influenced by the box office market cycle, with rapid growth from 2011 to 2019, followed by volatility from 2020 to 2022, and a strong recovery in 2023 [3][19] Industry Analysis - The film box office in 2024 is expected to decline by 22% year-on-year due to a lack of new films. However, the number of film registrations has been increasing since 2023, and 2025 is expected to be a significant year for domestic films [3][39] - The high operating leverage in the cinema industry means that companies are particularly affected by box office fluctuations, with poor performance expected in 2024 due to a lack of compelling new releases [3][42] Business Introduction - The cinema business is the main source of revenue for the company, maintaining a market share of 17.5% in 2024, the highest in the country. The revenue from cinema operations has ranged between 5 to 9 billion [4] - The content production business has fluctuating revenue between 400 to 800 million, while the gaming distribution business generates 300 to 450 million with a gross margin of 50% to 60% [4] Growth Analysis - The new controlling shareholder, China Ruyi, is expected to help the company enter a new expansion phase after distancing itself from the negative impacts of the Wanda Group's real estate business [5][6] - The release of high-quality domestic films is expected to continue driving industry recovery, with AI technology potentially enhancing content production efficiency [5][6] Profit Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The company is expected to see steady growth in its cinema segment and profit potential in its content segment, maintaining the "Outperform the Market" rating. The target price is set between 15.2 to 15.9 yuan, indicating a growth potential of 30% to 40% [6]