Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is gradually recovering, with specific high-quality blue-chip stocks, such as China Merchants Bank (3968.HK), showing potential for technical breakthroughs, making it a noteworthy option for short to medium-term traders [1][4]. Price Performance - As of June 23, China Merchants Bank's stock closed at HKD 53.9, up 1.51% for the day, indicating a favorable technical position [1]. - The stock recorded a 5% price fluctuation over the past five trading days, with a trading volume of HKD 1.078 billion, reflecting high market interest [1]. - The stock is currently above several key moving averages, suggesting a strengthening overall trend [1]. Technical Indicators - The 10-day moving average is at HKD 52.74, while the 30-day and 60-day moving averages are at HKD 50.5 and HKD 47.4, respectively, forming a bullish pattern known as a "golden cross" [1]. - The RSI indicator is at 67, indicating a slight overbought condition but still showing strong buying momentum without signs of a pullback [1][2]. - Other momentum indicators, such as CCI, MACD, and various oscillators, are also signaling bullish trends [2]. Support and Resistance Levels - Short-term support is at HKD 51.5, with a stronger support zone at HKD 49.4, indicating solid downside protection [2]. - The first resistance target is set at HKD 55.5, with a further target of HKD 57.2 if the initial resistance is breached [2]. - The estimated probability of an upward movement is 53%, slightly favoring bullish strategies [2]. Overall Technical Summary - The technical indicators collectively suggest a "strong buy" rating, with a high intensity score of 17 on June 23, making it one of the few stocks in the Hong Kong market to receive such a high technical evaluation [2][4]. - If the market continues to stabilize and trading volume remains active, the stock is expected to break through the HKD 55.5 resistance level, initiating the next upward phase [4]. Derivative Products - Two call options linked to China Merchants Bank are analyzed for potential investment strategies: - The first product, issued by UBS (code 17405), has a strike price of HKD 61.55 and an expiration date of November 24, 2025, with a premium of 18.11% and approximately 7.5 times leverage, suitable for conservative investors [5][6]. - The second product, issued by Citigroup (code 16652), has a lower premium of 14.16% and a higher leverage of 12.6 times, making it more suitable for aggressive investors looking to capitalize on short-term price movements [6][8]. Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider entering positions near support levels (e.g., HKD 51.5) with initial target prices set between HKD 55.5 and HKD 57.2, while placing stop-loss orders below HKD 49.4 to manage risk [4][8]. - The two call options provide different risk-return profiles, allowing investors to choose based on their risk tolerance and investment horizon [8].