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永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 2025/8/15 | 麥嘉嘉 | 研究部主管 | avis.mak@sinopac.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 張雪婷 | 研究部經理 | samantha.cheung@sinopac.com | | 林仲全 | 研究部資深專員 | kobe.lin@sinopac.com | 永豐金證券亞洲研究部晨訊 永豐金證券亞洲研究部 -今日市埸焦點及策略 今日市埸主要焦點 股市及產品投資策略 1 2 • 美股高位整固｜標指連續3日創歷史新高 • 科技股領漲｜微軟與Meta業績優異，推動科技板塊 • 恒生指數連續上漲｜港股估值持續具吸引力 • 騰訊季績勝預期 ｜ AI 成為對騰訊新一輪估值重估的核心驅動力 • 資金續流入｜資金偏好結構性分化，高股息（能源、電信、銀行）、 硬科技（半導體、AI、創新藥） • 港股成交額屢創新高｜上半年港股通淨流入額已達8,200億港元 • 港股估值具吸引力｜恒指P/E約11.7倍 • 港股呈結構性分化特徵｜消費、金融、能源及黃金等板塊輪動活躍 • 投資策略｜聚焦業績，建議維持高比例AI/科技術類資產，兼顧高股息 永豐金證券亞洲研究 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to challenge the 26,000 point mark due to stable economic performance in mainland China and a lack of willingness to implement further economic stimulus measures [1] - The agreement between China and the US to extend the tariff truce and the active trading in Hong Kong stocks contribute to a positive risk appetite [1] - The upcoming earnings reports from major technology stocks could provide momentum for the market [1] Macro Focus - In July, industrial production, consumption, and fixed asset investment in mainland China all showed signs of slowing down, with fixed asset investment reaching a five-year low [2][7] - The People's Bank of China is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic growth [7] - Hong Kong's GDP growth for Q2 was 3.1%, maintaining the annual growth forecast at 2% to 3% [7] Company News - China Hongqiao's mid-term profit increased by 35% to 12.4 billion RMB, exceeding expectations [2] - Standard Chartered's stock price fell due to allegations from US lawmakers [3] - Huahong Semiconductor plans to acquire Huahong Microelectronics, with A-shares suspended from trading [3] Sector Highlights - The mobile device sector is anticipating the launch of Apple's iPhone 17 on September 9 [6] - The biopharmaceutical sector is benefiting from adjustments in commercial insurance for innovative drugs [6] - The humanoid robotics sector is seeing accelerated adoption due to new product launches at the World Robot Conference [6] International Market Insights - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, indicating a cautious approach towards future rate cuts due to high inflation uncertainty [3] - The US retail sales in July increased by 0.5%, marking the tenth consecutive month of growth [8] - The consumer confidence index in the US unexpectedly declined in August, reflecting concerns over tariffs [8] Investment Trends - Significant inflow of capital from mainland investors into Hong Kong stocks, with net purchases reaching a historical high of 35.9 billion HKD [7] - The overall investment sentiment remains positive, driven by low valuations in Hong Kong stocks and the rise of technology companies [7]

Core Viewpoint - HSBC's stock price is currently around 100.6 HKD, showing increased short-term volatility with a 4.7% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating a tug-of-war between bulls and bears at a critical level [1][2]. Technical Analysis and Key Levels - Support levels for HSBC are identified at 96.5 HKD (short-term support) and 92.3 HKD (strong support), while resistance levels are at 104.4 HKD (recent high) and 108.5 HKD (yearly target) [2]. - The 10-day moving average (98.41 HKD) and 30-day moving average (98.16 HKD) have formed a "golden cross," but the stock price is nearing the upper Bollinger Band, making the ability to break through the psychological barrier of 100 HKD a focal point [2]. - There is speculation on whether HSBC will first retrace to the 96.5 HKD support if the broader Hong Kong market weakens, or if it will benefit from interest rate hike expectations to test higher levels [2]. Recent Performance and Investor Sentiment - In August, HSBC's stock price rose nearly 10% after a significant drop at the end of July, stabilizing around the 100 HKD mark [4]. - Investors are divided, with some seeing a double-top formation that could lead to a drop towards 90 HKD, while others believe the stock is on a stable upward trajectory [4]. Product Review and Strategy Insights - Recent product performance shows that UBS bull certificates have significantly outperformed the underlying stock, with one product rising 7% and another 10% despite only a 0.2% increase in the stock price [5]. - In the current market environment, investors are encouraged to consider UBS call options with a leverage of 17.3 times, particularly suitable for aggressive investors anticipating a breakout [7]. - For bearish investors, options with lower leverage and favorable implied volatility are also available, providing a range of choices depending on market outlook [7][11]. Market Volatility and Trading Opportunities - The current market volatility has increased the risk associated with bull and bear certificates, necessitating close monitoring of the distance between the stock price and the recovery price [11].