Summary of Key Points from the Metals Weekly Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **gold and precious metals** market, highlighting insights from the **LBMA/LPPM Global Precious Metals Conference** held in Kyoto, Japan, in late October 2025 [1][3]. Core Insights - **Long-term Bullish Sentiment**: Despite a recent correction in gold prices to approximately **$4,000/oz**, there remains a strong bullish sentiment among market participants for gold and precious metals in the medium term. Conference attendees forecast an average gold price of **$4,980/oz** by the next LBMA conference in October 2026, reflecting a **24% increase** from current levels [4][5]. - **ETF Activity**: Recent outflows from global gold ETFs totaled around **35 tonnes**, which is only about half of the previous week's inflow of **62 tonnes**. This indicates that ETF holdings are relatively sticky, although there is a risk of further outflows if gold prices drop below **$3,900/oz** [15][19]. - **Central Bank Purchases**: Central banks reported net purchases of **220 tonnes** in Q3 2025, a **30% increase** quarter-over-quarter, marking a strong buying trend that is expected to continue. Brazil and the Bank of Korea are highlighted as significant buyers [20][19]. - **Jewelry Demand**: Jewelry demand is currently weak, down **19%** in tonnage year-over-year, but this decline aligns with expectations given the price rally. A shift towards bars and coins, particularly in China, is helping to offset some of this weakness [35][41]. - **Recycling Supply**: The growth in recycled gold supply remains modest, with a **1% decrease** quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025. A significant drop in gold prices could trigger more selling from holders [42][50]. Additional Important Insights - **Portfolio Allocation**: Gold's share in total assets under management (AUM) has risen to **2.8%**, with potential for this to increase to **4-5%** in the coming years as investor interest grows [29][28]. - **Emerging Markets**: China's pilot program allowing insurance firms to invest in gold could translate to approximately **210 tonnes** of gold, indicating a potential increase in demand from this sector [34]. - **Market Dynamics**: The report notes a consumer shift from jewelry to investment bars and coins, particularly in Asia, driven by changes in tax structures that favor investment gold over jewelry [41][34]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for gold and precious metals remains positive, driven by strong central bank demand, sticky ETF holdings, and a potential increase in portfolio allocations. However, risks such as price corrections and weak jewelry demand are factors to monitor closely [19][35][42].