Core Insights - A sudden shortage of the kidney disease drug, Nefukang (Budesonide Enteric Capsules), has drawn significant market attention, highlighting the unmet demand among IgA nephropathy patients in China [1][3] - The drug, introduced and commercialized by Gensun Biopharma, is the first and only approved treatment for IgA nephropathy in China, with widespread shortages reported across multiple cities [1][3] - Gensun Biopharma is expected to achieve its first annual commercial profitability in 2024, driven by Nefukang's strong sales performance, which is projected to exceed 5 billion yuan [3][10] Company Overview - Gensun Biopharma has transitioned from a struggling company three years ago to a commercial success, with a projected annual revenue of over 7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a 461% year-on-year increase [10] - The company has adopted a License-in strategy, allowing it to bypass early-stage R&D and focus on late-stage products, which has contributed to its rapid commercialization [10][16] - Gensun Biopharma's stock has seen a significant rebound, increasing over 237% from its low point, reflecting market optimism about its future prospects [21] Market Demand - IgA nephropathy is a serious chronic kidney disease with a high prevalence in China, where the patient population is estimated to be in the millions, contrasting with the much smaller patient base in the U.S. [7][9] - The introduction of Nefukang has filled a critical gap in treatment options, as prior therapies were limited to off-label use of antihypertensive medications [5][7] - The drug's inclusion in the national health insurance scheme has significantly improved its affordability, with prices dropping from approximately 23,800 yuan to around 5,000 yuan per bottle [6][10] Supply Chain Challenges - The current supply shortage of Nefukang is attributed to its reliance on overseas production, with all manufacturing conducted by Patheon Pharmaceuticals in the U.S. [9] - Gensun Biopharma is in the process of establishing local production capabilities, but the transition is expected to take time due to regulatory and technical challenges [9][10] - The shortage has underscored the significant market demand for kidney disease treatments, as well as the vulnerabilities in the supply chain for innovative drugs [9][21] Investment Dynamics - Gensun Biopharma's major shareholder, Kangqiao Capital, has been reducing its stake in the company, selling over 13% of its shares in two large transactions earlier this year [19][21] - The rationale behind the sell-off includes optimizing the investor structure and responding to liquidity pressures from limited partners [21] - Despite the successful commercialization of Nefukang, the timing of Kangqiao Capital's divestment raises questions about the company's future trajectory and investor confidence [21][22]