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC recently reported a net profit that slightly exceeded market expectations, primarily driven by an expansion in net interest margin, leading several investment banks to raise their target prices for the stock [1] Financial Performance - HSBC's net profit was positively influenced by an increase in net interest margin, which has attracted income-focused investors due to rumors of a potential increase in dividend yield [1] - The stock price is approaching the 100 HKD mark, with a support level at 96.8 HKD and a deeper support level at 93.5 HKD, while the first resistance level is at 103.1 HKD and a higher resistance at 106.4 HKD [1] Technical Analysis - The overall technical indicators for HSBC are summarized as "neutral," with a strength of 10, indicating some medium to long-term support [1] - Multiple moving averages are signaling a "buy," while several oscillators are in a "neutral" state, with the RSI value at 61, reflecting a mixed short-term outlook [1] Investment Products - For investors optimistic about HSBC breaking through resistance, options include the Bank of China call warrant (16930) with a leverage of 16.5 times and a strike price of 115.98 HKD, and the UBS call warrant (16458) with a leverage of 17.2 times, both offering favorable pricing and implied volatility [6][7] - For bearish investors, the UBS put warrant (18811) has a leverage of 5.1 times with a strike price of 94.39 HKD, while the Bank of China put warrant (19033) has a leverage of 5.4 times, both presenting lower premiums and implied volatility [7][8] Market Sentiment - The market is closely monitoring the impact of global economic slowdown on HSBC's credit quality, which could pose risks despite the current positive performance indicators [1] - The stock's recent performance shows a 4.2% fluctuation over the past five days, indicating relative stability in short-term movements but still allowing for operational space [1]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the US ISM services index fell to 50.1 in July, indicating a near stagnation in the services sector [9][11] - The report notes that the US trade deficit narrowed to $60.2 billion in June, the lowest level in 2023, with imports decreasing by 3.7% and exports dropping by 0.5% [11] - AMD reported adjusted earnings of $899 million for Q2, which fell short of expectations, although the company anticipates AI revenue to reach at least several billion dollars for the year [11][24] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for July was reported at 49.2, indicating a continued deterioration in the business environment, although the rate of decline has slowed [13] - The Chinese services PMI rose to 52.6 in July, the highest in 14 months, surpassing expectations [13] - China Tower's net profit for the first half of the year increased by 8% to 5.8 billion yuan, with revenue rising by 2.8% to 49.6 billion yuan [13] Group 3 - Lenovo is positioned to benefit from a wave of corporate upgrades as Windows 10 support ends in October 2025, with IDC forecasting a 4.3% increase in commercial PC shipments [21] - Alibaba's Hema retail platform is shutting down its membership store business, indicating a strategic shift to focus on its core operations [13] - The report recommends buying shares of Lenovo at a target price of $12.72, citing its leading market share in AI PCs [21]

Market Performance - Hang Seng Index fell by 403 points, or 1.6%, closing at 24,773 points[1] - Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 42 points, or 1.18%, closing at 3,573 points[2] - S&P 500 decreased by 23 points, or 0.4%, closing at 6,339 points, marking the third consecutive day of decline[2] Currency and Economic Indicators - Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HKD 39.25 billion during New York session due to a weak HKD[1] - People's Bank of China conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of CNY 283.2 billion at a steady rate of 1.4%[2] - July's official manufacturing PMI in China fell to 49.3, below expectations[2] Real Estate and Corporate Performance - Top 100 real estate companies in China reported total sales of CNY 2.07 trillion in the first seven months, a year-on-year decline of 13.3%[4] - Internet and related services companies in China generated revenue of CNY 961.3 billion in H1, a year-on-year growth of 3.1%[4] - Sinopec expects H1 2025 net profit to be between CNY 20.1 billion and CNY 21.6 billion, a year-on-year decline of 39.5% to 43.7%[6] Automotive Sector - XPeng Motors delivered 36,717 smart electric vehicles in July, a year-on-year increase of 229%[7] - Cumulative deliveries exceeded 800,000 units as of July, with a total of 233,906 units delivered in the first seven months, marking a 270% year-on-year growth[7]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces short-term resistance at 25,735 points, with limited corporate profit improvement and a lack of strong economic stimulus from mainland China [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market indicates a relatively positive risk appetite, with capital rotating among different sectors [2] - The U.S. and China have initiated a new round of trade negotiations, agreeing to extend the 90-day tariff truce reached in mid-May [2] Macro Focus - China's official manufacturing PMI for July decreased to 49.3, falling short of expectations and indicating contraction for four consecutive months [11] - Hong Kong's GDP for Q2 is estimated to grow by 3.1%, surpassing expectations, while retail sales growth in June was below expectations at 0.7% [12] - The U.S. Federal Reserve maintained interest rates in July, with expectations of two rate cuts this year, totaling 0.5 percentage points [6] Company News - Tencent Holdings (0700) is leveraging gaming as a key driver for breakthroughs in AI technology [5] - Prosus has initiated a reduction of its stake in Meituan (3690), cashing out nearly 2 billion yuan in the past two weeks [5] - XPeng Motors (9868) reported a 2.3-fold increase in July deliveries, setting a new monthly record [5] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (0386) issued a profit warning, expecting a drop of at least 40% in first-half earnings [5] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,773, down 1.6%, with a year-to-date increase of 23.5% [7] - The average daily trading volume in Hong Kong's stock market increased by 82% year-on-year, reaching 2,402 billion [12] - The number of new IPOs in Hong Kong surged, with 42 new listings raising a total of 107.1 billion, a sevenfold increase compared to the previous year [12]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.5%, aligning with expectations [9] - The US GDP for Q2 grew by 3%, surpassing expectations, primarily due to a significant increase in net exports [11] - The A-share market shows strong revaluation momentum, with the CSI 300 index's historical PE and PB ratios at 12.3x and 1.24x, respectively, indicating a cheap valuation [9][11] Market Focus and Strategy - The A-share market is expected to have long-term value due to favorable policies, despite potential short-term adjustments [9] - Recommendations include gradually accumulating A-share ETFs due to valuation re-evaluation [9] - The Hang Seng Index experienced a significant drop, closing at 25,176 points, with analysts suggesting it may breach the 25,000 mark [13] Company Highlights - Meta Platforms Inc. reported a 36% year-on-year increase in net profit and a 22% rise in revenue for Q2, exceeding expectations [11] - HSBC has a pessimistic outlook on Hong Kong's commercial real estate, increasing provisions significantly [13] - The company Giant Bio (2367) is positioned as a leader in the collagen market, with a projected market size of 108.3 billion yuan by 2027 [21] Economic Data Overview - The US GDP growth rate for Q2 was reported at 3%, with PCE inflation at 2.1% [11] - China's manufacturing PMI for July is at 49.7, indicating contraction, while the non-manufacturing PMI is at 50.2, suggesting slight expansion [19] - Hong Kong's GDP growth for Q2 is reported at 2.8% year-on-year [19] Stock Recommendations - Buy recommendation for Giant Bio at $57.10, with a target price of $66.20 and a stop-loss at $54.72 [21] - Starbucks Corporation reported Q3 revenue of $9.456 billion, a 3.8% year-on-year increase, exceeding market expectations [23] - FTAI Aviation Ltd. saw a 52.4% year-on-year revenue increase to $676 million, indicating strong growth potential [24]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index is expected to rise towards 26,000 points due to stable economic performance in mainland China during the first half of the year, with limited willingness to implement further economic stimulus measures and modest corporate profit improvements [2] - Active trading in the Hong Kong market reflects a positive risk appetite, with capital rotating across different sectors [2] - The initiation of a new round of trade negotiations between China and the US, along with the extension of the 90-day tariff ceasefire agreement, has contributed to a more favorable outlook for the Hang Seng Index [2] Company News - JD Group (9618) has made a takeover offer to European electronics retailer Ceconomy [4] - Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (3750) reported a 33% increase in interim profit, exceeding expectations [4] - HSBC Holdings (0005) reported a 27% decline in pre-tax profit, falling short of expectations, and announced a $3 billion share buyback [4] - Prada (1913) saw a slight increase of less than 1% in half-year profit, which was below expectations [4] - WuXi AppTec (2359) is raising approximately 7.7 billion yuan through a discounted share placement [4] Economic Indicators - The US Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with indications that they are not prepared to cut rates yet, despite a slowdown in economic activity [4] - The Fed's dot plot suggests two rate cuts totaling 50 basis points this year, with a cautious outlook on future inflation [4] - The US is engaged in trade negotiations with multiple countries, with some progress reported, although uncertainties remain [4] Macro Focus - The Central Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China has decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session in October, focusing on economic development and strategic planning for the next five years [8] - The meeting emphasized the importance of maintaining strategic determination and confidence in China's economic resilience and potential [8] - The Chinese government is expected to implement more proactive fiscal policies to stimulate domestic demand and consumption [9] Investment Insights - The report highlights the potential for investment in sectors such as construction, brokerage, and export-oriented companies due to ongoing trade negotiations and infrastructure projects [7] - The focus on enhancing domestic consumption and addressing economic challenges presents opportunities for companies involved in consumer goods and services [9]